argument47 FlY AW 作文组

kckUID: 2214868

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 398          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2006-6-14
提纲:
1.没记录不一定没发生，也许没找到，也许发生在没人居住的地方
2.不一定发生火山爆发,也许是其他造成大响,例如地震,或者是没有造成闪光的撞击
3.考虑其他原因.

  The argument first points out that both a large meteorite collision and a huge volcanic eruption could cause a sudden low temperature. While no extant record about  such kind of collision have been found and some historical records mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption,  the argument concludes that the sudden low temperatures in mid-sixth century are probably caused by a volcanic eruption. However, after careful examination, the argument flawed in several aspects, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
  First of all, the mere fact that no record mentions a sudden flash ,which may be caused by the meteorite collision , does not adequately prove that no such collision happened. It is entirely possible that relevant records have been destroyed or have not ye been discovered. Moreover, the collision may happened somewhere that no people inhabited in there. Thus it is quite common that no record could be discovered. Without considering and ruling these possible explanations for why no relevant record has been found, the author cannot convince me that meteorite collision cannot be responsible for the sudden decrease in temperature.
Secondly, another problem with the argument is that it unsubstantiatly assumes that a volcanic eruption happened by pointing out that some Asian historical records of mid-sixth century report a loud boom that may be caused by a volcanic eruption. However, without more information about the loud boom, it is equally possible that other incidents caused it. For example, an earthquake may also created a loud boom. Or it is entirely possible that this loud boom was caused by a meteorite collision which failed to create a bright flash of light. Without such more materials, the conclusion is unconvincing,
Thirdly, the argument also fails to consider other alternative explanations for such an sudden temperature decrease. It is entirely possible that other huge changes or incidents may lead to such a result. Without considering such explanations, the author is hastily to draw any confident conclusion.
  In sum, the argument is unconvincing as discussed above. To strengthen it, the author should provide more materials to substantiate no other phenomenon could cause the cooler temperature exept the two mentioned. The author should also give out strong evidence to show that no meteorite collision was happened that a volcanic eruption did appear at that time and should be responsible for the sudden decrease of temperature.

exp03UID: 2158827

这篇argu可反驳的地方很多，以至通常抓不住重点或者反驳不完全
Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures.这个地方已经给出第一个值得狠狠的批斗的关键点“a dimming of the sun“最好的方法是以此为引导说出还有其他原因导致了 significantly cooler。这样一来就把火山喷发和撞击的可能性全包括进去了。
其次是你的first和second，讨论的内容就是到底是什么引起了“a dimming of the sun“文中给出的两种可能性为什么可以被推翻。这是攻击arguer给出的一个论据同样也能得到另一个结果。
再次就是讨论出了这种可能性以外还有其他可能导致“a dimming of the sun“的原因，这是攻击arguer在逻辑上考虑问题不完整。
这样，主要问题才攻击完，搂主的写法给人的感觉就是攻击点抓得不够到位以至全文说得有点不痛不痒。
说得有点狠了，不好意思，不对的地方还请指正。