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这是以前写的文,BAXIA组改员直接批6楼我自己修改过的,谢了.
这是偶的第一篇阿狗,大虾们不吝赐教啊,先谢下onlyear JJ
Argument 51
“Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment.”
The argument is not cogent because it is based on a result of an incredible experiment. The newsletter recommends that all the patients with muscle strain should take antibiotics for quicker recovery. However, the way of experiment is doubtful in such respects below.
First, the arguer overlooks the difference between the persons in two groups besides their different medicine taking. Obviously, the extent of hurt and the constitution of patients and other factors of patients just as the age and job or history of muscle disease are relative to the curing time. If the patients in first groups are younger athletes but the patients in second group are elder workers and suffering hard work for a long time, the condition of recovery is definitely different. Furthermore, we hardly know how many patients contained in each group, which also let the argument unconvincing. For example, there is just one person in first group and due to his good physical condition or other accident factor his curing time is shorter than others. It is possible. However, the arguer fails to account for these possibilities, which let the argument lost its representativeness.
Second, even if the conditions of patients in two groups are similar generally, the arguer overlooks the role that the two patients play. The curing ways, experience and level of an expert in support medicine and a generally physician is different, which lead to the different curing effect. Maybe the doctors in first group has more experience on muscle strain or the have more credibility in patients’ opinion. It is possible that his/her patients would recover faster. Without the concern about the different doctors’ influence on patients, the quicker time of first group means little.
Third, even if all these conditions above are the same, the different results of two groups cannot manifest the influential factor is secondary infection. Though antibiotics has remarkable effect on curing infection, but we cannot draw a conclusion that the patients in first group recover faster just because the antibiotics keep the patients from being infected, since we do not know the patients in second group have been infected because of not taking antibiotics. It is entirely possible that antibiotics have other effect on these patients besides curing infection. Lacking the evidence that antibiotics make the recovery fast by curing secondary infection, we can hardly believe the arguer’s recommendation.
Finally, even if the result of experiment reveals that antibiotics make the curing time shorter, the arguer cannot make the conclusion that all the patients with muscle strain should take antibiotics, because the experiment only reveals antibiotics are effective to these patients in first group. Perhaps some people have resistance to antibiotics, or even may be allergic to antibiotics. Moreover, antibiotics may have side effect on body which may be not salutary. Without the concern about these probable problems, the arguer’ recommendation is still unwarranted.
Thus, although the experiment shows the quicker time of the antibiotics-takers recovery, it is unconvincing to support the final conclusion that all the patients with muscle strain should take antibiotics.
[ 本帖最后由 ddloveyy 于 2006-10-14 14:54 编辑 ] |
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