0910G【Try Best】第二小组 argument65 by tianshi02

tianshi02UID: 2362794

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 458          TIME: 01:00:00          DATE: 2009-6-21 23:35:27

In this memo, the president concludes that the best way to improve profits in all their stores would be to stop storing various imported cheese and focus on domestic cheese. He gives sales information in the last year at the newest store and cites a recent survey result to substantiate his conclusion. However,  the argument is fallacious in several respects.

First and foremost, it is presumptuous to generalize the inadequate sales information from the newest store to the stores all over the country. The popularity of domestic cheddar cheeses, though seen in the last year, might not exhibit continual merit in the future. It is simply too short to asses their strength objectively. Even assuming the strength of domestic cheeses, we cannot immediately accept that the stores throughout the country should concentrate on domestic cheeses, without the assumption that all stores' best-selling products are domestic cheeses. In fact, we should decide everything on a case-by-case basis. People in different regions are very likely to have disparate preferences for cheeses, depending on their tastes, local taxes, food culture... Without accounting for such differences, any analogy is unwarranted.

Second, the survey result lends little credible support to the intended conclusion. We are not supposed to count on a survey from any magazine. After all, the goal of the magazines is to cater to the interest of the readers. For this reason, the degree of correctness of magazines' surveys is highly doubtable. Assume that this recent survey indeed reflects the trend of growing preference for domestic cheeses among their subscribers, the scope of the subjects is too narrow for a convincing argument. The subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine are unlikely to be a significant proportion of cheese consumers in the country. Therefore, the recent survey doesn't serve as a reliable piece of evidence.

Last, does the save of expenses on stocking imported cheeses outweigh the profits made from selling them? We are not informed the sales condition of imported cheeses. The arguer's line of reasoning seems to be that since the domestic cheeses are of relative advantage, using the room previously for imported cheeses to stock more domestic cheeses is beneficial. However, this reasoning at least involves the assumption that the surplus of domestic cheeses would not influence their prices in the market, which is certainly not guaranteed.

In the final analyses, the arguer's generalization from sales condition at the newest store to the stores in the entire country is problematic. Besides, the survey cited by the arguer lacks credibility. Moreover, the judgment of the president involves unsubstantiated assumptions. The argument would be much stronger is the president presents evidence showing that the newest store is representative of  countrywide sales condition and that showing the authority generality of the the survey, in addition to providing the current sales information of imported cheeses.