argument14【决战AW作文小组】第7次作业

jlmjackyUID：2471681

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS:460          TIME: 00:40:00          DATE: 2009/2/6 0:09:32




In this memo the speaker asserts that by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds the Green Thumb Gardening Center(GTGC) can increase its profits in coming spring. To support this point, the speaker cites a survey to improve more consumers are not satisfied with the quality of the fresh vegetables in supermarket, and a sales record of a gardening magazine Great Gardens which has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. However, although th conclusion sounds indeed reasonable, it is based on a uncertainty survey and unsubstantiated assumptions.

First at all, in the beginning of the memo the author says there is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetable. But, in the whole memo, the author does not provide any firm evidences such as data, study, or survey to justify this point. I have strong reason to identify this evidence cannot be compelling. And all of the following assumptions are based on a unreasonable evidence.

Secondly, the author cites a national survey. It displays many people have dissatisfactions with the vegetables in supermarket. In the survey, it  only mentions "many people", not a definitely number, raising me a doubt how many people are not satisfied, whether majority of the consumers or not. In fact, there is no certainly data that most of the residents have accepted this survey and made a bad choice.

Thirdly, the author uses a sales record to prove there are more and more people would like to grow their own vegetables which is a locally gardening magazine last three months sales records. From the memo, I cannot see the real situation of the sell. Many factors can influence the sale and should not be overlooked. Perhaps, this magazine is only published in this area with a little circulation. It is easy to sell out.

In addition, the author assumes that expanding the variety of vegetable could make the profits increase in the coming spring. It is unsubstantiated. Even if the situational in the memo could be founded, it is no immediate evidence to
support it must be increase profits. Maybe in the local, residents loves to make their garden full of flowers and fragrance.

Even assume the local people are more interested in growing their own vegetables in their gardens, expanding the variety of vegetable is not the best and safety method to improve profits. It is possible the residents only like one or two kinds of the vegetables, and the effective  way is to increase the stock of the most popular kinds.

In sum, the author cannot justify this point on the basis of the scant evidence provided in the memo. To bolster this recommendation the author needs to provide more convincing evidence.

jlmjackyUID：2471681

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