argument65【义无反顾】小组第24次作业

lazyfishUID: 2220033

1。单独一个新店的例子缺乏普遍性和说服力
2。杂志的统计不完备，样本覆盖不周全
3。减少库存=>增加利润的逻辑有问题

In this argument, the speaker concludes that to stop stocking various imported cheeses and focus chiefly on domestic cheeses could help improve profits in all of their cheese stores since the expense of the company will be reduced by limiting inventory. To support this conclusion, the arguer provides the evidence that domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin has occupied the top five salerooms at their newest store. Besides, the speaker cites the result of a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine which points out that their subscribers have become more and more favor domestic cheeses. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

To begin with, the evidence of the newest store cited in the statement is not necessarily persuasive. Firstly, the optimistic sales condition of domestic cheeses in the newest store is only a selective sample which cannot represent the overall stores. Perhaps the store is located in Wisconsin or people living in the neighborhood around the store have certain close relationships with Wisconsin. Secondly, we cannot equal best-selling with good profit. It is entirely possible that the good saleroom of the domestic cheddar cheese is due to their low price. It is also reasonable to doubt that whether these kinds of cheeses will remain on the best-selling list in the future. In short, without better evidence that the example is statistically and logically reliable, it is unadvisable for us to draw any firm conclusions about the favor of the consumers in the huge market according to the condition in a particular store.

In addition, the cited results from the recent survey about increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers might be unreliable in other respects as well since it is a selective sample. The consequence is based only on data from the subscribers of Cheeses of the World magazine. However, it is not mentioned in the survey the number of people who subscribe the magazine, which might be too limited to represent the whole situation. Besides, the author overlooks the possibility that people who favor imported cheeses did not report the questionnaire or even did not read the magazine. What’s more, the author also ignores the possibility that the major customers of the magazine might be the producers or salesmen of the cheeses, rather than the consumers, which cannot illustrate the preference of domestic cheeses in the real consuming market. Without ruling out these possible scenarios, it is not reasonably for the author to rely on the result of this survey to support the claim of the increasing preference for domestic cheeses.

Last but not the least, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the expenses could be reduced by limiting inventory, it does not follow that there will be greater profits for the stores. As we know, the increasing of profits depends on several major factors such as cost and saleroom. The author does not provide any solid information concerning the cost of production processes and market conditions which might exert grand influences on profits. Actually, the author’s recommendation of limiting inventory and focus mainly on domestic cheeses as the best way to enhance profits would most probably turn out to be ineffective and unpersuasive.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the speaker didn’t take enough consideration of the completeness of the survey and the critical representativeness of a single new store. Besides, the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the speaker maintains. To strengthen the argument, the speaker would have to provide more information concerning the situation of the cost and saleroom of domestic cheeses. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more reasoning on the relationship between limiting inventory and increasing profits.

hzyj0322UID: 2155800

Argument65 谢谢拍转~

题目
Argument65 The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

翻译： 很多年来我们的所有连锁店都储备了很多种类的国产奶酪和进口奶酪。然而去年，我们的最新店里五种销量最高的奶酪都是威斯康星出产的cheddar奶酪。而且，最近一次由Cheese of the World杂志所举行的调查显示，其订阅者对于国产奶酪的倾向性越来越高。由于我们公司可以通过限制库存来减少开支，在我们所有连锁店增加盈利的最好方式就是停止贮备很多进口奶酪而主要集中于国产奶酪。

一 去年威斯康星出产的cheddar奶酪比较火，
1那是去年的事情了，今年不一定了，或许顾客口味变了，不会再大量购买这种奶酪，
2最新店最好卖的不一定所有的店都好卖，可能是搞促销活动，也或许新店地方的人比较喜欢这个口味

二 杂志订阅者倾向与国产奶酪
1 调查是否有效，调查的时间， 人数，范围
2即使调查有效，那调查人群只是杂志订购者，并不说明所有购买本店奶酪的顾客都喜欢国产的.
3即使顾客都喜欢，但只偏爱是一种倾向，喜欢并不一定会购买，比如价格问题

三 停止贮存进口奶酪而集中于国产奶酪
1 国内市场变化，原料上涨，奶酪价格会增加，进口奶酪会重新占领市场
2 缩减进口奶酪的销售会失去很多老顾客

In this memo, the president of the chains of cheese stores suggest that they stop storing the import cheese in order to minimize the cost while maximize the profit, according to the sales in the some stores and a recent survey in a magazine called Cheeses in the World. The president's evidences seem reasonable and enough, but after careful examinations, we can find out several flaws as follows.

First of all, we can not estimate the whole sales of cheese of all from the sales of some certain chain stores. These five stores can not tell what the best-selling cheese throughout the country is. Even if the five stores can tell us cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin sell best throughout the whole nation, it was the best-selling cheese last year and we do not know whether it will remain the most popular in the future. It may sell best last year because of promotion activities in the new stores such as lowing the price of Wisconsin cheddar cheeses and those kinds of cheeses were sold at very low price, and its sale may be seriously hurt for the absence of these activity, or it may be a new kind of cheese which attracted the customers who will not remain interested in this cheese when they are familiar with this new cheese.  Even if it this kind domesticate cheese will keep its highest sale in the future, no evidence shows that all the other domestic ones are as popular as the cheddar cheese, therefore it is absurd to predict the domesticate cheeses will dominate the national market just from the sale in last year of only one kind cheese from just five stores of our chain.

Secondly, the survey from the magazine can not be considered as the reason why we have to stop our stocking imported cheeses. The president provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of all our customers, as is mentioned above, they are the magazine’s subscribers. Perhaps these subscribers are cheese experts who like domestic cheese for their original taste, or there have been advertisements or articles about domestic cheese in the magazine for a long time that affects these subscribers. Given that the subscribers can represent all customers purchase our cheese, their preference of domestic cheese may be not converted into purchase power. They like the domestic ones, however perhaps they can not afford domestic cheese for price reasons. Besides, an increase preference can not indicate most people like domestic cheese, but more and more people like it, and if this proportion is still small after years of increasing, they will not profit from the policy to stop stocking domestic cheese.

Finally, the president failed to consider some other reasons that will effect our profits when accept the new policy to ignore the imported cheese. Perhaps for some reasons the cost of raw material raise nationwide which will lead to the raise in cost of the domestic cheese, thus the price raises, while imported cheese remain their lower price, and they will not profit. Moreover, they will lose many customers, who are already used to imported cheeses, and maybe the expense cut down from stocking imported cheese can not compensate the profit they lose from those customers

To sum up, the president's suggestion is hard to persuade others because all the three evidences he provides are doubtful and baseless. To make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to study the genuine reason for the new store's statistical result, to give out more information about the magazine's survey, and to prove that to stop selling imported cheese can really improve profits..

[ 本帖最后由 hzyj0322 于 2006-6-14 01:21 编辑 ]

even1985310UID: 2105390

ARGUE 65
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."


Conclusion of this argument is that the best way of the chain of cheese stores to improve profits in all of their stores is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheese. The author’s reason is solely that there was a high sale of domestic cheese from Wisconsin in one of their stores and a resent survey conducted by Cheese of the World magazine showed an increasing preference for domesticate cheese. The argument in unconvincing because it commits several fallacies like cited below.

The main problem in this argument is that the best selling cheese in their newest store does necessarily imply the same situation in other of their stores. All we know is just the sales situation in one of their stores is high in one year, but the author has never quoted other stores sales conditions, nor has he/she drop a word into the position of the newest store or the level of consumption of the local people if they can representative of the cheese customers. How could he/she know that all the stores around the country also achieve the same results as the newest one? We may imagine that if other stores’ condition pf sale were just the opposite or the newest store was just in Wisconsin and already had an definite custom, or most of their customs’ can just afford to buy this kind of cheese, then the conclusion will be weaken.

Another point worth considering is that the arguer fails to take into account the sale condition during the last period of years in other stores. Even if the five best selling cheeses were domestic, no evidence showed that this trending would continue in the newest one and in other stores. It is equally possible an controversy occurrences.

When we probe into the result of the survey conduced by Cheeses of the World magazine. Firstly if the survey’s informant is typical of all the people, like: whether it has include all the levels of peoples of level of consumptions, whether it covered all of the cheese consuming area. Secondly how was the survey conducted is it scientific and objective? If the speaker has draw the real result. So we have every reason to be doubtful about that whether there is increasing perfection for domestic cheese. Thirdly, the method of the statistics used this case also arouse question and skepticism, how it was conduced. If we can’t find any particular information about this survey, we could not so sure about the conclusion that the preference for domestic cheese is increasing.

After pointing out so many obvious flaws in the argument, now we can say the results used to support the conclusion cannot be relied on. More detailed and reliable surveys should be taken if the chain of stores wants to make a profitable plan and avoid undeniable risks.

yuviUID: 2169411

提綱：
1．        新店銷售不足以説明問題
a)        折扣等價格因素
b)        短期時段不等于長期需求
c)        有可能新店所處於wisconsin
2．        雜誌調查的可信度
a)        調查本身採用形式和範圍
b)        訂約者不等于所有消費者的喜好
3．        減少庫存不等于開支大頭，也不見得所有店都適合這麽做

In this memo, the author claims that to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses will increase the profits for all of the cheese stores in the chain. To support the contention, the author cites some evidences, however, after a carefully examination, I found the argument suffers from a series of logical problems, and is therefore wholly unpersuasive.

To begin with, the author's conclusion depends on the selling-rates of the newest store in last year. Common sense informs us that the best-selling rates in the newest store cannot indicate the sales of all stores. Because it always has promotions when a new store open, and consider, the price might highly be an important factor for people in the consuming progress. Moreover, the new store was only opened less than one year, and as we all know, people's favorites with cheeses are normally hard to change, therefore, the good selling in a short time cannot be an evidence for consumer’s long-term demand. Thirdly, the author does not mention the location of the newest store, and it probably just located in Wisconsin, and the residents in such state are likely to buy their home-brand cheddar cheese much more than out-state people. Hence, fails to consider all these or other possibilities, the author cannot simply conclude that the sales in the newest store show a relationship with all the demands in the cheese market.

In the second place, the author does not provide any information about the Cheeses of the World magazine and therefore the survey cannot be seen as it stands. On one hand, the author does not mention anything about the method, and the area of such survey, it might be in a limit area and the survey also lacks the credibility. On the other hand, the subscribers of the magazine cannot be suggest as whole potential consumers of the cheese market. It is possible that the Cheeses of the World magazines are specific for the chefs or cheeses sellers, and their preferences cannot to indicate all other customers in the sense of some business considerations. In short, the survey provides by the Cheeses of the World lacks validities to indicate that domestic cheeses will be increase in the way of the sales.

Last but not the least, even assuming that there is an increase trend for domestic cheeses, the author also fallacious to conclude that profits will be improve in all stores of the chain. Consider, to limit inventory does not mean the expenses will be reduce straight away. And it is highly possible that the stores might loss a part of their old customers who prefer to the imported cheeses. Moreover, different areas got their own situations in the way of cheese sales, simply suggest that all store to reduce the stock of imported cheeses and concentrate on domestic cheeses is not justifiable, at least without evidence to support it.

In sum, the author's argument cannot be taken seriously as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must show that some strong evidence to indicate the increase trend in the domestic cheeses. To better evaluate the argument, we would need to know what the exact situations in the chain of the cheese stores, and also the relationship between their inventory and the profits.

(547 words)

shan_yfUID: 2182345

啪啪啦！！！！

提纲：---
去年的结果不适用于将来，而且newest store也不能代表all stores；
subscribers是否具有代表性，同时也未提及消费者对于imported的态度，也许会更倾向；
他因可以使利润上升，减库存不见得是best way。

In this memo, the arguer recommends the company should focus on the domestic cheeses instead of imported ones to increase revenue. The president reaches the conclusion on the basis that a sale rank in last year and a recent survey conducted by the World magazine. These statistics reason the trend that domestic cheeses have had a predominance comparing with the imported cheeses. Careful examination of this aforementioned evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the recommendation.

A threshold fallacy with the argument involves that the record in last year is unconvincing. In a flexible market circumstance, it is possible that  the rank may totally distinct between last year and this year. Namely, only depending on the past rank are the best-selling cheeses uncertainly all domestic ones nowadays. There are no sufficient reasons to guarantee the ungrounded prediction that domestic cheeses can still be more popular. Even if the rank is unchangeable, the newest store rarely reveals the whole sale achievement of all stores. Perhaps several other respects, for instance, a district factor or a season factor, result in this record of the newest store.

To further support this claim, the president cites a consequence in a recent survey. Although the survey seems reliable in the first glance, it also suffers from the following flaws. On one hand, the president fails to indicate whether the subscribers can represent the opinions of all consumers. It is difficult to ensure that all customs participate this survey organized by the World magazine . At the same time, respondents likely claim their preferences incorrectly due to some profitable sale activities. Granted that the survey is acceptable, the president provides no attitudes of individuals about the imported cheeses. If the preference for them increases more dramatically than that for domestic cheeses, this recommendation is particularly questionable.

Finally, the president reach the hasty conclusion. No facts are offered to persuade the company that to discontinue stocking is the best way to promote profits. Perhaps, competitors that appeal greater attention from customers impose the revenue of all stores. It is necessary to carry out a comprehensive analysis rather than simply to assume effective strategies.

In conclusion, the argument will become substantiated after declaring adequate statistics and evidences. To strengthen this suggestion, specific sale rank in all stores is indispensable while a representative survey can similarly illustrate the declaration. Also, the president should focus on all possibilities to increase profits.

yuviUID: 2169411

第24次作业互改顺序:

shan_yf -->yuvi --->jiqixueyuan -->even1985310 -->  hzyj0322 --->lazyfish -->shan_yf

yuviUID: 2169411

The authors(哪里来的authors？) asserts that discontinue stocking many of our various imported cheese and concentrate cruelly on domestic cheeses（感觉这句话好象还没说完喔。）. In order to justify this conclusion, the author provides sell （sales）of cheeses in the newest stores and a recent study conducted by the World magazine（晕倒，不是世界杂志，是杂志的名字叫《奶酪世界》，呵呵，看题目要注意了）. However, after scrutiny ,we can find that there are several flaws in this essay, as follows.

To begin with, our newest store is not representative of all the stores in our chain. Because all stores in our （干吗要以第一人称的形式写驳论文？？用第一人称感觉不够客观。。）chain situate in  different places, have different consumers and these consumers' taste is different with each other. It is entirely possible that most of consumers in other stores shops  favor  the imported cheeses  rather than domestic cheeses because of their taste. Or perhaps it is more convenient for the consumers who love domestic cheeses to pursue in our newest stores than do in other stores（这里不太懂什么意思？）. without ruling out these possibility, the author can not justify his or her conclusion that the circumstance happens in our newest store can appears in our other stores all over the nation.（恩，第一段写新店不代表所有的店）
In addition, the survey dictated by Cheeses of the World magazine is unpersuasive  . On the one hand, the author does not supply us that the numbers of subscribers who took part in this survey. Perhaps the numbers of subscribers is so few that these subscribers can not be statistically representative of all the consumers of cheeses.（有可能） On the other hand, it is also not  excluded that there are a large number of subscribers did not join in this study or only few consumers who like the imported cheeses subscribed this magazine（刚才假设订阅的人数很少，现在怎么又转口说有大量订阅者没有参与？岂不是倒打一耙？）. Because of  these existed possibility, the author can not prove his or her conclusion that this survey is able to indicate consumers in others stores like domestic cheeses too.
Finally, the author does not provide enough evidence to show all of our stores will improve profits, although our company can decrease expense though limiting inventory. However, the author neglects that if all of our stores concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses, our company will lose many consumers who like imported cheeses, and thus the profits maybe fall. It is possible that the phanoninan that consumers like domestic cheeses  only lasts very short time, （这样说的根据是什么呢？）and most of consumers  turn out to buy the imported cheeses in the near future. （假设没有根据来源？？）If so, the author can not demonstrate his or her conclusion that the best way to improve profits is to stop stocking many of our imported cheeses and concentrate mainly on domestic cheese.

In sum, the author does not persuade me in several aspects. To enhance the persuasion of this argument, the author should offer that consumers in other stores are the same like  domestic cheeses as consumers in our newest store , subscribers who were involved in this survey（那个杂志订阅者的意见就这么重要嘛？刚才不是才怀疑了，现在却又给予肯定，不是有些矛盾么？感觉PK在这里好象被题目饶进去了哈。）, and our company can not lose consumers who love to eat imported cheeses.


总结：

提几个小意见：
1．        驳论文最好就不要用第一人称的形式来写了吧。感觉不是那么客观。
2．        做总结最好抓住重点，不用把整个题目涉及到的信息都提一遍哈，不然文章里出现过的怀疑点，结果在结尾又被间接得肯定了。
有些小地方上的处理，比如假设人们喜欢国产奶酪是暂时的，等等没有给出合理的解释。。（可以编个理由说，可能国产奶酪的材料最近特别特别便宜，所以才会卖得好，等过段时间恢复了价格，可能又不及进口的销售量了。。）

kittywen_16UID: 2135347

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 394          TIME: 上午 12:30:00          DATE: 2006-6-14

The argument seems to be convicing and sound at the first glance because the author concludes a best way to improve the profits of all their stores is to discontinue their imported cheese while increasing domoetic cheese.He draws the conlusion on the base of several compelling evidnce. However, there some logical flaws in the argument if we take a careful scrutiny.

Firstly, it is presumptious to predict the increaing profit in furtur of all stores according to five  new stors' selling preformance. As we informed from the memo, the augor merely gives us the selling information in their newest stores. We can not justifiably exlude the assumtion that the customers nearby are favorite to  the demostic cheese. Thus, this is not necessarily warrant other stores in their chian will sell same products well for  cousomers m have various taste. What's more, only one-year performance indicating an increasing trend does not mean the domestic cheese will remain popular in the furture. Unless the arguer can provide more evidence concerning about the popularity of the imported cheese in all their chain stors,and can keep a long time , can we accept his conclusion without doubting.

Seconly, the survey is not sufficent to validate the conclusion.We do not know how the survey was conducted. What is the portion of the surveyers respodented the poll? How well the respodents  can represent of the attitude of the whole customers? Commen sense tells us ,the survey confined to the subscribers of the Cheese of the World  can only reflects their  phychological intention rather than their realistic behaviour. There are many other factors affect the subscribers'  choices even though they show great interest in the domestic cheese,such as the price, quality, brand.Without clear information , it is permature of the arguer to draw his conclusion resting  on the survey.

Last but not the least, the author fails to consider others factors that will affect the revenue in the future. Contigences such as the cost of storking, the uncertain demand in the market,  the advertising of propagander from his rivals,will have great influence in the profit . Without take into account the above facors ,the author can not present his assertion so hasty.

In sum, in order to increase the profit and reduce expence , there is many ways rather than limiting inventory espeically the imported cheese. More market investigation and detailed plan are required. Deep down, taking into account the defferent taste of the customers in their defferent stores is more critical.

提纲：去年五个新店的销售情况不能说明国产奶酪受到所有消费者的青睐；
         调查不清楚，是否具有代表性；只是反映他们的想法；
         没有考虑市场上其他影响利润的因素；

[ 本帖最后由 kittywen_16 于 2006-6-14 20:00 编辑 ]

shan_yfUID: 2182345

改作文 shan_yf -->yuvi

In this memo, the author claims that to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses will increase the profits for all of the cheese stores in the chain. To support the contention, the author cites some evidences, however, after a carefully (careful)examination, I found (find阐述观点的时候还是现在时好些 ：）)the argument suffers from a series of logical problems, and is therefore wholly unpersuasive.

To begin with, the author's conclusion depends on the selling-rates(不确定排名应该用什么，我用的是rank) of the newest store in last year. Common sense informs us that the best-selling rates in the newest store cannot indicate the sales of all stores. Because it always has promotions when a new store open, and consider,(consider是插入吗？) the price might highly be an important factor for people in the consuming progress. Moreover, the new store was only opened less than one year, and as we all know, people's favorites with cheeses are normally hard to change, therefore, the good selling in a short time cannot be an evidence for consumer’s long-term demand.(感觉从逻辑上，先说as we all know再假设store开的时间短比较好) （这个论点值得学习）Thirdly, the author does not mention the location of the newest store, and it probably just located in Wisconsin, and (where)the residents [in such state略] are likely to buy their home-brand cheddar cheese much more than out-state people. Hence, fails(failing) to consider all these or other possibilities, the author cannot simply conclude that the sales in the newest store show a relationship with all the demands in the cheese market.

In the second place, the author does not provide any information about the Cheeses of the World magazine and therefore the survey cannot be seen as it stands. On one hand, the author does not mention anything about the method, and the area of such survey, it(which可以用定从连接) might be in a limit(limited) area and [the survey由于定从而省略] also lacks the credibility. On the other hand, the subscribers of the magazine cannot be suggest as (represent the)whole potential consumers of the cheese market. It is possible that the Cheeses of the World magazines are specific for the chefs or cheeses sellers, and their preferences cannot to [cannot可以用一些否定副词替换 rarely seldom hardly 还可以顺便倒装] indicate all other customers in the sense of some business considerations. In short, the survey provides(provided) by the Cheeses of the World lacks validities to indicate that domestic cheeses will be increase in the way of the sales.

Last but not the least, even assuming that there is an increase(increasing) trend for domestic cheeses, the author is also fallacious to conclude that profits will be improve in all stores of the chain. Consider, to limit inventory does not mean the expenses will be reduce straight away. And it is highly possible that the stores might loss(lose) a part of their old customers who prefer to the imported cheeses. Moreover, different areas got their own situations in the way of cheese sales, simply suggest that all store to [前面可以考虑用suggestion 加同位语表达] reduce the stock of imported cheeses and concentrate on domestic cheeses is not justifiable, at least without evidence to support it.

In sum, the author's argument cannot be taken seriously as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must show that some strong evidence to indicate the increase trend in the domestic cheeses. To better evaluate the argument, we would need to know what(about接名次词组 不用what ) the exact situations in the chain of the cheese stores, and also the relationship between their inventory and the profits.

yuvi mm 写的好多哦！！论据丰富，对arg的脉络把握的很到位，还有就是在每个分论点的结尾都能用 hence therefore in short等作小结 :victory: 开头和结尾也不错
我的水平有限 就说这么多啦:)

[ 本帖最后由 shan_yf 于 2006-6-14 10:43 编辑 ]

lionprinceUID: 2217595

1, 地区现在卖的好, 这种是有他因的
2, 调查,
3, 在攻击, 作者过于草率, 由地方推全国， 而且对profit进行攻击

In this argument, the arguer intends to convince us that in order to earn the greater profits, the cheese stores should stop selling the imported cheese and convert into selling the domestic cheeses. To support the conclusion, the arguer assumes that the people are not population with imported cheese. Further, the arguer cites the survey conducted by world magazine that its subscribers tend to increase the interest about domestic cheeses. However, as it stands, the argument is not well-reasoned due to the following critical fallacies.

Firstly, we lack of any evidence to improve the fact that the majority of people living in United States is favorite of domestic cheeses rather than imported. According to the record about the newest store, the arguer asserts the results. Nevertheless, the arguer neglects the possibilities about the hot sell about domestic cheese in years. For example, perhaps in order to stimulate the consumer and attract to the their eyes, the newest store carry out the some discounting activity so as a result this behavior prompt the desire of consumer. Even if inclining to domestic is true,   we seriously suspect whether the trend can keep in the future. After tasting the domestic cheeses long time, people maybe consider to experience the new tastes. We absent confidence to guarantee that the domestic cheese can continue keeping hot situation.

The second fallacy of the argument is that the arguer cites a false study conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine to substantiate the assumption used in the argument. In the argument, the arguer fails to offer us the exact number of the people being investigated, the age of those people and relative characteristics. And the survey fail to provide any data about the percentage of respondents.  Therefore, the survey used in the argument can not represent the truth in the reality due to the possibility of lacking large number of sampling and random sampling. As a result, the conclusion of the argument absent fo credibility.

Another problem with the argument is that the arguer draws a hasty conclusion  about discontinuing the supply of imported cheeses and only offering domestic  cheese for the publics.  This argument fails to take account into  the circumstances of selling domestic and imported cheeses separately. Perhaps even if the people have the increasing trendency for inclining the domestic cheeses, the profits the company earn from imported cheeses accounts up the majority of percentage and from over domestic. Therefore, if the company suspend the varieties of imported cheese, the company would lost much money. Moreover, even if the region the newest store locates in enjoy best-selling about domestic cheeses, the arguer can not conclude that the all region through the whole United States can also share the same situation. Perhaps, people living in nearby the newest store are custom to eat the domestic and have the traditional culture. In contrast, in the rest of regions people decline the taste of domestic cheeses. Finally, the arguer ignores the factors relates the profits, because many aspects, including costs in transport, raw material, staff and so forth. Yet, owing to several competitive companies sell domestic cheeses, in order to hold the consumer, the price of domestic cheeses is very low, and only just cover its costs.

To, sum up, the argument is hardly convincing because of the above fallacies. To, firmly support the argument, the arguer should make a more thorough consideration.

lazyfishUID: 2220033

lazyfish -->shan_yf

提纲：
去年的结果不适用于将来，而且newest store也不能代表all stores；
subscribers是否具有代表性，同时也未提及消费者对于imported的态度，也许会更倾向；
他因可以使利润上升，减库存不见得是best way。

In this memo, the arguer recommends the company should focus on the domestic cheeses instead of imported ones to increase revenue. The president reaches the conclusion on the basis that a sale rank in last year and a recent survey conducted by the World magazine.(on the basis that后面貌似该跟个从句，你这是个短语，可以把that改成of) These statistics reason(数据自己推理？:L可以说according to the statistics the arguer reason that) the trend that domestic cheeses have had a predominance comparing with the imported cheeses. Careful examination of this aforementioned evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the recommendation.(第一段把排名和杂志的论据概括得很好，减少库存以增加利润这个错误也提到了，比较全面)

A threshold fallacy with the argument involves that the record in last year is unconvincing. In a flexible market circumstance, it is possible that  the rank may（加上be）totally distinct between last year and this year. Namely, only depending on the past rank are the best-selling cheeses uncertainly all domestic ones nowadays. （这句话看不太懂，是倒装吗？）There are no sufficient reasons to guarantee the ungrounded prediction that domestic cheeses can still be more popular.（题目中也没说会more popular阿） Even if the rank is unchangeable（感觉这个词怪怪的，可以用stable）, the newest store rarely reveals the whole sale achievement of all stores. Perhaps several other respects, for instance, a district factor or a season factor, result in this record of the newest store.

To further support this claim, the president cites a consequence in a recent survey. Although the survey seems reliable in the first glance, it also suffers from the following flaws. On one hand, the president(这儿就是survey的毛病啦，不要赖人家president嘛) fails to indicate whether the subscribers can represent the opinions of all consumers. It is difficult to ensure that all customs participate this survey organized by the World magazine . At the same time, respondents likely claim their preferences incorrectly due to some profitable sale activities. Granted that the survey is acceptable, the president provides no attitudes of individuals about the imported cheeses. If the preference for them increases more dramatically than that for domestic cheeses, this recommendation（这段质疑的是调查，先不要提作者的建议为好，免得显得乱） is particularly questionable.（考虑的因素比较全面、语言也很好，可以对作者犯的逻辑错误概括一下，比如说这是一个选择性样本"selective sample"）

Finally, the president reach the hasty conclusion. No facts are offered to persuade the company that to discontinue stocking is the best way to promote profits. Perhaps, competitors that appeal greater attention from customers impose the revenue of all stores. It is necessary to carry out a comprehensive analysis rather than simply to assume effective strategies.（论述略显单薄，可以再多说几个提高利润的方法）

In conclusion, the argument will become substantiated after declaring adequate statistics and evidences. To strengthen this suggestion, specific sale rank in all stores is indispensable while a representative survey can similarly illustrate the declaration. Also, the president should focus on all possibilities to increase profits. （恩，最后总结挺充分的~）

even1985310UID: 2105390

even1985310 -->  hzyj0322
一 去年威斯康星出产的cheddar奶酪比较火，
1那是去年的事情了，今年不一定了，或许顾客口味变了，不会再大量购买这种奶酪，
2最新店最好卖的不一定所有的店都好卖，可能是搞促销活动，也或许新店地方的人比较喜欢这个口味

二 杂志订阅者倾向与国产奶酪
1 调查是否有效，调查的时间， 人数，范围
2即使调查有效，那调查人群只是杂志订购者，并不说明所有购买本店奶酪的顾客都喜欢国产的.
3即使顾客都喜欢，但只偏爱是一种倾向，喜欢并不一定会购买，比如价格问题

三 停止贮存进口奶酪而集中于国产奶酪
1 国内市场变化，原料上涨，奶酪价格会增加，进口奶酪会重新占领市场
2 缩减进口奶酪的销售会失去很多老顾客

In this memo, the president of the chains of cheese stores suggest that they stop storing the import cheese in order to minimize the cost while maximize the profit, according to the sales in the some stores and a recent survey in a magazine called Cheeses in the World. The president's evidences seem reasonable and enough, but after careful examinations, we can find out several flaws as follows.

First of all, we can not estimate the whole sales of cheese of all from the sales of some certain chain stores. These five stores（应该是CHEESE而不是STORE 把） can not tell what the best-selling cheese throughout the country is. Even if the five stores can tell us cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin sell best throughout the whole nation, it was the best-selling cheese last year and we do not know whether it will remain the most popular in the future（是否应该说明因为时间不够长，或者时间一年够长，但是没有足够的比较，比如其他奶酪的销售走势是否在向上升，是否销售量的高不是因为一直走势在增长而只是因为一时的销售量由于销售策略的原因使其销售量高涨没有否则这个论证的前提假设好象不充分，那这么说人们无法根据已有的数据来预测未来的走势搂？我们可以根据去年或是前几年来预测今年，但不能的是根据一个店的来预测今年走势）. It may sell best last year because of promotion activities in the new stores such as lowing the price of Wisconsin cheddar cheeses and those kinds of cheeses were sold at very low price, and its sale may be seriously hurt for the absence of these activity, or it may be a new kind of cheese which attracted the customers who will not remain interested in this cheese when they are familiar with this new cheese.  Even if it this kind domesticate cheese will keep its highest sale in the future, no evidence shows that all the other domestic ones are as popular as the cheddar cheese, therefore it is absurd to predict the domesticate cheeses will dominate the national market just from the sale in last year of only one kind cheese from just five stores of our chain.

Secondly, the survey from the magazine can not be considered as the reason why we have to stop our stocking imported cheeses. The president provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of all our customers, as is mentioned above, they are the magazine’s subscribers. Perhaps these subscribers are cheese experts who like domestic cheese for their original taste, or there have been advertisements or articles about domestic cheese in the magazine for a long time that affects these subscribers. Given that the subscribers can（NOT） represent all customers purchase our cheese, their preference of domestic cheese may be not converted into purchase power. They like the domestic ones, however perhaps they can not afford domestic cheese for price reasons. Besides, an increase preference can not indicate most people like domestic cheese, but more and more people like it, and if this proportion is still small after years of increasing, they will not profit from the policy to stop stocking domestic cheese.

Finally, the president failed to consider some other reasons that will effect our profits when accept the new policy to ignore the imported cheese. Perhaps for some reasons the cost of raw material raise nationwide which will lead to the raise in cost of the domestic cheese, thus the price raises, while imported cheese remain their lower price, and they will not profit. Moreover, they will lose many customers, who are already used to imported cheeses, and maybe the expense cut down from stocking imported cheese can not compensate the profit they lose from those customers

To sum up, the president's suggestion is hard to persuade others because all the three evidences he provides are doubtful and baseless. To make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to study the genuine reason for the new store's statistical result, to give out more information about the magazine's survey, and to prove that to stop selling imported cheese can really improve profits..
总结：文章整体论证有条有理，语言规范流畅
      对于从STORE来源数据的驳论是否可以再改进一点