【thatll】iBT备考日志

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thatllUID: 2538832

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thatllUID: 2538832

【好文章，共欣赏】
Can China Save the World?

By Bill Powell Monday, Aug. 10, 200 9
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Going up
Viewed from the skyline of Pudong, across the river from old Shanghai, China looks like a picture of economic dynamism








On a steamy saturday afternoon just outside Shanghai, Zhang Yi is in a blessedly cool General Motors showroom, kicking the tires of the company's newer models. He's not there to beat the heat. He drives a small Volkswagen now and wants to upgrade. A middle manager at a state-owned steel company, Zhang has no worries about his job or China's economy. "Things are still pretty good," he says. "I have no problem now affording one of these," nodding toward the array of gleaming new Buicks nearby
(Read "China's Booming Car Market Shifts into Reverse.")

There aren't a lot of places in the world these days where consumers speak with that kind of confidence. With the U.S., Japan and all of Europe mired in the worst global recession in 30 years, China has shown a restorative strength that six months ago many doubted it had. A devastating slump in exports crippled growth late last year, but on the back of a $586 billion government stimulus program — about 13% of GDP, spread over two years — China has snapped back. The economy grew 7.9% in the second quarter and will now probably expand 8% or more this year. Evidence of increasing momentum appears almost every day. Factory production has begun to edge up, in part because Chinese consumers continue to spend money at a healthy pace. Auto sales, helped significantly by government subsidies for small-car purchases, hit an all-time record in April and will easily surpass those in the U.S. this year. Overall, retail sales in China this year are up 16%.
(Read "Is China's Economy Strong Enough To Save the World?")

Numbers alone do not capture the sense that the balance of global economic power is shifting eastward. There have been several moments that seemed to crystallize the zeitgeist, none more memorable than U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's speech in June before the best and the brightest at Peking University, the Harvard of China. Not long ago, students there would have been the most respectful and polite of audiences. Yet when Geithner tried to reassure one questioner that China's investments in U.S. government debt were "very safe," the response was perhaps an indication of the onset of a new economic order: the students laughed.

The U.S., the unquestioned leader of the global economy, is now in the midst of a disorienting shift in economic policy, away from the let-it-rip form of capitalism that has guided it for almost 30 years and toward more overt government control and regulation of huge swaths of the economy. No one yet can safely say whether this is wise, but in the U.S. it is certainly the stuff of increasingly fierce debate. No such doubts are evident in China, where the government reacted to the crisis with alacrity and the economy is now responding in kind.

That's why, for global companies like General Motors, China is no longer the future. It's the present. Of the world's 10 biggest economies, China's is the only one that is growing, and it could soon surpass Japan's to become the world's second largest. The Shanghai exchange has soared more than 80% this year, by far the best performance among major markets. Nations that depend on producing commodities, such as Australia and Brazil, have benefited immensely over the past six months as demand from China has driven up the price of raw materials. Helped by trade with China, Asia's export-driven economies are sputtering back to life. Overall, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that in the three years from 2008 to 2010, China will, astonishingly, account for almost three-quarters of the world's economic growth. Not surprisingly, China has now become the focus of a world that is looking for a way out of the swamp. As Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie puts it, "Everyone wants to know the same thing: Can China save the world?"

Trading Places
A few years ago, that question — and the notion that China could drive global growth — would have seemed absurd. After all, China's economy was dependent on manufacturing, which was in turn dependent on demand from the U.S., the world's undisputed economic locomotive. But that engine remains sidetracked. The IMF predicts the U.S. economy will contract 2.6% this year. American home prices continue to fall in some cities, while the unemployment rate has soared to 9.5%, the highest since 1983. The U.S.'s much ballyhooed stimulus plan has so far yielded little measurable benefit, save putting some spark back in stock markets. The absence of real signs of recovery has Washington discussing the possibility of yet another round of stimulus spending, despite a ballooning federal budget deficit.
Read "China Takes on the World."
See The China Blog.

The speed and relative success so far of China's stimulus stands in stark contrast with that of the U.S. According to a recent study by the World Bank, Beijing's government spending will generate more than 80% of the country's overall economic growth this year. This is partly because China was already in the midst of a nationwide infrastructure program when the recession hit. Emergency spending measures simply added to existing schemes already under way. In other words, the projects really were shovel-ready, and the money hit the streets quickly — and in large dollops. Outlays on new railway construction, for example, were $41 billion last year. They will be $88 billion this year. Says one senior FORTUNE 500 executive: "In the U.S., NIMBY [not in my backyard] is still the order of the day, whereas in China it's more like IMBY. They build where they want, when they want. And they move fast."
(Read "A New Deal for China?")

China's recovery and growing economic importance have led some to suggest that global institutions such as the Group of Eight — the U.S., the U.K., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia — are becoming obsolete; that the only dialogue that really matters going forward is the conversation between the "G-2": China and the U.S. On July 27, President Barack Obama appeared to acknowledge this when, addressing participants in high-level talks between the two countries, he said Washington's relationship with Beijing would "shape the 21st century." In recent months, Beijing has started to throw its weight around. China seeks — and will almost certainly soon get — greater voting rights in the IMF. In June, China agreed to buy up to $50 billion in bonds issued by the IMF to boost the fund's capacity to deal with the global financial crisis. Earlier this year, Chinese leaders, worried about the strength of the U.S. dollar and the safety of their own $763.5 billion investment in U.S. Treasury Department debt, called for the creation of an alternative to the greenback as a global reserve currency. More recently, Beijing has signaled an intention to slowly establish its own currency, the renminbi, as a dollar alternative in international trade by providing subsidies for Chinese companies to price their exports in renminbi. One economist, Qu Hongbin of HSBC in Hong Kong, goes so far as to say that 40% to 50% of China's overall trade flows could be settled in renminbi by 2012 (though few other economists believe this will happen anywhere near that fast). This willingness to make its positions known publicly and push other governments to see things China's way "is very different from 10 years ago, when Beijing was much quieter and more low-profile," says Jun Ma, an economist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong.
(See China covers.)

Indeed, China is increasingly open about both its ambitions and its concerns over U.S. economic policy, given its position as Washington's largest foreign creditor. Beijing never signed on to what became known in the late 1990s as the Washington Consensus on global economic policy, which called for free trade, privatization, light-touch regulation, prudent fiscal policies and — at least as many interpreted the consensus — free capital flows. The U.S. Treasury, in the wake of the credit meltdown, has put forward a plan to enhance regulation of its own capital markets, but that is unlikely to prevent Beijing from continuing to push for the IMF to take a greater role in policing global markets. At its core, despite embracing many aspects of the market, China runs a top-down, command-and-control economy, and its success so far in skating through the recession relatively cleanly may encourage other developing countries to adopt its brand of capitalism.

Not So Fast
still, the best possible answer to the question of whether China can save the world is: Not yet. Plenty of economists doubt that China's economy is as sound as it appears or truly on the road to a sustained recovery. And many more dismiss the chatter about China as the world's economic savior as hopelessly premature.
China's overall economic vigor may continue to impress, but there are questions surrounding the quality of its performance. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, is giving great gobs of money to state-owned banks that, with Beijing's forceful encouragement, are lending to state-owned companies participating in infrastructure construction. Skeptics are frightened by the amount of cash being shoveled out the doors. The central bank recently announced that new loans in June totaled $224 billion. That was more than double the previous month's amount and brought new bank lending in the first six months of the year to nearly $1.1 trillion, exceeding the total for all of 2008.
Read "Why China's State-owned Companies Are Making a Comeback."
See pictures of life on the fringes of the People's Republic.

To optimists, the June data showed just how determined the Chinese government is to implement effective monetary countermeasures to fight the downturn. As Peking University finance professor Michael Pettis says, China is "throwing everything including the kitchen sink'' at the problem. There is no question that as a result of the flood of financing, a lot of Chinese have jobs they otherwise wouldn't. But, as Grant's Interest Rate Observer, an influential Wall Street newsletter, points out in its latest issue, "Massive injections of money and credit ... are always bullish before they are bearish." The newsletter draws worrying parallels between China's current credit boom and the gush of lending that produced the U.S. housing bubble, the collapse of which devastated the financial sector and triggered the global credit crisis and current recession.


There are certainly signs that some aspects of China's recovery are ephemeral. Part of the reason China's stock market has soared is that Chinese companies have received so much cheap financing that they have dumped proceeds into the equity market for lack of better alternatives. Andrew Barber, Asia strategist at Research Edge, a New Haven, Conn., investment-research firm, estimates that up to 30% of new bank lending this year has wound its way into equities. Why isn't the money going into new businesses? The evidence suggests that in key parts of the economy growth remains anemic, particularly the important export-manufacturing sector, which continues to suffer from the reduction in global demand. According to a report from Fitch Ratings in the U.S., Chinese lending continues to accelerate even though corporate profits overall are shrinking — suggesting that China may be incubating its own financial crisis that could be triggered when the adrenal rush of the stimulus wears off.
(Read "Is a China Stock Bubble Forming?")

Little Big China
Those caveats are important. But China's technocrats are well aware of the risks they are running. "They came into this [crisis period] with eyes wide open," says Barber, recognizing that loans being granted in a relatively weak economic climate could start to go bad in droves. The country's once shaky financial sector was cleaned up several years ago — in 2007, nonperforming loans amounted to just 3% of total bank assets — and vehicles set up to deal with China's last banking crisis still exist. In other words, Beijing thinks its financial system is strong enough to handle the risks of its very loose monetary policy.

To be sure, even if darker scenarios never unfold and China's economy continues to power ahead, it will probably not, on its own, be enough to drag the rest of the world into a recovery. Size matters. The U.S. has a $14 trillion economy; China's is $4.4 trillion. The U.S. accounted for nearly 21% of total global GDP last year; China just 6.4%. Chinese consumption, in other words, is growing — but is still insufficient to lift the world's advanced economies out of recession. Consumer spending drives less than 40% of China's GDP; in the U.S. before the bust, the consumer accounted for almost 70%. With American shoppers now on the sidelines — the U.S. savings rate has soared from zero to nearly 7% in the past nine months as consumers have closed their wallets — the world desperately needs someone to step into that void.
(Read "China Won't Ride to World's Economic Rescue.")

China can help. But it remains a relatively poor country, with an annual per capita income of $6,000, compared with $39,000 in the U.S. and $33,400 in the E.U. To be solidly middle class in China's big cities is to have an income of about $12,000. Brisk though auto sales may be, most Chinese still can't afford a Volkswagen or a Buick, let alone a BMW. Even as China's consumers feel richer, their share of its economy may not change much until Beijing enacts reforms to the health-care and social-security systems, steps that would give people more confidence to spend rather than save. Last year, says Peking University's Pettis, China's consumption was about the equivalent of France's. No one is calling on France to save the world.
(Read "China's Auto Bailout Takes a Different Route.")

China faces enormous challenges — a massive shift of population from rural areas to cities, cleaning up decades of environmental degradation, continuing to provide the increase in prosperity that has underpinned political stability. Given their scale, it should surprise nobody that it is still most concerned with saving itself economically — not anyone else. Beijing is most unnerved by the prospect of labor unrest of the sort that resulted in the death on July 24 of a steel-company executive in northeast China at the hands of a mob.

But the resilience of the Chinese economy is no mirage. If Beijing can come through the global crisis without an economic meltdown of its own, its leaders' reputation and confidence will be boosted. An economic model that survives the worst downturn since the Great Depression will have undeniable appeal in the developing world, at a time when the Washington Consensus is thoroughly shot. Beijing, before the crisis, was already rising, its global reach and influence expanding. As the rest of the world falters, that is truer than ever. China is not yet the leader of the global economy. But it's getting there.
— with Reporting by Austin Ramzy / Beijing
See pictures of China's investment in Africa.
See TIME's pictures of the week.

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【上文翻译参考】

中国救世主

作者：Bill Powell 2009.8.10.星期一（原文如此）

增长
远眺与老上海隔江相望的浦东新区全景，中国呈现一派经济欣欣向荣的景象。


上海外滩闷热的周六下午，Zhang Yi置身于通用汽车公司舒适凉爽的汽车展厅内，打量着通用公司的最新款轿车，为他的下一笔投资做基本考察。他可不是来这儿避暑，而是他嫌目前他开的德国大众轿车太小，想换一辆。作为一家国有钢铁厂中层干部，Zhang Yi丝毫不为他的工作和中国经济担忧，他一面说“一切都相当顺利”一面朝旁边闪着亮光的一排崭新别克轿车扬起下巴：“我现在完全买得起它们中任意一款。”（助读：“蓬勃发展的中国汽车市场发生逆转”）

除了中国，世界其他地方当下很难找到说话如此豪气干云的消费者了。美国、日本和整个欧洲都陷入30年来最严重的全球性衰退的时候，中国却已显示出复苏的实力，而在半年前这样的复苏还曾饱受质疑。去年底出口行业毁灭性的衰退让经济增长大受打击，但在5860亿美元政府刺激计划（约占国内生产总值的13 ％，分两年实施）的扶持下，中国迅速恢复元气，第二季度经济增长为7.9%，现在看来今年更有可能达到或超过8%。几乎每天都出现证明增长势头的迹象，工厂开工开始逐步回升，中国消费者的消费继续保持稳定也是原因之一；汽车销售受到政府对购置小型轿车进行补贴的明显推动，在4月份创下有史以来最高销售记录，今年将轻松超过美国的汽车年销量；中国的零售业今年总体增长了16 ％。（助读：“中国的经济实力是否足以拯救世界”）

仅仅数字还不足以让人感受到全球经济实力的天平正向东方倾斜，还有多个场合看上去都可以体现这股时代洪流，不过没一个比得上美国财长盖特纳（Timothy Geithner）今年6月当着有“中国哈佛”之称的北京大学的天之骄子们作的演讲更令人难忘。北大学子刚才还是最恭敬最有礼貌的听众，然而当盖特纳试图向一名发问者保证说中国投资于美国国债的资产“非常安全”时，他得到了可能正好说明新经济秩序出现朕兆的回应：学生们哄笑起来。

美国，毫无疑问的全球经济领头羊，现在正迷失在经济政策的转型中，远离了实施近30年的自由发展资本主义模式，转向对经济领域实行更公开的政府控制和监管。目前尚不能断言此举是否明智，但这种做法无疑在美国成了逐渐升级的激辩素材，但在中国却全然没有这样公然的怀疑，在那里政府对经济危机的反应是如此积极迅速，而经济状况也以同样的方式予以回报。

这就是为什么对跨国公司像通用汽车而言，中国的意义不在将来而在现在。作为全球10个最大经济体之一，中国是唯一一个经济仍保持增长的国家，并有可能很快超越日本成为世界第二大经济体。今年上证指数疯涨超过80%，是到目前为止主要证券交易市场中表现最好的。依赖于产品制造业的国家，比如澳大利亚和巴西，在过去半年里收益颇丰，原因就在于中国对产品的需求推动了原材料价格上涨；受益于和中国进行的贸易，亚洲的出口驱动型经济体也在快速恢复生机。总的看来，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计从2008到2010的三年内，中国的经济增长将会惊人地占到世界经济增长的近3/4，中国现在成为正在找路走出泥潭的世界经济的焦点就毫不稀奇了，正如上海经济学家Andy Xie所指出的，“大家都想知道同一件事：中国能否拯救世界？”

颠倒乾坤（艾迪墨菲主演的喜剧电影片名，讲的是身份互换命运更迭的故事）

几年前，中国能否推动全球经济发展的疑问显得挺荒唐，毕竟中国经济依赖于制造业，而制造业反过来又依赖于美国的消费需求，而美国才是世界无可争议的经济火车头。但现在经济火车头的引擎让机车偏离了正常轨道，国际货币基金组织预计今年美国经济将萎缩2.6%，美国部分城市的房价将继续下跌，而失业率将攀升到9.5%，达到1983年以来最高；被美国大肆宣传的经济刺激计划到目前除了在股市重新弄出点儿上扬的火花外几乎没产生任何可考量的经济利益，缺乏真正的复苏迹象使华盛顿开始讨论新一轮刺激消费计划的可行性，全然顾不上膨胀的联邦预算赤字。

参看“中国承担整个世界”

参看“中国博客”

迄今为止中国的刺激计划成效可谓相当显著，跟美国的情况形成了鲜明对比。根据最近世界银行的一份研究报告，今年中国的政府支出将产生超过80%的该国总体经济增长效益，部分是因为当经济衰退袭来时中国已经在实施一个全国性基础设施建设计划，紧急支出措施只是补充到已在进行计划中，换而言之，项目早已准备就绪，所需资金也正好就此到位——大笔大笔的到位。例如，去年新建铁路的花费是410亿美元，今年则会是880亿美元。一名财富500强的高级经理人说：“在美国，地区性自我保护主义现今仍然大行其道，然而在中国情况恰恰相反，他们可以在任何时间任何地点建设他们想要的东西，因此他们总走在其他人前面。（助读：“与中国的新交易”）

中国的经济复苏和与日俱增的经济地位让人感到一些全球性组织比如美国、英国、加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和俄罗斯参与的G8峰会变得过时，未来唯一真正有意义的对话是 “ G - 2” 对话：中国和美国。7月27日总统奥巴马在两国间的高级别会谈中向与会者演讲时显然也意识到了这一点，他说华盛顿和北京的关系将“塑造21世纪”。在最近几个月里，北京已经开始充分运用其影响力了，中国要求——并几乎肯定会很快在国际货币基金组织中得到更大的投票权；今年6月，中国统一购买国际货币基金组织发行的多达500亿美元债券以促进国际货币基金组织应付全球金融危机的能力；今年早些时候，中国领导人担心美元会贬值，危及他们投资于美国财政部的七千六百三十五亿美元国债的安全而要求建立一种新的全球储备货币替代美元；最近，北京已经暗示打算逐渐建立自己的货币——人民币，通过向中国公司提供补贴并以人民币为出口产品定价的方式，在国际贸易中取代美元地位。香港汇丰银行一位经济学家Qu Hongbin甚至断言到2012年中国总贸易量的40 ％至50 ％将全部采用人民币结算（尽管没多少经济学家相信这样的事情会发生得那么快），这种愿意公开自己的立场并使其他国家政府都看到中国的行事方式的态度，德意志银行香港分部的经济学家马骏说 “和10年前有很大的不同，当时的北京政府做事更加低调不张扬。”（助读“中国封面”）

确实，鉴于其作为美国最大的外国债权人，中国正日益公开表明其报负和对美国经济政策的担忧。北京从没签署过从上世纪90年代末广为人知的有关全球经济政策的华盛顿共识，即要求自由贸易、私有化、宽松监管，审慎的财政政策和——至少做了无数次解读的共识——资本自由流动。美国财政部在信贷危机发生后马上提出了一项旨在加强其自身资本市场监管的计划，但是这不大可能阻止北京继续推动其在国际货币基金组织中对制定全球市场政策方面发挥更大作用，其核心，尽管也包容市场经济的方方面面，但中国仍在运作一种自上而下的指挥和控制型经济模式，迄今它相对干净利落地安然度过经济危机，其成功方面将会鼓舞其他发展中国家采纳这种打上北京烙印的资本主义模式。

不应操之过急

仍旧，对中国能否拯救世界这个问题最可能的回答是：时机未到。大量经济学家怀疑中国的经济发展是否真像外表那样健康，或者是否真的走在一条持续复苏的道路上。更多的人为中国扮演世界救星的讨论作澄清，认为为时过早，指望不上。

中国的整体经济活力将继续对世界产生影响，但围绕其经济发展质量的疑问并未断过。作为中央银行的中国人民银行在中央政府的大力支持下向国有银行发放大量货币，以方便它们贷款给国有公司参与基础设施建设，怀疑人士为如此巨量的现金额投入感到担忧，央行最近宣布6月份新增贷款总计2224亿美元，超过上个月贷款额的两倍，使今年上半年的新增银行贷款达到将近1.1万亿美元，超过2008年全年总和。

参看：“中国国企何以东山再起”

参看：“图辑——人民共和国边沿的人民”

对乐观者来说，6月份的数据显示中国政府对实施有效的货币政策对抗经济衰退是很有决心的，正如北京大学金融学教授Michael Pettis所言，中国政府“动用了一切它能动用的手段”来处理这个难题。毫无疑问由于巨额融资，很多中国人有了原本没有的工作机会，但，正如最近一期有影响力的华尔街通讯《格兰特利率观察家》所指出的，“大量货币和信贷注入...总是让市场先涨后跌。”通讯提出了充满疑虑的比较：中国目前的信贷繁荣和当年美国贷款潮的关系——正是后者制造了美国房市泡沫，泡沫崩溃导致金融部门损失惨重，并引发全球信贷危机和当前的经济衰退。

的确有迹象表明在某些方面中国的复苏是短暂的，中国股票市场暴涨的一个原因是不少中国公司得到大量低息贷款，在缺乏更好的投资渠道情况下不得不倾其所得投入到股本市场。康涅狄格州纽黑文市的投资研究机构Research Edge的亚洲战略问题专家Andrew Barber估计今年有30%的新增银行贷款直接或间接流到股市，为什么这些钱没有跑到新的投资领域呢？有证据显示一些经济增长的关键领域仍然缺乏造血功能，特别是重要的出口制造业，一直深受全球订单减少的打击。根据美国的惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)的一份报告，即使公司利润整体萎缩，中国的银行贷款仍会继续增长——表明中国可能会酝酿自身的金融危机，并有可能会在经济刺激计划的鸡血效应衰退时引爆。（助读：“是否中国的股市泡沫正在形成？”）

中国不可小看

这些告诫是重要，但中国的统治精英们非常了解他们正在运作的风险。Andrew Barber说：“在这场危机中他们每一步都小心翼翼”，认识到在相对疲软的经济形势下发放贷款可能会出现大规模坏账，国家一度摇摇欲坠的金融部门数年前就得到了清理整顿，——2007年，不良贷款总额只占银行资产总额的3 ％——并且对付中国上一次银行业危机所设立的金融手段依然有效，换句话说，北京认为其金融系统足够强大，足以处理宽松货币政策所带来的风险。

可以确信的一点是，即使事态不会进一步恶化且中国未来经济依然保持强劲，仍然不太可能，就其本身而言，足以将整个世界拖回到复苏的轨道。经济规模最能说明问题。美国的经济规模是十四万亿美元，而中国是4.4万亿美元；去年美国占到全球GDP总量将近21%，而中国仅占到6.4%，换言之，中国的消费水平的确在增长，但仍不足以把世界发达经济体从衰退中拽出来。中国消费者支出占中国国内生产总值不到40 ％，而在美国，经济危机爆发前，消费者支出是美国国内生产总值的70 ％。美国消费者现在保持观望——过去9个月内美国的储蓄率从零窜升到近7 ％ ，消费者紧捂他们的钱包——世界迫切需要有人前去填补这一空白。（助读：中国不会马上拯救世界经济）

中国当然会有用，但它仍是个相对贫穷的国家，每年人均收入6000美元，而美国年人均收入39000美元，欧洲33400美元，要在中国大城市成为殷实的中产阶级，收入要求约为12000美元。中国的汽车销售固然显得春风得意，但大多数中国人仍负担不起一辆大众或别克的价格，更别提宝马。尽管中国消费者感到比过去更富裕，但他们享受到的经济成果可能并不会发生太大变化，除非中央政府对医疗保健和社会保险体系实施改革，采取措施让人们更有信心投资而不是储蓄。北京大学的Pettis说，去年，中国的消费量大约相当于法国的情况，不同的是，没有人呼吁法国拯救世界。（助读：“中国采取不同措施救助汽车行业”）

中国正面临极大挑战——人口从农村大规模转移向城市，要清理几十年来恶化的环境，要继续为支撑其政治稳定而提供所必须的经济繁荣。鉴于其经济规模，应该没有人感到惊讶，它仍然最关心以最小的代价实现自我救赎——而不是拯救其他任何人。最让北京惶恐的前景是工人骚乱，是那类导致7月24日中国东北一家钢铁公司经理死于情绪失控的工人手中的骚乱。

但中国经济的反弹绝非海市蜃楼。如果北京能安然度过全球危机而自身经济并未垮台，其领导人的声望和信心将极大膨胀，一种幸存于自大萧条以来最严重经济危机的崭新经济模式将在华盛顿共识彻底倒下时让广大发展中国家无法抗拒地受到吸引。北京，在这场危机前就已崛起，在世界其他国家和地区都步履蹒跚时，其全球范围的影响力将进一步扩展，这一点比以往任何时候都更来得真实，中国目前虽不是世界经济的领袖，但未来领袖非它莫属。

— 和北京记者Austin Ramzy共同报道

参看“中国在非洲投资图集”

参看“时代本周图说”

taoyukun-daidaiUID: 2657922

我意思是。。。你不是说“一起”完成么。。。 257# thatll

thatllUID: 2538832

260# taoyukun-daidai

哦，呵呵，我还没计划呢，我觉得你那样子简单的不行，等于没弄，一定要出来论点及相应的例子

taoyukun-daidaiUID: 2657922

那你还转。。。我郁闷。。等你想好了，也该考试了。。。 261# thatll

thatllUID: 2538832

【听力---SSS---May 15, 2009】

Survey: 17 Percent Have Piddled（也有小便的意思） Pool
A survey from the chemical industry-sponsored Water Quality and Health Council finds one in six people admit to having peed in the pool. And the CDC supplies hygiene tips for swimmers.

Friends who had a swimming pool also had a little sign posted that said, “We don’t swim in your toilet. Please don’t pee in our pool.” Despite such widespread admonitions（训诫，忠告，温和的责备）, four fifths of those questioned believe that their fellow swimmers（同伴泳者） are guilty of relieving themselves（注意relieve oneself就是大小便的意思，而relieve本身具有安慰的意思，所以我们在表示安慰自己的时候千万不能说relieve myself） without bothering to get out and find a bathroom. And one in six people polled（注意我们看到了两个表示被调查者的表述，一个是of those questioned，一个是people polled） admitted that they have indeed peed in the pool.


That’s the result of a survey conducted by the Water Quality and Health Council, which is sponsored by the chemical industry, which wants to sell pool chlorine（氯）, and which partners with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to get the word out（帮助宣传） on healthy swimming habits.


Here are some tips from the CDC:


Don’t swallow pool water. Don’t worry, I won’t.


Shower with soap before swimming.


Wash your hands after using the bathroom or changing diapers before getting in the pool.


The CDC also feels compelled to remind people that if they have diarrhea（腹泻） they shouldn’t go in the pool. Talk about a few bad apples spoiling it for everyone.

thatllUID: 2538832

【听力---SSS---May 14, 2009】

Overeating Alone Explains Obesity Epidemic
Researchers presenting their findings at the meeting of the European Council on Obesity calculated that overeating alone, without including a sedentary lifestyle（久坐少动的生活方式）, is behind the obesity problem.（这个表达方式太妙了！这个肥胖问题背后的唯一推手就是overeating）

Americans have gained a lot of weight in the past few decades. Is it our sedentary lifestyle? The increase in processed foods and sweeteners（增添剂，舔料）? Supersized portions（超大量份）? Researchers from the World Health Organization in Australia say it’s very simple: we eat too much. They presented their findings May 8th at the European Council on Obesity.

Scientists measured the metabolism of almost 1,500 adults to determine how many calories their bodies burn under normal conditions. Then they calculated how many calories they’d need to maintain body weight. They figured out how much we’re eating today versus three decades ago by comparing agricultural data from then and now. They determined total food grown and imported, minus（可以作为一个介词） what was exported, thrown away or used for livestock.

With that information, they predicted how much fatter we should be based just on consumption. And we’ve actually gained a little less than the numbers say we should have. Maybe because we’ve added some exercise to the equation.（这里的add sth to the equation表示的就是在讨论的平衡范围里面加进去了一个什么东西的感觉）

The scientists say this study shows that the situation is straightforward. Exercise is great, but to get the weight down, Americans have to adopt the ELF diet. Where ELF stands for eat less food.（这里的表述传达了一种让步关系，sth is great，but to do sth, sth is important.）

thatllUID: 2538832

【听力---SSS---May 13, 2009】

Can Hybrid Cars Be Too Quiet?
Researchers presenting their findings at the meeting of the Acoustical Society of America say that hybrid vehicles are so quiet they may present a danger to pedestrians.

Hybrid cars are good for the environment. But scientists say that they might be bad for pedestrians. Because hybrids are so quiet, it can be hard for walkers to hear them until it’s too late. Listen to this. [quiet car sound]


That’s a Toyota Prius moving at five miles an hour. If you didn’t hear anything, well, that’s what worries scientists at the University of California, Riverside. They recorded the sounds made by an approaching hybrid vehicle and by a car with a standard, internal combustion engine. They then asked listeners wearing headphones to determine whether the car was coming from the left or the right.


Turns out people could hear the standard vehicle from about 36 feet away. But the hybrid was able to sneak up to（偷偷的接近） just 11 feet away before listeners knew where it was coming from. And when the scientists added some background noise, people couldn’t pinpoint the direction of the Prius until it had already passed them by, results they’ll be presenting at the May meeting of the Acoustical Society of America in Portland, Oregon. The solution, they say, is to require a “minimum sound” for all late model cars. No annoying beeps or alarms. Just something to supply that new-car sound.

sneak：
intransitive verb  
1 : to go stealthily or furtively  : SLINK  *snuck out early*
2 : to act in or as if in a furtive manner
3 : to carry the football on a quarterback sneak
transitive verb   : to put, bring, or take in a furtive or artful manner  *sneak a smoke*
sneak up on : to approach or act on stealthily

thatllUID: 2538832

【听力---SSS---May 12, 2009】

Vitamins Block Some Exercise Benefits
A study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reveals that antioxidant vitamins can interfere with exercise's anti-diabetes effect.

Exercise is good for you. Antioxidants are good for you. But put them together and it’s not as good as you’d think. Because a recent study shows that some vitamins block the beneficial effects of exercise.


A good workout（体育锻炼） not only gets your heart pumping, it makes your body better able to process glucose and decreases your risk of diabetes. And it does so, in part, by firing up your cells’ mitochondria（线粒体）. Stoking those mitochondrial flames boosts your metabolism. But it also throws off so-called free radicals, which are usually considered harmful. So adding antioxidants—which get rid of free radicals—should make your workout even healthier, right?


Well, no. Forty men took part in a four-week training program. Half the group also received daily doses of Vitamins C and E. The researchers discovered that exercise on its own improves insulin sensitivity, which keeps diabetes at bay（牵制）. But taking the vitamins erased that gain—findings that appear in the May 12th issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.


So you actually need a burst of potentially damaging radicals to reap some of the important rewards of a good sweat. Which means that even on a molecular level: no pain, no gain.

学习：

block：
a : to make unsuitable for passage or progress by obstruction b archaic : BLOCKADE c : to hinder the passage, progress, or accomplishment of by or as if by interposing an obstruction d : to shut off from view *forest canopy blocking the sun* e : to interfere usually legitimately with (as an opponent) in various games or sports f : to prevent normal functioning or action of g : to restrict the exchange of (as currency or checks)
boost：
1 : to push or shove up from below
2 : INCREASE, RAISE  *plans to boost production*  *an extra holiday to boost morale*
3 : to promote the cause or interests of  : PLUG  *a campaign to boost the new fashions*
4 : to raise the voltage of or across (an electric circuit)
erase：
1 a : to rub or scrape out (as written, painted, or engraved letters)  *erase an error*  b : to remove written or drawn marks from  *erase a blackboard*  c : to remove (recorded matter) from a magnetic medium;  also   : to remove recorded matter from  *erase a videotape*  d : to delete from a computer storage device  *erase a file*
2 a : to remove from existence or memory as if by erasing  b : to nullify the effect or force of

thatllUID: 2538832

【听力---SSS---May 11, 2009】

Math: The Eyes Have It
A study in the journal Science finds that the same brain circuitry that moves the eyes right does mental addition. And the circuit for moving eyes left does mental subtraction.

I still tend to move my fingers, almost subconsciously, when doing arithmetic. Well, that might not be so strange, according to research published in the May 8th issue of the journal Science. The report says that math and movement through space use some of the same brain circuitry.

Researchers in France scanned the neural activity in the brains of people who were moving their eyes right or left. Then study participants were asked to do arithmetic in their heads. And the brain scan data correctly showed whether the person was adding or subtracting. Because adding used the same brain circuits as when eyes moved right. And subtraction matched up with the neurons firing when eyes moved left.

Researchers say this finding shows that the development of math is too recent and advanced to have a brain region devoted solely to it. So we reuse systems that we already have. The study authors note that “throughout the history of mathematics, concepts of number and space have been tightly intertwined.” Now we know that the connection even occurs in our brains. So I don’t feel too bad about still counting on my fingers.

thatllUID: 2538832

【作文---立场的选择】
留学考试准备：立场的选择
[size=1em]by 李笑来
on 2009/08/08
[size=1em]in 留学考试准备

[size=1.4em]托福考试中，经常有这样的问法：

“Do you agree or disagree…?”

很多考生以为遇到这样的题目应该要么选择“agree”要么选择“disagree”，否则就是“立场不清晰”、“立场不明确”。可是，这样的考生可能没有想到“我们的立场很明确，就是既不同意也不反对！”这样一句话是没有任何逻辑缺陷的。
所以，考生必须明确一个事实，任何一个话题，在“同意”和“反对”之间还有很多其它可供选择的立场：

只不过，其中的“完全没概念！”和“关我什么事？”是在考场上没办法选择的立场。
GMAT作文考试中，问得就更为清楚一点：

To what extent do you agree or disagree…?

而在GRE考试中，干脆把可能引起歧义的“agree”和“disagree”这两个字眼去掉，换成了这样的问法：

Present your perspective on the issue below, using relevant reasons and/or examples to support your views.

事实上，托福考试的设计者为了做到“立场的选择不影响最终的评判”而尽量找那些“无关痛痒”的、“不涉及文化差异”的话题，并且声明，无论学生选择怎样的立场，只要能够做到评分标准中的那些要求，就可以获得相应的成绩。
不过，还是有必要研究一下应该如何选择立场的。道理很简单：总是有一些立场比另外一些立场更有道理。而更有道理的立场显然会“得天独厚”地写起来更为容易一些，而万一选错了立场，那就会“自然而然”地写起来更为困难一些。

立场的选择——最好不要同意的

[size=1.4em]请仔细注意每一个字，有些题目“最好不要同意”。之所以说“最好”，是因为这些题目选择“不要同意”可能更容易写一些。而“不要同意”不是“不同意”——因为很多人会不自觉地把“不同意”和“反对”对等起来。我的意思是说，在“同意”和“反对”之间还有很多立场，比如“大部分同意”、“大部分反对”、“视情况而定”……等等；而在这众多的立场之中，针对这些题目不要选择“同意”，除了“同意”之外的所有立场都可供选择，都比选择“同意”更容易写。
什么样的题目“最好不要同意”呢？那些有绝对词的题目。比如：

• Parents are the best teachers.
• Learning about past has no value for those of us who live in the present.
• The most important aspect of a job is the money a person earns.

道理特别简单，“绝对的立场很难捍卫”，因为这样的立场哪怕只有一个反例就不能够完全成立。所以，即便是那些乍看上去很有道理，甚至人们普遍接受的立场都应该小心应对，比如：

• Never, never give up.
• One should never judge a person by external appearances.
• Progress is always good.

有些时候，绝对词并不是很容易被识别出来。比如，“Parents are the best teachers.”这句话里其实有两个绝对词，其中一个是“the best”，而另外一个是什么呢？
其实，“Parents are the best teachers.”这句话相当于：

All parents are the best teachers.

英语中有两个绝对词不存在等同于存在“all”和“every”，再看看以下这个句子：

A student should always work hard.

其实这句话等同于“Every student should always work hard.”
这种题目直接选择“反对”可能是最好写的，因为刚刚已经说过，这种绝对的立场哪怕只有一个反例就不能够完全成立。随便找来一个反例就可以证明题目立场站不住脚。
除此之外，还可以运用第三种有力模式：“1-转折-2-递进-3”应对这类题目。比如“One should never judge a person by external appearances.”这道题，可以如此应对：

• It’s true that we sometimes get wrong when we judge a person merely by external appearances.（这样的例子生活中比比皆是……）
• However, one’s external appearances do tell us a lot about a person.（比如，穿着西装打着领带开跑车的十有八九是暴发户……）
• Moreover, in some specific circumstances, we have to and ought to judge a person by external appearances.（比如洗发精厂商找人代言的时候，一定不能找葛优……）

再比如“The most important aspect of a job is the money a person earns.”这道题，可以如此应对：

• The amount of money a person earns is quite an important aspect of a job.
• However, it is absolutely not the most important aspect for any individual.
• In fact, for many individuals who enjoy their work and job, a sense of fullfilment might well be the most important.

又比如“Progress is always good.”这道题，可以如此应对：

• It’s true that progress is usually good.
• However, it is hardly convincing to assert that progress is always good.
• In fact, progress is to some extent neither good nor bad, and what is good or bad might be essentially determined by human behaviors.

第三种有力模式在这里的应用大抵上是这样的机理：先顺着它说，然后再逆转回来，而后再更进一步。这样写出来的文章比较好看，有一句话说：

文章无曲折，正如女人无曲线。

这不是我说的，是林语堂先生说的。

立场的选择——最好同意的

[size=1.4em]这一次，在众多的立场中，只留下了一个选择：“同意”。因为这些题目之中不仅没有绝对词，还有相关的限定。比如这道题：

People should sometimes do things that they do not enjoy doing.

这个“sometimes“很麻烦，十次里有一次当然不算，可是三次、四次、五次、六次、七次、八次等等都算是“sometimes”。连“部分同意”或者“部分反对”都很难做到。某种意义上，这就是语义学里常说的“因含混而难以辩驳”。
如果反对的话，那么就等同于把自己推向绝对，要么是：

People should always do things that they do not enjoy doing.

要么就是：

People should never do things that they do not enjoy doing.

如果我们作为作者，竟然选择了很难捍卫的“绝对的立场”，那么读者就“最好不要同意”了。
再比如这道题也一样：

Most experiences in our lives that seemed difficult at the time become valuable lessons for the future.

十次里有五次或者五次一下当然不算，可是六次、七次、八次、九次等等都算是“most”，于是，再次我们只好选择“同意”。
一旦选择“同意”，那接下来的任务倒也简单，只不过是写个简单说明文而已。

立场的选择——只能反对的

[size=1.4em]这一次，在众多的立场中，只留下一个选择：“反对”。因为这些题目背后有因果逻辑错误，哪怕“部分同意”（或者“部分反对”）都不应该选。比如这道题：
[size=1.4em]
[size=1.4em]Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Television has destroyed communication among friends and family. Use specific reasons and examples to support your opinion.

很多读者可能会奇怪，“我没有看到哪里有‘because’啊，哪儿来的因果关系错误呢？”
当我们在回答“agree or disagree”之前，其实我们还有一个步骤不应该错过，那就是“分析”。分析一下，有道理就同意，没道理就反对，有多少道理就同意多少。可是如何分析呢？分析他人的看法，一个既简单又有效的切入点是尝试着问自己：

“How come they have such an opinion?”

让我们想想，“这些人的这种想法究竟是哪儿来的呢？”大抵上应该是这样，他们观察到的第一个现象是“现在的人们看电视的时间越来越长……”——这是个确实存在的真实现象；于此同时，他们观察到第二个现象“现在人们之间相互沟通的时间越来越少……”——这也是个确实存在的真实现象。

而这两个现象又好像明显有着一定的联系，想想啊，每天只有24个小时，花在这儿的时间越多，花在那儿的时间就越少……于是，这些人就用“因果”逻辑关系把这两个现象联系了起来：

People spend much less time on communicating with friends and family because they spend too much time on watching television!

再翻译一下，就是题目中所说的：

Television has destroyed communication among friends and family.

分析A与B之间的因果关系是否成立、是否可接受，无非可以从以下三个层面入手：

• A不见得是B的理由（A is not necessarily the reason of B）
• A不见得是B唯一的理由（A is not necessarily the only reason of B）
• A不见得是B最重要的理由（A is not necessarily the most significant reason of B）

以当前题目为例进行分析：

• 的确，有些人看电视看得太多，乃至于不与他人沟通，但是，有另外一些人就算不看电视也不与他人沟通，比如说他们可能酗酒、吸毒……
• 就算电视是沟通被破坏的理由，但也不见得是唯一的理由。比如某个人白天被炒了鱿鱼，回家生闷气却又不愿告诉家人，于是一声不吭坐在那里看电视，这时候，“不沟通”的表面原因是“看电视”，而深层次原因是“失业的烦恼”……
• 既然电视不见得是沟通受到破坏的唯一的理由，那它还不一定是最重要的理由呢。事实上，很多的时候，人们之间相互不沟通的最根本原因可能在于人们普遍缺乏基本的沟通技巧……

所以说，“电视破坏了人们之间的沟通”这种观点是不可接受的。这样的作文写起来并不难（本质上来看还是在用第三种有力模式：“1-转折-2-递进-3”）：

• It’s true that A … （A现象确实存在……）
• It is also true that B …（B现象也确实存在……）
• However, it is hardly true that A → B … （然而说A导致了B就没道理了……）
• In fact, X is possibly the most important factor that results in B … （也许X才是B真正的根源……）

托福考试中，类似的题目数量并不多，例如下面这几道题：

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Telephones and email have made communication between people less personal. Use specific reasons and examples to support your opinion.
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? People behave differently when they wear different clothes. Do you agree that different clothes influence the way people behave? Use specific examples to support your answer.
Decisions can be made quickly, or they can be made after careful thought. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? The decisions that people make quickly are always wrong. Use reasons and specific examples to support your opinion.

上面的最后一道中的有一句话：

“Decisions can be made quickly, or they can be made after careful thought.”

这是最典型的那种“语法上完美无缺”但“逻辑上混乱异常”的句子。这个句子的作者显然想为读者提供两个“截然相反”的选项，然而却忘了“made quickly”和“made after careful thought”其实并不是完全对立的。比如，我们可以“make a decision after quick yet careful thought”。由此可见“仅仅词汇、语法本身无法解决最重要的写作难题”。
这种从三个层面分析因果逻辑合理程度的方法，在GRE和GMAT的作文题目中要反复用到，也是日常生活中最基本的逻辑分析工具之一。

立场的选择——不能同意也不能反对的
[size=1.4em]还有些题目既不能“同意”，也不能“反对”。因为无论是选择“同意”还是选择“反对”，得到的都是“偏颇”的立场。比如下面这道题：

It is better for children to grow up in the countryside than in a big city. Do you agree or disagree? Use specific reasons and examples to develop your essay.

如果选择同意，那么就是“It is better for children to grow up in the countryside than in a big city”，可难道我们不知道在小孩子大城市成长也有很多不可比拟的好处么？如果选择反对，那么就是““It is better for children to grow up in a big city than in the countryside”，可难道我们就不知道在小孩子乡村成长也有很多不可比拟的好处么？
这种逻辑陷阱叫做“false alternative”（也被称为“false dilemma”或者“false dichotomy”。）。这种陷阱本质上与大人欺负小孩问的“你爸好还是你妈好？”一样。事实上，除了“有时候确实爸爸比妈妈好”和“有时候确实妈妈比爸爸好”之外，还有很多其它的选择：

• 有时候爸爸妈妈都很好
• 有时候爸爸妈妈都不好
• 有时候看起来是爸爸好但实际上是妈妈好
• 有时候看起来是妈妈好但实际上是爸爸好
• 有时候是过了很久才知道原来爸爸更好
• 有时候是过了很久才知道原来妈妈更好
• ……

在众多选择之中，只拿出其中的两个，貌似除此之外不再有任何其他选择，让被提问者必须“二选其一”，这就是“false alternative”的本质。面对这种陷阱而不自知，就很不幸。因为，接下来请问，“如何才能做到合理地支持一个明显偏颇的立场呢？”这不是“难”，而是干脆“做不到”。
所以，遇到这种题目即不能“同意”，也不能“反对”。可以用“视情况而定”的策略。

究竟在哪儿长大更好，要看那是多大的孩子：

• 如果小孩三四岁的话……（在哪儿长大不一样呢？反正他也不出门，就算出门也不知到那是哪儿……）
• 如果小孩读小学的话……（还是在乡下罢，城里孩子太可怜，上学背的书包比他们屁股大多了……）
• 如果小孩正在读中学……（最好还是在城里罢，中国城乡差异这么大，教育环境也是如此……）

或者

究竟在哪儿长大更好，其实各个国家的情况非常不同：

• 要是中国的孩子的话……（那最好还是在城里罢，因为中国城乡差异太大……）
• 要是加拿大的孩子的话……（那个国家其实没有“城里”，都是“乡下”……）
• 要是新加坡的孩子的话……（那个国家没有“乡下”，就那么一个城市……）

这种的“视情况而定”的策略，使得每一个段落内部都“言之有物、言之有理”，而直接的效果就是“写起来相对更容易”。
回顾一下，立场的选择一共有四种方案：

• 最好不要同意的
• 最好同意的
• 只能反对的
• 不能同意也不能反对的

有了这样的认识之后，考生就很难再遇到那种“呀，让我用中文写都不知道该怎么写”的题目了，这就是所谓的“知者不难”了。

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【听力】
不听VOA听什么？——推荐CNN

[size=1em]by 李笑来---------on 2009/07/11--------------[size=1em]in 人人都能用英语

[size=1.4em]过去我们几乎是不得不用ＶＯＡ以及它的ＳＥ，因为那时候我们基本上除了它之外就没有什么其它资源——那时我们只有收音机，没有互联网。现在不同，我们不仅可以用收音机（用的人已经很少了吧？——事实上很多人的收音机基本上是ＶＯＡ短波专用），还有卫星电视、互联网、以及各种各样的音像制品（正版盗版全都算上）。不用ＶＯＡ也行的时代早就到了。前一节我们说过建议学生回避一切类似ＶＯＡ ＳＥ之类的简化英语学习材料，而另外一个原因在于它的口音单调——只有一个标准简化美式英语。
其实我们需要训练自己识别不同口音才能够正常使用一种语言。想象一下，假如你就是鲁宾逊•克鲁斯，流落在荒岛——只不过当初跟你在一起的不是那个星期五，而是你三岁的儿子；而你们被迫在那个荒岛生活了二十八年。你儿子小克鲁斯从小到大二十八年来只听过你一个人讲英语。许多年后终于有一天你们被人救了出来，回到英格兰，你猜已经三十一岁的小克鲁斯是否能够听懂其他人说的英语呢？
答案是不仅小克鲁斯听不懂别人说的英语，其他人甚至也可能认为小克鲁斯说的不是英语，而是另外一种什么荒岛土著语。
为什么会这样呢？其实，即便讲同一种语言的人群中，每个人的口音都或多或少各不相同。同样一个字，有的人声音大、有的人声音小，有的人音调高，有的人音调低，有的人发音更长一点，有的人发音更短一点，有的人口腔气流振动靠前，有的人口腔气流振动靠后，有人更夸张一点，有人更自然一点——反正实际上的差别会非常大。事实上，即便各自认为口音相同的一群人之间（东北人说东北话，北京人说北京话、山东人说山东话、天津人说天津话、上海人说上海话、广东人说广东话……的时候）也各不相同。
刚刚出生的时候，我们的耳朵对声音分辨是最为敏感的。然而，随着时间的推移，我们开始对一些声音更为敏感（比如母语常用的各种声音），而对另外一些声音渐渐失去分辨能力（比如韩国人几乎无需分辨/f/、/v/这些音——因为他们的语言里就没有），因为我们身上的每一种能力都极其容易“用进废退”。然而，对于生活中经常遇到的某一个音的各种“变体”，即，用各种口音发出来的某一个音，却异常敏感。这也是用进废退发展出来的能力，因为我们毕竟每天听很多人说话。也就是说，任何一个母语里所使用的音，我们可能只用一种方式去说（就是按照自己的方式），但是却要有能力识别用各种方式说出来的那个音——当然，我们每个人不仅做到了，而且很早就做到了。
所以说，与很多英语老师宣称的恰恰相反，很多人所谓的听力差，并不是因为（或起码并不仅仅是因为）自己的发音差造成的；而是因为长期只听所谓的标准音造成的。他们就好像是刚刚那个假想故事里的小鲁宾逊，一辈子只听过他老爹讲的“标准英语”，于是渐渐失去了对每个音必然存在的多少有些细微差异的变体的分辨能力。这就是为什么我反对学生长期听（甚至长期只听）ＶＯＡ的重要原因——这种做法不仅不会让学生进步，反倒会让学生迅速变成小鲁宾逊那样的怪物。
这也就解释了为什么有些人觉得自己听英文歌也能听懂，看原版电影也能听懂，ＴＯＥＦＬ考试听力成绩也不错，可是一到了美国当时就傻掉，觉得人家说的话一句都听不懂。这也从另外一个侧面解释了黄西的英语口音很重，老外却都听得懂，我们是中国人，却听不懂黄西中式发音的英语。
我建议学生平时可以多听ＣＮＮ就是这个原因。与很多人想象的恰恰相反，我推荐学生听ＣＮＮ就是因为ＣＮＮ不那么标准——在ＣＮＮ的广播节目中可以听到几乎各种口音的英语（当然都是可接受的口音）。某种意义上，作为在中国学习英语的人（所谓的缺乏英语环境），能够找到的最好材料可能就是ＣＮＮ　Ａｕｄｉｏ（尤其是它的国际新闻报道）了。当然，现在的网速越来越快，所以，更多人可以直接看ＣＮＮ　Ｖｉｄｅｏ了。
从这个意义上来说，学英语的时候不分英音美音可能更好。其实英国人的口音变体也很多。甚至即便是在伦敦一个城市，就有很多不同的口音。比如，伦敦南部的人很多都把/ai/读成/ei/，而把/ei/读成/ai/。而地域要比英国大出不知道多少倍的美国，口音更为繁杂。或者更准确地说，在选择学习材料的时候，不要“只听英音”的，或者“只听美音”的。那样反倒不好，因为那样做就等于限制了自己声音变体识别能力的发展。听的时候，尽量听各种口音的；而说的时候（包括朗读训练的时候）尽量让自己说某一种特定口音（或“美音”，或“英音”，或“国际英语发音”）就可以了。

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【写作----specific】
TEFOL作文具体细节最重要
[size=1em]by 李笑来--------on 2009/08/06---------[size=1em]in 留学考试准备

[size=1.4em]大多数学生作文成绩低的根本原因在于他们讲述任何事情，都只能泛泛地讲述，不能做到翔实具体，细节丰富。比如，有这样一道题：

In general, people are living longer now. Discuss the causes of this phenomenon.

假设我们审题之后，决定写这样三个段落：

• 食物条件的改善
• 医疗技术的进步
• 经济、社会环境的稳定

以其中第二个理由为例，这个理由要被写成三个段落中的第二个段落，那么这个段落大约应该是100词左右的篇幅（托福独立作文部分字数要求是300~350词）。
主题句可以很简单，“现代医疗技术步使人们活得越来越久。”：

“Modern medical technologies have made people live longer.”

有的人可能会认为这个句子太短，于是，就写成“Modern medical technologies have made more and more people live longer and longer.”——这是很恶心的。很多人误以为句子写得越长越好，词汇用得越难越好（有相当数量的老师也确实这么认为），事实上并非如此。当然，如果有些人一定要认为这个由8个词构成的主题句太简陋，那也不是不可以换成这样一个由20个词构成的句子：

“The rapid development of modern medical technologies is one of most important factors that contribute to current longer life expectancy. ”

无论怎样，这样的句子谁都应该写得出来，因为没有一个不会写的词——基本上都是初中词汇就可以解决的。那接下来要写什么呢？比如，接着可以给出理由，“因为有些病过去不能治但现在能治了”：

“Many diseases for which there had been no previous effective treatment might be responsive to modern medical technologies. ”

再一次，这是个基本上谁都可以写得出来的句子，因为又是一个基本上只使用初中词汇的句子。四舍五入一下，把这个18个词构成的句子算作20个词。那么这个段落已经有了40个词，还差60个词的篇幅，那写些什么呢？
接下来，可能就应该提供一些具体的例子、细节了，“那哪些病过去不能治现在能治了呢？”比如，“猩红热”——会写么？再比如“百日咳”——会写么？又比如“肺结核”——会写么？问题就出在这里了：不是想不到，而是想到了却根本不会写。
之前看到的那篇习作中，学生在举例说明“濒临灭绝动物很重要”的时候，其实也很可能并非没想到“东北虎”、“扬子鳄”、“丹顶鹤”之类的准确而又恰当的例子，更可能的是“都想到了却都不会写”，所以只好写了个自己会写的——“spiders”！
讲到这里，读者就应该明白作文考试高分的关键了。其实只需要提前做好功课就好：给题库中的每道题1) 不仅要列大纲，还要2) 落实具体细节，然后3) 查词典。只罗列大纲是没用的，因为那只不过是完成了具体任务中的20%不到而已，并且还是最容易的那20%。真正有效的、真正困难一些的是剩下的80%，到了考场上，可不能查词典，不能参考语法书，不能用Google，所以，不提前做好功课，一切都是白费。做功课的时候，把想到的具体细节落实到纸面上也很重要，因为如果不这么做的话，一会儿就会忘掉刚刚想到的很多细节，进而甚至连查词典查什么都不知道。
而很多考生在准备考试的时候甚至没有专门查过词典，这很令人费解。一方面自己都确信自己的词汇量不够的情况下，另外一方面又坚决不肯查词典，这样自相矛盾的心理也并非没有解释：他们觉得自己正在背的词汇书也许应该能够解决问题，并且他们从来都不觉得查词典有多么重要。
查过一次词典就知道不查词典有多么吃亏了。“东北虎”，是“North Chinese Tiger”，甚至直接写“Chinese Tiger”就行；“扬子鳄”，是“Chinese Alligator”；“丹顶鹤”，是字对字的翻译“Red Crown Crane”。这种词，只要去查，查到之后看过一遍就不会忘。费劲么？一点都不。三五秒钟之后，作文就有实力获得满分了（请自行对照作文评分标准），不用什么高级词汇、不用什么闪光句型，非常朴素地写：

We should protect those endangered animals, because they are very important, for example, Chinese Tiger, Chinese Alligator, Red Crown Crane, and so on.

有些读者反应快，问，那刚刚那篇关于“人们为什么越来越长寿”的作文，现在已经有了40个词的篇幅，然后你又提供了几个诸如猩红热（Scarlet fever）、百日咳（Whooping cough）、肺结核（Tuberculosis）之类的例子，那才50个词不到的篇幅啊，不还是不够100个词么？
其实再往下就很简单了。我可以说：

你看，我小的时候就得过猩红热，可是很快就治愈了。所以，不仅没有死掉，现在还好好的，坐在考场里参加你们设计得托福考试。而我爸爸的一个兄弟，很小的时候得了同样的病，治不好就夭折了。所以，现在的婴儿死亡率要比过去低很多，也因此平均寿命比过去更长了……

很容易就写够100词的！
写作文就是这样，写出一个主题句（Topic Sentence），然后就要越来越具体地解释，解释到一些具体的细节，就可以再就着那写具体的细节展开后继的论述。大致如下图所示：

而很多学生写到汇交之处就没有东西可写了，于是就出现了“断层”（地理学专业词汇是“fault”）；而后继的内容就根本不可能存在了。
这样清楚地了解到自己写作文的困境根源所在，就很容易明白“不仅要列大纲，还要落实具体细节，然后查词典”这个朴实的建议有多么合理多么重要了。
另附一篇针对“人们为什么越来越长寿”这道题的样文（即便这篇文章里可能有一些这样那样的错误，但它满足了满分评分标准的每一个条目，所以，可以获得满分）：
The improvement of food condition seems to be a very important factor. Compared to the past, much more assorted foods are available and at the same time they are more nutritious. Coarse food grain such as maize or sorghum had already been replaced by wheat flour and rice. Even the quality of drinking water has been improved. Water from river, water from well, and even tap water is no longer directly taken in; what is now drunk is more likely to be mineral water, purified water, or distilled water. Besides, better nourishments are now cheaply and readily available: a diverse array of vitamins can be supplemented by a single tiny pill.
Equally important is the development of modern medical technology. Finer medicine and more effective treatments are continually developed and perfected, which means that many diseases for which there had been no previous effective treatment can now be easily cured. In the past, many pediatric diseases such as scarlet fever or whooping cough could cause an extremely high infant mortality. But now, such diseases are no longer considered as fatal any more. It’s very easy to make a long list containing such diseases which can now be easily cured but could not in the past: arthritis, tuberculosis, syphilis; cardiac trouble… In fact, the list is nearly endless.
Matching the improvement of food condition and the development of modern medical technology is another essential factor, the stability of social and economic environment. An obvious example is this: any war may well influence life expectancy of rival countries. On the contrary, in a relatively stable and secure environment, one is much more likely to be healthy. An insecure society can cause more stress, and under such stress, one is quite unlikely to be healthy. Studies have proved that one’s immune system would not function well when the stress is intolerable. Intolerable stress is in fact not rare at all, say, when the society undergoes an economic crisis.
[325 Words]
别有任何疑问。对，这篇文章就没有所谓常规的“开头”和“结尾”，只有三个理由构成的三个段落。但这种考试从来没有要求过考生一定要写“五段式作文”。请认真阅读《新托福考试官方指南》第259页的倒数三个段落：

Do not “memorize” long introductory and concluding paragraphs
just to add words to your essay. Raters will not look favorably on wordy introductory and concluding paragraphs such as the following:

“The importance of the issue raised by the posed statement, namely creating a new holiday for people, cannot e underestimated as it concerns the very fabric of society. As it stands, the issue of creating a new holiday raises profound implications for the future. However, although the subject matter in general cannot be dismissed lightheartedly, the perspective of the issue as presented by the statement raises certain qualms regarding practical application.”
“In conclusion, although I have to accept that it is imperative that something be done about creating a new holiday for people and find the underlying thrust of the implied proposal utterly convincing, I cannot help but feel wary of taking such irrevocable steps and personally feel that a more measured approach would be more rewarding.”

我总是忍不住慨叹，白纸黑字清清楚楚写在那里的东西，怎么就竟然好像没人看懂似的呢？我遇到过无数留学考试作文老师花费一整节课讲解“如何写个好的开头”，再花另外一节课讲解“如何写个好的结尾”（注意，他们所谓的“好”并不是简洁朴素准确有效，而是“如何才能写得非常炫，炫到让老外看不懂的地步……”）；而学生也是“斥巨资”购买的这本《新托福考试官方指南》，却竟然放在那里从来不看，真不知道都是怎么想的？我一直以为他们阅读能力太差，后来才明白他们根本不阅读；再后来又弄明白原来他们之所以不阅读就是因为（他们可能也知道自己）阅读能力太差，所以（才觉得）读了也没用。