A78 一周之后考试 还是处女作 有很多问题 求指教!

mynameisamoUID: 3175375

A78
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food distribution company with food storage warehouses in several cities.

"Recently, we signed a contract with the Fly-Away Pest Control Company to provide pest control services at our warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest Control Company, which we have used for many years in Palm City, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. This difference in pest damage is best explained by the negligence of Fly-Away."

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

mynameisamoUID: 3175375

各位大侠拜托了啊……帮忙看看吧……

mynameisamoUID: 3175375

球球各位前辈了！！！

mynameisamoUID: 3175375

想问一下大神们：

这个argument我只找到两个逻辑可以攻击的点，是不是太少了？

以上每个攻击点都找到了2个以上的反例，可以弥补攻击点这个问题么？

总而言之，评分是以反例多少为主还是攻击点的数目为主呀？

多谢各位前辈了！！

mynameisamoUID: 3175375

This argument seems reasonable at first glance, but actually it's not cogent because it fallaciously assumes that the stated correlation implies causation, which is not necessarily the case. The author explain the bigger damage in warehouse that is signed with Fly-Away house with its negligence.

To begin with, the author alleged that warehouse signed cotrast with Buzzoff Company in Wintervale lost $10,000 worth of food while $20,000 worth of food stored in Palm City that was signed with Fly-Awaly house had been destroyed by the damage. The author falsely explains it with the thought that Buzzoff Company is better than Fly-Away Company in keeyping food from being damaged by pest. The alternative explanation, however, can be that it is extremely cold in Wintervale and seldom people can tolerate the weather, resulting from the fact that there are few pest can survive in such weather. While it is so hot in Palm City that various pests regard it as an desirable place to stay, which leads to the severe damage in Palm City than in Wintervale. It is also likely that there are up to $200,000 worth of food in the warehouse that is signed with Fly-Away Company and only $10,000 worth of food stored in the warehouse signed with Buzzoff Company. Another possible explanation is that food stord in the warehouse taken care of by Fly-Away is far more precious than that of Buzzoff company that the $20,000 worth of food stored in the warehouse of Fly-Away is merely of half amount of food as the amount of the $10,000 worth of food stored in that of Buzzoff.

To expand, the passage claimed that the difference in the amout of damaged food  in the two warehouses reveals the negligence of Fly-Away. It draws the conclusion with the assumption that what happened in the past one month can represent what will happen in the future. Chances are high that after the senior manager in Fly-Away company is informed of the fact that the damage caused by his company is in sharp contrast to that of the competitor, Buzzoff Company, he will be determined to deal with it, which will leads to the improvement of Fly-Away company. While the senior manager in Buzzoff will be satisfied with the damage and the quality of Buzzoff will decline. What I mentioned, in other words, is alternative explanations that shows that the author cannot assume what happened in the past is the same as what will happen in the future.

Thus, although the damage caused in the warehouse signed with Fly-Away Company is more serious than that of Buzzoff Company, this reality alone does not exclusively suggest that Fly-Away Company can be described as negligence, as the alternative explanations mentioned.