argu45

baotian1UID: 2797192

In this argument, the author states that because of global warming, the number of arctic deer is unable to follow their age-old migration pattern through the frozen sea, so as to declining the number of the dear. However, after further consideration of this argument, it has some flaws. I will analyze them one by one as following.

First of all, the information source is not very convincing. According to the author, local hunters report the deer populations declining. Are the respondents representative? The author doesn't provide the information that why the hunters have this conclusion. Perhaps, the hunters make this conclusion based on their subjective suppose, because they cannot find the dear?
In addition, how many hunters participate the survey is another question. Unless the author can evidence the respondents are representative, we cannot accredit this conclusion.

Furthermore, the author cannot demonstrate the causal relationship between global warming and the decline of deer. It is true that they happen at the same time, but the author does not provide any information to prove their relation. Maybe global warming does not cause arctic area's temperature rise. Maybe global warming cause arctic's temperature dropping. Without accurate number of temperature in arctic, it is hard for us to believe that global warming cause the sea ice melting and the decline of deer.

Last but not least, even though the global warming intrigues melting ice, we cannot see the decline of deer population has the connection with migration pattern. The temperature may change and the deer's active pattern may also change, but the decline of deer population may have other alternatives. Maybe the drop of the number of the deer is because hunters excessive hunting, or maybe the vegetation which the deer eat decrease.

All in all, as what I have mentioned above, the author does not provide enough evidences for us to evaluate. If he/she can give us more information about the reporter, temperature changing in Arctic and the deer migration pattern, it will be better for us to make the evaluation.

smile_annieUID: 2689995

In this argument, the author states that because of global warming, the number of arctic deer is unable to follow their age-old migration pattern through the frozen sea, so as to declining the number of the dear. However, after further consideration of this argument, it has some flaws. I will analyze them one by one as following.

First of all, the information source is not very convincing. According to the author, local hunters report the deer populations declining. Are the respondents representative? The author doesn't provide the information that why the hunters have this conclusion. Perhaps, the hunters make this conclusion based on their subjective suppose, because they cannot find the dear?
In addition, how many hunters participate the survey is another question. Unless the author can evidence the respondents are representative, we cannot accredit this conclusion.

Furthermore, the author cannot demonstrate the causal relationship between global warming and the decline of deer. It is true that they happen at the same time, but the author does not provide any information to prove their relation. Maybe global warming does not cause arctic area's temperature rise. Maybe global warming cause arctic's temperature dropping(這個不是很好). Without accurate （刪掉number of ）temperature in arctic, it is hard for us to believe that global warming cause the sea ice melting and the decline of deer.

Last but not least, even though the global warming intrigues melting ice, we cannot see the decline of deer population has the connection with migration pattern. The temperature may change and the deer's active pattern may also change, but the decline of deer population may have other alternatives. Maybe the drop of the number of the deer is because hunters excessive hunting, or maybe the vegetation which the deer eat decrease.

All in all, as what I have mentioned above, the author does not provide enough evidences for us to evaluate. If he/she can give us more information about the reporter, temperature changing in Arctic and the deer migration pattern, it will be better for us to make the evaluation.
分析挺不錯的。