- 最后登录
- 2008-11-10
- 在线时间
- 0 小时
- 寄托币
- 296
- 声望
- 0
- 注册时间
- 2007-9-20
- 阅读权限
- 15
- 帖子
- 0
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 177
- UID
- 2402391

- 声望
- 0
- 寄托币
- 296
- 注册时间
- 2007-9-20
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 0
|
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 379 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-4-4 17:46:31
The arguer predicts that the video games which is from Whirlwind will be sold much better in his passage, though the selling condition of that game did not satisfy him in the past two years. He presents a result from a survey and a reason to support his prophecy. But through careful scrutiny, some fatal fallacies can be picked up from the arguer's discussion.
First of all, the arguer failed to mention and to think about the specific details of the survey. How many game players responded the survey and how many of them gave the answer that they like games with lifelike graphics? As we all do not know the answer of the two questions above, we can not prove that most of those game players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics. To imagine extremely, if only a few people, who did not take a big part of all the game players, have responded the survey and gave the surveyor his answer as has been presented by the arguer, the result of the survey will be nill. As the arguer did not mention or even concern about the details of the survey, the result certainly failed to support his conclusion.
Second, the arguer's reason that Whirlwind company has introduced a few games which provide lifelike graphics can not automatically lead to his conclusion. Besides lifelike graphics, there are many other factors that can influence the sales of video games. For example, the thesis, the feeling of controlling, the characters in the game and so on. Without thinking about all these factors, the arguer can not make his final conclusion that those games which are with only those lifelike graphics but other advantages can be sold well in the near future. Obviously, the arguer's reason is too assertive to support his prophecy.
Third, the arguer's reason that the advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old will prompt the sales of those introduced games also can not stand on its ground to support his conclusion. Advertisement, certainly, does not mean everything in an commercial competition. If other game companies can provide better advertisement, who can prove that Whirlwind will definitely win? The advertising is not an decisive reason.
Given the discussion above, the arguer's conclusion is ineffective.
|
|