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本帖最后由 allenwoo 于 2014-9-9 15:40 编辑
各位不好意思 之前的图片版看不清换上了word版~~
In the argument, the arguer comes up with a recommendation that the Monarch Books should replace the children's book section with a cafe in order to attract more customers and compete with Regal Books better. To bolster his recommendation, he cites the national census which points out the declining population percentage of children under 10. Meanwhile, he claims that the Monarch Books has large customer base because of the wide selection of books, and opening a cafe could expand the customer base. While it seems plausible at first glance, there're several questions remained to be answered before he can make his recommendation reasonable and convincing.
To begin with, the arguer unfairly assumes that the local children percentage is in accordance with that in the national census. Yet, it is unnecessary to be true all the time because the situation could varies greatly from place to place. In light of this, we should ask: what is the exact variations of percentage of children under ten in the local place in recent years. If the percentage of children declines as significantly as that in the national census, for example, at an annual rate approximate to 40 percentage, it is safe to claim the trend is true in the town and the recommendation will be strengthened. Whereas, if the children remains stable or decrease at low rate like 5 percentage, the arguer's assumption is obviously flawed and the recommendation will be undermined.
Further, the argument is based on another assumption that the quality and varieties of coffee in Monarch Books are competitive to the coffee offered in Regal Books. Hence, another question has to be answered is that whether the coffee offered in Monarch Books taste better and has more varieties compared with its competitors including Regal Books? If the Monarch could only offer vapid coffee within a few choices of flavors, the Monarch Books would far from being a competitor to Regal Books in that few people would buy it. What’s more, the great base of customers would spread the bad quality coffee more quickly, in this way, the reputation of Monarch Books would be greatly damaged. If so, the recommendation is not sound. Conversely, if the coffee is of a high quality, the café would not at least bring side effects to Monarch Books. And if a lot of coffee types are offered, it is worth a try to combat with its competitors in selling coffee and the customer base could get expanded. In this way, the recommendation could be supported.
Last but not least important, even if the above questions all turn out to have positive answers, another critical question must addressed is that whether the anticipated profits of the café far outweigh the revenues from children’s book section? While the coffee section seems to provide more benefits than the children’s section, there’s no specific evidence to substantiate it. The construction of café could demands to cover a large amount of extra expenses including the decoration fees, hiring new staff and expensive coffee machines. Meanwhile, some measurements can be done to increase the profits in children’s section such as introducing more profitable audio books to children. If the prospect of café does overshadow the children’s section even if enough measurements are taken, the recommendation could be justifiable effective supported. Otherwise, it is profoundly unfair to (replace the children’s section with a café) follow the recommendation since the revenues will not change significantly.
Overall, the arguer fails to address the above questions regarding to the local trend of children percentage, the quality and flavor of coffee offered and the prospect of cafe profits compared with children’s section. In order to reach a cogent and convincing recommendation, the arguer must provide evidences to answer the above questions and support his proposal.
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