0910AW 同主题写作第五期 ARGUMENT65 by "大洋彼岸之风"_Virtual_Pro

Virtual_ProUID: 2560768

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 432
TIME: 00:47:27
DATE: 2009-6-13 11:26:05

In this argument, the author, the president of a chain of cheese stores, analyzed various reasons and therefore concluded that to improve profits in all of their stores they should concentrate on domestic cheeses and stop stocking imported cheese. To support the conclusion, the author pointed out that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheeses. Besides, the author cited a survey as evidence that will strengthen his reduction. The author's analysis and reduction seem sound at first glance, however could not stand after carefully analysis.

First of all, the example that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheeses from Wisconsin could not give a logical support the author's conclusion. We could only infer that these domestic cheeses were sold well in newest stores, however, they might be not so popular in the earlier-founded stores. In addition, the large selling number does not mean the high profit because of the different individual profit between domestic cheese and imported cheese. If an imported cheese could make much more profit than a domestic cheese, a little less selling number does not count.

Secondly, the survey cited by the author does not either make the conclusion sound. The survey indicated an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. However, we can easily extrapolate that the subscribers of the magazine could only account for part of the cheeses consumers. It is possible that imported cheeses consumers come from the high-income families and they would never subscribe this kind of magazine. Furthermore, the magazine who conducts the survey is related to cheese market and therefore could not keep neutral. So we will consequently question whether the result of the survey is the real reflection of the cheese market.

Last but not least, the author mentioned that, their company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, so they should forsake the imported cheese market. However, as mentioned above the profit not only relates to the cost, but also concerns with the income. So the reduction expenses may not lead to the increase in profit. If imported cheeses could bring income that is more than the expenses, they will also bring profits. Why should the imported cheese market be dropped without sufficient evidences?

After several further analyses of the author's argument, we could find many logical flaws that make the argument vulnerable. To strengthen the logic of the argument the author should provide more selling figures of wide-range stores, a survey conducted by a neutral organization on more representative cheese consumers and a more accurate computation on cost and income.