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发表于 2009-7-10 18:19:40
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本帖最后由 eric_scut 于 2009-7-16 16:15 编辑
TOPIC: ARGUMENT167 - A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
请看3楼的修改稿
3# eric_scut
以下是原作
WORDS: 383
TIME: 不限
DATE: 2009-7-10 15:23:52
In this argument, the author cites a study about lavender flowers and then concludes that the scent in lavender flowers can effectively cure insomnia. The reasoning seems sound at first glance. However, further examination reveals several fallacies in the argumentation.
First of all, the wakened feeling of the volunteers in the third week is hidden in the study. Because sleeping soundly or not is hard to be measured objectively, the feeling of the volunteers when they waked up plays a more important role in the consideration. Without this information, we can not synthetically contrast the difference between the third week and the other two week, let alone conclusion that in the third week the insomnia of the subjects has been cured.
Another problem of the argument lies in that the change of the sleeping quality of the volunteers may be attributable to some other possibilities, rather than the scent of the lavender flowers. For example, the accommodation of the new environment may be an important factor. Maybe the volunteers were not comfortable to the surroundings in the controlled room at the beginning. Then after two weeks of adjustment, they were able to sleep as they usually did. Or perhaps the sleeping longer and more soundly in the third week was due to their tiredness after two weeks of bad quality of sleep. Even that the medication in the first week still took effect in the next two weeks is possible. Either of these scenarios, if true, would explain the change of the sleeping quality.
Finally, three weeks is too short a duration to claim that the insomnia has been cured. As stated in the above paragraph, there are several possibilities to the change of the soundness of the sleep. The situation of the volunteers in the third week may be just a temporary status. After all, the author do not tells us anything about the patient after the third week. Only if they were not suffering from insomnia any more after the study can we conclude that the scent of the lavender flowers indeed cure their insomnia.
In conclusion, in order to make the argument more convincing, the author should present more detailed information showing that the volunteers were really cured. Besides, he should carry out a more reasonable experiment with a control and ruling out other possibilities of the stimulus.
提纲
It is unconvincing to draw the conclusion from the study above.
1. The study ignores the wakened feeling of the volunteers in the third week.
2. The change of the sleeping quality of the volunteers may due to other factors rather than the lavender scent, for example, the acclimation to the new environment. Or The result of the third week is due to the effect of the medical treatment of the first week. Or too tired after less sleeping in the second week.
3. 3 week is not sufficient to draw the conclusion. Not mention the sleeping quality after the third week. Are they really cured? |
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