[a习作temp] Argu147处女作，求指点，万分感谢 [复制链接]

yunfeiyang4ever
UID：2604917

寄托新兵

Rank: 2

声望: 0
寄托币: 377
注册时间: 2009-2-22
精华: 0
帖子: 3

电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2009-2-22 12:41:18 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

No.147 The following appeared in an editorial in a busniss magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed.The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

In this argument, the author claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically in the next few months in spite of it has declined over two years. To substantiate this conclusion, the author cites that the result of a recent study that players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics and require the most up-to-date computers. In addition, the author provides the evidence that several such games which extensive advertising directed at people 10 to 25 years old have been just introduced by Whirlwind. However, careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals that it lends little credible supporting author's claim, as discussed below.

First of all, the author makes an outright assumption without providing any evidence whatsoever to support that assumption. The author assumes that people between 10 to 25 ages is the age-group most likely to play the video games but gives no reason for such an assumption. Without conducting a recent persuasive survey about ages who always play video games, the author cannot produce any convinced statistics to support his assumption. Since the arguer has not adequately responded to this concern, the author's claim that the increasing sales of the video games is untenable.

Secondly, even assuming that people of 10 to 25 ages is the age-group frequently play video games, there is no evidence presented that the ago-group people must purchase the Whirlwind video games. Although directed a survey for receiving the critical characteristics of video game, people are uncertain to take the video games which they describe. There are countless other factors that people should determine whether purchase this video game or not, such as price, theme and classification. Perhaps people devote to the video game that combines thoughtful with technology wholly. Or perhaps people cannot own suffcient time to play video game whereas spending time on assignment. Without considering and ruling out these and other possible explanations, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the sales will increase dramatically.

Finaly, even assuming that people directed by the survey will take the video game, the argument concludes too hastily. However, it is entirely possible that one or more other factors were instead responsible for the sales, such as demand, supply, economic condition. Perhaps the depression of the economy leads the inflation. Or perhaps competitors also popularize similar games and meanwhile it's price is inexpensive than Whirlwind's. Accordingly, falling to address these possibility weakens the argument.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the argument does not strong support to what the arguer maintained. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would convince me, perhaps by way of a reliable survey, that the key features that people from 10 to 25 is firmly the playing video games' age-group before jumping to the conclusion that sales predict to increase. Furthermore, the arguer must consider and provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of sales number, and must convince me that people who prefer video games of lifelike graphics and require the most up-to-date computers will purchase the Whirlwind's product.

147, argu, 处女作, 指点