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本帖最后由 水岩663 于 2009-6-15 18:37 编辑
今天才写第二期同主题写作,希望还来得及~
ARGUMENT173
The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn.
'Our poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that they devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers.'
In the argument presented above, the arguer concludes that they should decrease their emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying international stories on their magazine covers. Although this argument might seem reasonable at first glance, it is in fact ill convinced--in light of several critical respects. The reasons are stated as follows.
First of all, the arguer relies on the assumption that their competing news-magazine issues sell well or made profits after decreasing the number of cover international news stories. Although it is entirely possible, the arguer offers no evidence to substantiate this critical assumption. It is very likely that their competing news-magazines also sell poor, even worse than them, after they decreased the number of cover stories about international news. If so, they need not learn experience from their competing news magazines. Obviously the arguer's reasoning is untenable unless the arguer can convince me that this scenario is very unlikely.
Secondly, the arguer assumes that the international news covers was the only reason contribute to their poorest selling, yet this need not be the case, especially considering that the arguer does not supply any evidence to confirm this assumption. It is quite possible that the whole magazine market is regulated or in recession thus people have to tighten their belt though reading news on internet, possibly the market keeps booming but their company’s prompting is poor. Moreover, common sense tells us that the quality of the magazine is the life of the magazine. It is hard to image that such magazine will be sellable with contents out of date or out of people’s taste, or with tendentious accounts of national events. So without considering and ruling out such and other alternative explanations, the arguer's recommendation of refraining from displaying such stories on magazine covers is questionable.
Finally, the arguer further assumes that their cost of maintaining foreign bureaus to report on international news will keep on increasing and therefore they should decrease emphasis on international news. Nevertheless what the arguer assumes, in reality, would not happen. Even if the cost of maintaining foreign bureaus will increase in the foreseeable future, it does not necessarily indicate that they should decrease their emphasis on international news. Since this unwise decision would bring a series of matters, for example, their foreign bureaus could not work effectively on the one hand, on the other, readers interested in reading international news would not focus on Newsbeat at all, especially considering that other magazine had decreased the number of international cover stories. Therefore, to reach the cited conclusion, the arguer must explain either why none of these alternatives is available or why none of them is able to sustain.
In sum, the arguer's argument is a rather sweeping statement, since it is not based on reliable evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer should provide more concrete evidence, reason more convincingly, and take the above-mentioned possibilities into account. |
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