Argument38 求狠拍~~ !!有拍必应!!(没几天了)

alex8937UID: 2643749

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 523
TIME: 00:32:18 (又超了。。。)
DATE: 2009/8/8 11:30:59

alex8937UID: 2643749

The argument in the newsletter starts by stating the discovery that the daily use of Ichthaid can probably reduce absenteeism in schools and workplaces. By giving an account of a study report in nearby East Meria, the recommendation to the local West Meria that a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil promises to prevent colds and lower absenteeism seems logically persuasive and convincingly warranted.

However, careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals that it accomplishes little toward the memo's assertion. To begin with, the first assumption is when getting a cold, the patient is certain to visit a doctor for treatment. Unfortunately, this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons. There is likelihood that, instead of going to hospital, the patient would like to take some medicine by themselves. Aggravating to it, the second assumption is when buying fish, the customer is bound to cook them for meals. By the same token, there is the possibility that the customer would like view fish as appreciable pets, rather than eating them.

Even if one accepts the assumption, the argument remains questionable. It is too willy-nilly for the author to estimate that a direct correlation between high fish consumption and low frequency of visiting the doctor proves that the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is strong evidence of casual relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. It is most likely that the healthy eating habits as well as the frequent outdoor activities actually contribute to build the East Merians' strong bodies. If so, the author cannot justifiably assure me that a directly correlation between fish and colds necessarily exists.

Finally, the suggestion also goes not differentiate between distinction of areas. The memo's author fails to furnish any proof to his speculation that the statistics in nearby East Meria can equally apply to the residents in West Meria. Perhaps, East Merians have certain other habits or certain inherited traits needed for a person to prevent his or her cold risk by eating fish, which are far less common among non-East Merian. Furthermore, the author is liable to overlook the potential side effect of the application of Ichthaid, which might invite several more challenging problems. The odds are that, not only the nutritional supplement kill the bacteria easily causing colds, but it also kill the friendly bacteria and would bring about a host of irreparable damage and disorder to human's body. For that matter, without taking such alternative possibility into account, the hasty application appears not to be sensible but arbitrary.

As discussed above, unless the arguer can additionally come up with substantial and concrete evidence, the result of the deduction that the daily use of Ichthaid could become a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism is groundless and open to doubt, which relies on a series of dubious assumption. So it is worth cautious consideration to make such counsel. Not only should cogent and valid information be provided to further bolster the study report, but it also requires a thorough confidence that the usage of Ichthaid, as part of the treatment, does take undeniable effect and deserve extensive use credibly.

青柠小可UID: 2662026

The argument in the newsletter starts by stating the discovery that the daily use of Ichthaid can probably reduce absenteeism in schools and workplaces. By giving an account of a study report in nearby East Meria, the recommendation to the local West Meria that a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil promises to prevent colds and lower absenteeism seems logically persuasive and convincingly warranted.

However, careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals that it accomplishes little toward the memo's assertion. To begin with, the first assumption is when getting a cold, the patient is certain to visit a doctor for treatment. Unfortunately, this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons(后面没有提到很多条reasons). There is likelihood that, instead of going to hospital, the patient would like to take some medicine by themselves. Aggravating to it, the second assumption is when buying fish, the customer is bound to cook them for meals. By the same token, there is the possibility that the customer would like view fish as appreciable pets, rather than eating them.（应说明是哪里的customer）

Even if one accepts the assumption, the argument remains questionable. It is too willy-nilly for the author to estimate that a direct correlation between high fish consumption and low frequency of visiting the doctor proves that the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is strong evidence of casual relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. It is most likely that the healthy eating habits as well as the frequent outdoor activities actually contribute to build the East Merians' strong bodies. If so, the author cannot justifiably assure me that a directly correlation between fish and colds necessarily exists.（这段感觉很好很流畅）

Finally, the suggestion also goes not differentiate between distinction of areas. The memo's author fails to furnish any proof to his speculation that the statistics in nearby East Meria can equally apply to the residents in West Meria. Perhaps, East Merians have certain other habits or certain inherited traits needed for a person to prevent his or her cold risk by eating fish, which are far less common among non-East Merian. Furthermore, the author is liable to overlook the potential side effect of the application of Ichthaid, which might invite several more challenging problems. The odds are that, not only the nutritional supplement kill the bacteria easily causing colds, but it also kill the friendly bacteria and would bring about a host of irreparable damage and disorder to human's body. For that matter, without taking such alternative possibility into account, the hasty application appears not to be sensible but arbitrary.

As discussed above, unless the arguer can additionally come up with substantial and concrete evidence, the result of the deduction that the daily use of Ichthaid could become a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism is groundless and open to doubt, which relies on a series of dubious assumption. So it is worth cautious consideration to make such counsel. Not only should cogent and valid information be provided to further bolster the study report, but it also requires a thorough confidence that the usage of Ichthaid, as part of the treatment, does take undeniable effect and deserve extensive use credibly.
楼主的这篇文章和上一篇我看过的45感觉有些像，不过写的好像有些急了点，前两个抨击没有好好论证，感觉没有具体展开。不过在时间问题上我已经很羡慕LZ了！加油！~
我认为还有一点就是旷课和旷工的具体原因是什么，是不是由感冒引起的，是不是真的感冒了，也许大家在说谎。
下面是我新作的链接~时间充裕的话帮忙看看呗~~(*^__^*)
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... age=1#pid1773056433