argument117 （kito小组）谢谢大家了！

智恩UID: 2160717

题目：117 The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they
are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they
were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its
office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this
work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home
office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders,
and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as
paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply
departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

最近一次调查超过70％的回应者报告说他们被要求回家完成的工作量比以前多。由于Valu-Mart在过去并没有发现办公用品部销量的显著上升，我们应该利用这种在家办公的趋势，在所有Valu-Mart商店增加家庭办公机器比如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增加办公用品比如纸笔和钉书机的存货。通过这些变革，我们办公用品部将会成为我们商店中盈利最多的部门
提纲：1 调查有问题；
      2 太快得出会盈利的结论。
This argument cites a survey showing that over 70 percent of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home from the workplace than they were in the past. The author attempts to convince us that increasing the stock of home office machines of Valu-Mart could make the office-supply departments become the most profitable component of their stores with this work-at-home trend. Close scrutiny of this argument, I find this argument is unconvincing for a number of critical flaws.

On the one hand, this argument is based on a survey which is lack of credibility and validity. The author fails to provide statistics that how many people participate in this survey and the occupation, age and gender of the respondents. Moreover, if the size of sample is not representative enough to reflect the characteristics of other residents, the result of this survey is dubious. As we know, many extraneous variables could spoil the survey and so controls are employed to prevent extraneous variables. However the author fails to show that in this process the researchers whether control the influence of all other extraneous variables. Also the attitude of the participants may influence the accuracy of the results. It is entirely possible that the participants just complain about the hectic pace of work. All of these possibilities could undermine the author’s recommendation.

On the other hand, the author commits a hasty generalization that the Valu-Mart will acquire more profits by increasing the stock of office supplies. It is ridiculous to believe that increasing the stock of home offices machines is equal to get profits. Even if the author may provide evidence to support this work-at-home trend, only increasing the stock of office supplies is insufficient to make profits. Other factors, such as quality, price and sort could also affect sales. Referring to the most profitable components, no evidence is offered to guarantee this assumption. It is entirely possible that other departments would try their best to acquire profits. Without considering and ruling out such possibilities the author’s conclusion is untenable as it stands.

To sum up, close scrutiny of the supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lend little credible support to the author’s claim. To make it convincing, the author must provide clearer evidence that whether the need of home office supplies is indeed increasing. Additionally, the author should substantiate the causal relationship between the increasing stock of office-supply and the more profits.

gaojiehahaUID: 2149729

This argument cites a survey showing that over 70 percent of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home from the workplace than they were in the past. The author attempts to convince us that increasing the stock of home office machines of Valu-Mart could make the office-supply departments become the most profitable component of their stores with this work-at-home trend. Close scrutiny of this argument, I find this argument is unconvincing for a number of critical flaws.

On the one hand, this argument is based on a survey which is lack of credibility and validity. The author fails to provide statistics that how many people participate in this survey and the occupation, age and gender of the respondents. Moreover, if the size of sample is not representative enough to reflect the characteristics of other residents, the result of this survey is dubious. As we know, many extraneous variables could spoil the survey and so controls are employed to prevent extraneous variables.(我有个疑问：做统计的时候是应该随机抽取样本啊！不明白智恩在这里想表达什么意思。confused) However the author fails to show that in this process the researchers whether control the influence of all other extraneous variables.(我觉着不是随机变量干扰调查，而是排除其它干扰因素对调查的影响) Also the attitude of the participants may influence the accuracy of the results. It is entirely possible that the participants just complain about the hectic（又学到了一个新单词，嘻嘻～） pace of work. All of these possibilities could undermine the author’s recommendation.

On the other hand, the author commits a hasty generalization that the Valu-Mart will acquire more profits by increasing the stock of office supplies. It is ridiculous to believe that increasing the stock of home offices machines is equal to get profits. Even if the author may provide evidence to support this work-at-home trend, only increasing the stock of office supplies is insufficient to make profits. Other factors, such as quality, price and sort could also affect sales. Referring to the most profitable components, no evidence is offered to guarantee this assumption. It is entirely possible that other departments would try their best to acquire profits. Without considering and ruling out such possibilities the author’s conclusion is untenable as it stands.

To sum up, close scrutiny of the supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lend little credible support to the author’s claim. To make it convincing, the author must provide clearer evidence that whether the need of home office supplies is indeed increasing. Additionally, the author should substantiate the causal relationship between the increasing stock of office-supply and the more profits.

只找出了两个错误。argument感觉比较格式化，不太好改！
我觉得写的还行。不过，要尝试找到新的突破。慢慢写成自己的格式！
你看看我的argument看。我在开头和结尾都小创新了一把，嘻嘻:p
argument117
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=385659
issue36
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=385469

[ Last edited by gaojiehaha on 2005-12-29 at 16:24 ]