argument25 jingjing（kito）

jingjingtousUID：2164820

OPIC：ARGUMENT 25 - The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

提纲：
1 错误因果，golf course and resort hotel is not the reason for the improvement of economy in Ocean View.
2 样本差异，在OV成功不代表在H也成功
3 没有考虑可能带来的问题和其它可行的办法

Through quoting the fact that the economy in the town of Ocean View has been improved after the establishment of a new municipal golf course and resort hotel, the author concludes that the best way to enhance Hopewell's economy is to make a similar construction in Ocean View. This suggestion seems sound at my first glance, however, after a close scrutiny, I find it is flawed in several aspects.

First of all, the author unfairly assumes that the increase of tourism and tax revenues and the opening of new businesses in Ocean View are attributable to the construction based on the fact that all these phenomena occur after the construction. However, the sequence of these events, in itself, does not suffice to prove that the former is caused by the latter. There are some possible explanations for these happenings: 1) perhaps there are several natural parks near Ocean View being established recently, and perhaps the environment in Ocean View was ameliorated significantly, as a consequence, many new tourists came here. 2) It is entirely possible that the local government implemented some attractive and beneficial policies such as reducing the taxes for the new enterprises; as a result, plenty of companies elsewhere invested the native business or settled down at Ocean View. 3) The statistics about the increase of tax revenues which the author provides are too vague to be informative. It is highly possible that the total amount of people has increased due to the immigrations while the average of tax revenues for each person might be decreased. Eventually, the author cannot guarantee that the building of the new golf course and resort hotel is responsible for the increased tourism and revenues and also the new business, we cannot be convinced by the conclusion.

Moreover, even if the construction in Ocean View improved the local economy, the author unfairly assumes that Hopewell's economy would be enhanced by carrying out the same policy of building a similar golf course and resort hotel. Apparently, the author overlooks some factors which would affect the economies of the two areas, for instance, the number of local populations, the distinct geographies, the traffic conditions, the environment and so forth. Therefore, we strongly doubt that by such a similar construction, Hopewell's economy would be improved-let alone about the additional tax revenues.

Finally, the author neglects some problems which the local government in Hopewell might encounter in the process of construction. Perhaps the costs of building such a new golf course and holiday hotel might exhaust the government a huge amount of money which will not be sanctioned by its finance. And furthermore, perhaps the construction would have bad influence on the living conditions of residents such as the boring noise and the air pollutions, for that case, the citizens would not sponsor the costly project. In addition, the author also overlooks some effective and practical methods which can contribute the development of local economy, for example, to improve traffic situation and environment and implement new tax policies to encourage alien investment.

In sum, the argument is problematic in several facets as it stands. Before accepting the conclusion, the author should provide the clear evidence that the new golf course and resort hotel would certainly result in the improvement of Hopewell's economy and also make a concrete comparison between the two cities and more importantly, consider some other effective methods to facilitate the economy of Hopewell.