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147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
正文:
In the argument the, providing a recent survey and some analysis based on the survey, speaker asserts that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to reverse the decreasing trend and have a increasing amount of sales. The claim seems to be reasonable at the first glance, but with further analysis, it appears to suffer from several logical fallacies as follows.
Primarily, the credibility of the conclusion drawn in the survey-game players desire the kind of video games which provide lifelike graphic much- is open to doubt. The author does not offer necessary information to confirm that the players being asked in the survey were selected randomly. Thus, I have enough reasons to doubt that the survey only asked those who prefer games of high graphic quality, and further the part of these players was only of a little percentage. It is quite possible that most of game players are prone to choose the games easy to operate or with better stories. Accordingly, based on this hypothesis I presented above, the game of Whirlwind were only attractive to only a small part of players.
What's more, even grant that the conclusion of the survey is in accordance with the reality-most of the players desire the quality of graphics much, as for the games need most up-to-date computers, insufficient evidence is provided to show that the common computer condition can match the requirement of Whirlwind's games. Possibly, the requirement of Whirlwind's games in graphics is far more advanced than the development of computer. So without enough support in hardware, the players would not be inclined to buy the product of Whirlwind, even though the games are excellent in graphics.
In addition, the author offers insufficient data to convince me that people 10 to 25 years old was the group who like video games most and have enough time to enjoy the games. The reality, possibly, reveals that the people below 10 or above 25 are the very group who are fond of video games most. Or, people age 10 to 25 years old are busy studying in schools, and then have little time to play video games. So, to this extent, aiming at a improper target, the extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old worked efficiently to enlarge Whirlwind’s sales.
To make the assertion more convincing, the author needs to present more detail information and evidence to confirm the credibility of the survey and analysis related to the survey.
[ Last edited by forevera on 2005-8-25 at 13:38 ] |
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