argument109 同题第八期&★无敌拍场★第十二期作业

rosewmUID: 2183870

109.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.
"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices. "

没有自己写提纲，基本上按照同题里斑斑总结的写滴～

In this letter the author recommends establishing strict laws to limit new building construction will have no effect on average housing prices in Maple City. To support this recommendation the author cites the following facts: (1) the average housing prices in Pine City increased though established strict laws were designed to limit the number of new buildings; (2) the prices also increased in Chestnut City where never established any laws similarly. On the basis of these evidences the author infers that the laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. However, close scrutiny of these facts reveals that it lends little credible support for the author's assertion.

The author bases his/her claim partly on the fact that the average housing prices increased over the past twenty years in the two cities whether strict laws, which limit new building construction, were established. The author fails to establish the causal relationship between the laws established and the increased average price in each city. In Pine City, even if the strict laws were established, the author assumes further that the increased housing price is due to these laws. Perhaps this city is a mountainous city, which little ground is available for construction. Or perhaps the cost of new building is too high to keep the former level of housing price. Besides, the strict laws might be good for Pine City. The price will be significantly higher without limit. In Chestnut City, by contraries, it's entirely possible that one or more other factors influence the housing price. Such as a strong purchasing power, which is because of the large population, business prosperity and the high level of average incoming, leads to a great demand of buildings and the increasing price. In short, without making out other possible reasons for the housing price the author cannot convince me that the housing prices have increased in both Pine City and Chestnut City are caused by the same reason.

As my view above, it's a false analogy between the two cities. Different situation makes different effect. Thus, even if establishing strict laws to limit the number of new building is little efficiency in Pine City, while maybe not in Chestnut City. Vice versa. Therefore, the author also unfairly assumes further that the laws would not do effect in Maple City without any clear information provided to bolster his/her assertion. In short, without accounting for these and other possible dissimilarities, the author cannot assume that establishing laws to limit new building construction will be inefficacy in Maple City.

In addition, the arguer draws a hasty conclusion which is based on inadequate evidence in the last twenty years. There is a possibility that in Pine City twenty years ago, the request for new buildings was great that after those strict laws established, fewer new buildings were available in market, which made the average housing prices increased. On the contrary, establishing laws to limit the number of new buildings might be effective in recent condition of Maple City.

In conclusion, to persuade me that the laws will have no effect in Maple City, the author must supply more evidences that other factors affecting housing price in the two cities are essentially the same. The author must also provide more information about the economic and geographical condition in Maple City.