argument提纲 076G myth 小组第一次作业

杏林有情天UID: 2247728

26The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.

"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions.
False cause-effect relationship.乐队本身就有实力；只是赢得了地区性比赛，其他学校可能赢得了全国的，国际的。
In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years.
FALSE CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP。学院本来就打算添置仪器；企业，政府的资助，捐赠。
Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
让步假设，就算成功来自于MR。C。S的成就，但是他可能不是一个好的教育家，学术家，只是在竞赛方面更有优势而已，会有更好的，更合适的，更有经验的老师来制定音乐教学计划。
42The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled,
FALSE CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP外宾飞机在此地中转；外宾来这为了参观，考察此地的落后情况和原因；联合办厂。
and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent.
其他经济项目的贡献；国际援助；个人捐赠。
To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country,
FALSE ANALOGY。B AND P无可比性：B可能有着良好的生态资源，P是典型的都市；B的居民积极响应号召，P的居民可能会有不同意的意见和行动；B有政府和企业的支持，P没有。
we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
草率推广。他的能力在于管理而不是宣传；即使他参与宣传并有很大贡献，但是他的创意只适用于B NOT P。

48The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason.
FALSE CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP。环境污染；新的疾病出现；人们工作，生活压力。
FALSE ANALOGY。20年前，人们生活水平低，自然死亡率高，所以更注意健康，现在的居民可能不是很关心自己的健康，也可能健康的标准已经改变了。
But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.
样本可靠性？代表性？比率？ARGUER 均未说明。
Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause,
FALSE CAUSE-EFFECT RELATIONSHIP。花费低也许是导致经济衰退的原因，而不是结果；人手一台健身器不需灾买；导致经济衰退的原因：高失业率；通货膨胀；国家宏观调控的失策；战争的爆发。
and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
草率推广。
57The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba
随机样本？代表性？可信度？比率？
suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba.
FALSE ANALOGY。用了Z不仅25%得了新溃疡，并且有大于75%的人旧病复发；样本随机性？代表性？可信度？比率？
Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
草率推广。存在更有效的药。

97The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.

"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television.
女性是最大的收视主体。样本随机性？代表性？可信度？比率？看电视的男性和不看电视的男性比率是多少？
After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled.
False c-e.时间先后关系。W可能增加了更多女性，孩子喜爱的节目；或者增加了新闻，法律评论等男性爱看的节目。
To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
FALSE ANALOGY。也许K与W不是同一个国家的；K的收视范围包含了更多不看电视的男性，但是很多看电视的女性。
109The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.

"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably.
False cause-effect relationship.时间先后关系；城市扩建，P成中心；大人物，明星进住，提高了知名度。
Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction.
错误类比。C AND P存在许多不同，这就不一一摆出，知名度，居民，环境等等。
So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices.
无证据，影响房价原因有很多，也许LAWS也是其中之一。
So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices."
草率推广。
141The following appeared in a newsletter distributed at a recent political rally.

"Over the past year, the Consolidated Copper Company (CCC) has purchased over one million square miles of land
可能是W。F的九牛一毛之地，不至于造成DISASTER。
in the tropical nation of West Fredonia. Mining copper on this land will inevitably result in pollution and environmental disaster,
未对DISASTER定义。CCC的所作所为利大于过对人类而言。
since West Fredonia is home to several endangered animal species.
有无存在的必要；CCC开发了土地，可能同时改善了他们的生存环境。
But such disaster can be prevented if consumers simply refuse to purchase products that are made with CCC's copper until the company abandons its mining plans."
即使CCC不开发，也会有其他的公司，只抵制CCC的产品就够了吗？更何况抵制有用吗？也许CCC并不把产品销售到抵制的地区。

142The article entitled 'Eating Iron' in last month's issue of Eating for Health reported that a recent study found a correlation between high levels of iron in the diet and an increased risk of heart disease. Further, it is well established that there is a link between large amounts of red meat in the diet and heart disease, and red meat is high in iron. On the basis of the study and the well-established link between red meat and heart disease, we can conclude that the correlation between high iron levels and heart disease, then, is most probably a function of the correlation between red meat and heart disease.
这道题实在没什么完整的思路。借鉴了一下网上提纲。
○1含铁高与心脏病没有因果关系。
○2牛羊肉与心脏病没有因果关系。可能是牛羊肉的其他物质导致。
○3即使是牛羊肉中的铁导致心脏病，其他饮食中可能含量更高。

153The following is from an editorial in the Midvale Observer, a local newspaper.

"Ever since the 1950's, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers in the country of Alta has steadily increased.
旧时代无电视的时候，战争犯罪更严重。
This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch violent shows.
暴力等同于犯罪吗？差异概念。犯罪的原因：个人极端主义；工作，学习，生活压力；人性恶的体现。
犯罪的人中有多少看电视，有多少不看？
Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who indicated that prime-time television—
样本可靠性？代表性？比率？
programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.—should show less violence. Therefore, in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time."
再别的时间看暴力片难道就可有效制止暴力行为吗？

179The following is a memorandum written by the director of personnel to the president of the Cedar Corporation.

"It would be a mistake to rehire the Good-Taste Company to supply the food in our employee cafeteria next year. It is the second most expensive caterer in the city.
也许是它的食品和服务质量很高使得它成为全市第二贵的餐饮服务商。
In addition, its prices have risen in each of the last three years, and it refuses to provide meals for people on special diets.
它就是面向大众的餐厅，有特殊餐饮要求的人也许是故意刁难。
Just last month three employees complained to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience 'unbearable.'
UNBEATABLE 的定义是什么？是侵犯了他们的尊严了吗？也许是他们先挑衅的，在调和不成的情况下，餐厅未按照他们的意思作出道歉。
满意度和不满意度之比是多少？
Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Discount is a family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry.
不构成因果关系。员工们可能会更喜欢蔬菜类的餐饮；
难道只有D一个公司可以胜任吗？也许它不是最适合的。
I recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and it was delicious—an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee satisfaction."
难道你的口味就代表一切吗？
180The following is a recommendation from the personnel director to the president of Acme Publishing Company.

"Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year.
错误的因果关系。第一个雇员可能本身就很有这方面的天分；他也许以前更快，但是自从上完课后就慢了；第二个雇员是因为本身具备管理才能才能被提升；或者他对公司的贡献足以使他得到这个职位；也或许他走了后门。
样本随机性？代表性？可信度？比率？
Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday.
错误类比。BUSINESS AND ILLITERATE。我们又不要文学速读，处理公务需要谨慎小心。
Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee—a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read course."
THE ASSUMPTION THAT IS OPEN TO DUOUBT。如果这个课对员工没什么帮助，那么公司可能为上千甚至更多员工缴费上课岂不是很荒谬。
190The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.

"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined,
人们大多数喜欢现买现看。
indicating lack of community support.
不构成因果关系。
Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather.
也许这正是原因，因为很多人不希望在坏天气下看音乐会，没有心情，有人去看，但我们必须考虑它的比率。
Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts,
FALSE C-E。喜欢现代音乐的人的比率？喜欢R的音乐的人的比率；也许是因为大家现在更愿意在家观看音乐会了，所以导致了票数的下跌。
whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings.
样本代表性？随机性？
This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."
也许会增加G市的票的销量，但是推不出可以增加其他城市音乐会售票量。
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205The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.

"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately.
FALSE C-E。时间关系。也许破坏分子因为什么原因-感化，进监狱，去旅游-未想到去破坏，不然打碎灯也算是破坏。
The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant.
也许巡警偷懒了；或者在他们的休息时间；也许有些人认为在这样的情况下搞破坏更刺激。
Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."
情况不同无可比性。也许A市本来就是个破坏公物发生率很高的城市，连巡警都不怕了，更不用说灯了。
草率推广。城市的繁荣标准不只是减少公物破坏率这么简单的，它需要社会各方面的努力。
214In each city in the region of Treehaven, the majority of the money spent on government-run public school education comes from taxes that each city government collects.
P与A的税收不等，P市收的更多，用于教育也更多。
The region's cities differ, however, in the value they place on public education.
FALSE C-E。毫无证据。
For example, Parson City typically budgets twice as much money per year as Blue City does for its public schools—even though both cities have about the same number of residents. It seems clear, therefore, that Parson City residents care more about public school education than do Blue City residents.
居民数量差不多，并不意味着学生数量相同，也许P市的学校很知名，所以许多学生慕名而来；政府资助。

237The following appeared as part of an article in a local Beauville newspaper.

"According to a government report, last year the city of Dillton reduced its corporate tax rate by 15 percent; at the same time, it began offering relocation grants and favorable rates on city utilities to any company that would relocate to Dillton.
D市政府拥有一定经济实力，愿意贡献与社会；城市居民希望得到更多公司的服务；国家给予资助。
Within 18 months, two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton, where they employ a total of 300 people.
在如此长的时间内才两个企业进驻该市，而且才雇佣了300人，也许该市的失业人口3000或更多。这如何能看出是快速发展当地经济。
Therefore, the fastest way for Beauville to stimulate economic development and hence reduce unemployment is to provide tax incentives and other financial inducements that encourage private companies to relocate here."
B和D无可比性。
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