1006G emteddybear的备考日记——想法太多而不去实施等于没有想法

emteddybearUID: 2699606

15.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=900005&highlight
argument169 【FF小组】 by duyuan3377 第二次限时模考

TOPIC: ARGUMENT169 - The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University. "Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers." 首先对比地点：bronston 大学：小城镇，配偶在一个地方就职——>过得更开心（这是所有关于皮尔斯大学做出决定的前提） 皮尔斯大学：小城镇， 雇佣到优秀的员工+鼓舞士气<——也应该提供职位给新员工的配偶 理由：虽然这些职位可能不是所有的都那么理想，但是只要给他们提供一个机会，他们就更愿意接受我们的offers WORDS: 421         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-12-7 16:38:55 In the argument, the arguer recommends that we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire in order to attract the most gifted teachers and researches and improve the morale of our entire staff. The argument is mainly based on some studies conducted by Bronston College. Although the recommendation sounds indeed reasonable at first sight, a series of logical flaws may undermine the argument. The threshold problem of this argument is that the studies conducted by Bronston College might not be reliable despite of the similar location.  The information about the studies is too vague. Neither does the arguer provide information concerning the process of these studies, nor does the arguer offer any evidence that these studies are reliable. Without enough evidence about the study, it is impossible to assess the validity and reliability of these studies.批判材料的有效性，我觉得还是缺乏一些具体的东西，比较空 In addition, whether the spouse's job offer is the main factor influencing the most largely on the most gifted teachers and researches is questionable. The arguer unfairly assumes that the spouse's job offer is an attractive condition for most gifted teachers and researchers and that it is difficult for their spouses to find proper jobs. However, there is no guarantee that this is the case, nor does the arguer provide any evidence to substantiate the assumptions. It is highly possible that the most gifted teachers and researches focus more on the scientific environment and the level of their fellows instead of their spouse's job. Besides, their spouses might also be capable enough to find a better job in companies or government rather than Pierce University. Without proving the assumptions, the arguer cannot convince me to accept his/her recommendation.配偶不一定要接受他安排的工作 Last but not least, the arguer groundlessly assumes that this recommendation would be effective to improve morale of our entire staff. As the arguer mentions, the offer is only for each new faculty member we hire. If so, the old faculty member might feel it is not fair for them and their spouses. As a result, even though the method is able to attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers, it undermines the morale of our old staff.题目中确实没有直接的证明鼓舞士气的问题，我觉得这个分析得比较好，确实这样的做法是影响士气，而不是鼓舞士气 In sum, the argument lack credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to prove the reliability of these studies and revise the recommendation in order to fulfill its function of improving the morale of our entire staff. 另外想到一点就是对于本文的大前提，布鲁斯大学的教师过得幸福可能与配偶在不在一个地方没有多大关系，也许是因为布鲁斯那个地方本来就是一个好地方，可能比较适合生活。我觉得这点可以加在body1里面

emteddybearUID: 2699606

16.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=897984&highlight
argument188【FF小组】 by duyuan3377 第一篇限时模考的argu，限时基本成功

TOPIC: ARGUMENT188 - A new report suggests that men and women experience pain very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications. When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids-a painkiller-to 28 men and 20 women who were having their wisdom teeth extracted, the women reported feeling much less pain than the men, and the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women. This research suggests that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. In addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. 拔牙20女比28男感觉疼痛少一些，以及舒缓疼痛持续时间长一些使用X药(相同剂量)——>1.x药适合女，不适合男 2.应该给另外一种药给男士 3.所有的药效都应该被重新鉴定 另外我还有个疑问，从后面的分析来看，我列出的1，2，3是结论，但是题目的第一句话到底属于什么呢。现在我给自己的解释是第一句话是题目的TS，后面的都是他的具体描述，不晓得对不对 WORDS: 424          TIME: 00:28:34          DATE: 2008-12-1 15:54:44 In the argument, the arguer draw a conclusion that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. Besides, the arguer also suggests that researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women. The argument is mainly based on a research about 28 men and 20 women having their wisdom teeth extracted. However, although the conclusion sounds indeed reasonable at first thought, several logical flaws may seriously undermine this argument.咋个每个人的开头都是这样，囧 First of all, the arguer commits a fallacy of "hasty generalization". Firstly, the research only tests one kind of painkiller-- kappa opioids without testing other kinds of painkiller's effect我觉得这个地方有点问题，题目最后一句说了要对所有的药品进行重新评估，那为什么还有说any other 呢. Based on a specific example, it is logically unsounded to make suggestion for all medications. It is very possible that other kind of medications might be completely different from kappa opioids, they might have the same effect on men and women, or might be more effective on men than women. Secondly, the result of the research is limitedly based on one kind of situation--extracting the wisdom teeth. It is likely that this situation is not typical in general and in other cases kappa opioids might have the same effect on men and women. In fact, in the face of such limited evidence, it is fallacious to draw any conclusion at all.  还是由于那个最后一句话，我觉得这一段应该再仔细讨论讨论 Moreover, the research cited by the arguer is too vague to be informative. The number of the subjects, 28 men and 20 women, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusion. Also, the sample might be unrepresentative of the most people. It is possible that the women in the group are more health than the men. Without better evidence that the research is statistically reliable, the arguer cannot convince me to accept his conclusion.这段比较平庸，不是所有的问题都是采样基数的问题，不过确实存在健康状况的问题，但是我觉得还存在呵呵年龄段的问题 Last but not least, the arguer assumes that kappa opioids are more effective to women than men, according to the evidence that the women reported felling much less pain than the men. But it is not sufficient to substantiate the assumption. It is entirely possible that the women might own more powerful ability to stand the pain or the men might express the pain openly. 也许确实存在这个问题 To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to do more scientific and substantial research. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the reference of other medications. 其实我觉得这篇文章确实谈论到一些问题，除了第一段我确实需要找人讨论讨论外，第二三段我觉得都比较浅显。另外我觉得主要的问题，还是对于我列出的结论 如结论1、她说whenever这个就太夸大了，还有不同年龄段的女性，等等 2、就算女士用的效果比男的好，也不一定非要换药啊，万一这种药的药效其实已经足够好了呢，或者对于男士来说，这已经是最好的药了呢 3。这个所有的药都要重新界定，目前还没有看出什么问题

emteddybearUID: 2699606

17.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=890901&highlight
argument80~限时完成~还有三天考试~给点建设性意见~斑竹空的话帮忙拍拍~

TOPIC: ARGUMENT80 - The following appeared as an editorial in a health magazine. "Clormium 5 is an odorless, tasteless, and generally harmless industrial by-product that can enter the water supply. A preliminary study has linked cooking with water containing clormium 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin rashes. Tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of clormium 5. Although it is possible to remove clormium 5 from water, the costs of routine testing and purification are higher than many communities can afford. Therefore, in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers." 报告：含有C5的沸水和过敏症增加有关系 tests:一些地方的饮用水含有C5 报告+tests——>公共场所（不能rid c5）要取消饮水机而换成瓶装水冷却器 WORDS: 397          TIME: 00:28:25          DATE: 2008-11-6 19:56:41 Before the implementation the recommendation in the argument above, there are several evidence which need to be reexamined in some other aspects, as discussed below. To begin with, the result of study is open to doubt. Firstly, the argument above provide no detail or information concerning how many people participate the study and how they are selected. Common sense tells us that the smaller the sample size is, the less reliable and credible the result of study will be. Perhaps, only 100 people participate the study, if this is the case, this small sample size is insufficient and imprecise to draw any conclusion. Also due to lacking of information concerning how people are selected to participate the study, we cannot conclude whether the result of study is representative enough. Secondly, the study overlooks other factors which can lead to allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, due to eating some unclean food, some of the participants get allergies and skin rashes. If this is the case, the conclusion renders its incredibility due to ignore other factors which can lead the same symptoms, such as skin rashes.这段话批的是那个报告的有效性，但是我觉得开始阶段还是要有个介绍，直接说错误，让人摸不着头脑，感觉就像是从其他地方抄过来的 In addition, even if the result of the study is substantiated, it does not follow that presence of clormium 5 这个让步有点问题，没有说清楚，但是按照这个字面意思应该是说body1说的是是水引起了人们的过敏，然后这一段就说即使是水引起了过敏也不一定和C5有关系will definitely cause allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, the amount of clormium 5 in the drinking water is little so that it is insufficient to cause people sick. Perhaps, some other materials exist in the drinking water too, which prohibit the effect of clormium 5 to cause people sick. Without ruling out all these possibilities above, the conclusion of argument is groundless to me. Last not the least, even if the foregoing assumptions are all substantiated, it does not follow that replacing drinking fountains in public buildings with bottled-water coolers will be the best solution. The argument overlooks other methods to deal with drinking water containing clormium 5, which maybe more economical and effective. Perhaps, adding some medicines into the water can offset the effects of clormium 5. Further, the argument does not provide any information concerning bottled-water. Perhaps, these bottled-water still contains clormium 5. In this sense, the recommendation amounts to nothing.这一点还可以 In conclusion, the argument above fails to convince me. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide more detail about the preliminary study above and other methods which can be used for dealing with the drink water containing clormium 5. 看了后面的批改，觉得自己有些地方还是没有想到，还有关于调查，下面的说法总结得很好： （一般说到调查，一个是样本数够不够，一个是调查对象有没有个体差异性，一个是调查手法可不可靠，这些一般都是没有提到的，你可以固定的根据这几个方面批。然后最后一般递进到即使调查可靠的情况下，会不会受到其他因素影响~然后列他因，我觉得这个是比较完整的) 我觉得这个题目里面就确实存在，初步的研究除了上面的问题外，还不具有科学性，这点应该提出来

emteddybearUID: 2699606

18.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=886725&highlight



argument15, 终于限时完整了

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors. "Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company." 现象：1.80%控告指出要求减少他们对食物中脂肪和胆固醇的摄入量 2.许多商店都买低脂商品 一个推理过程： 现在许多由Old Dairy Industries 推出的食品含很高的脂肪和胆固醇——>销量下降+利润下降——>建议该公司持股人卖掉他的股份+其他的投资者也不要再买这个公司的股票 WORDS: 550         TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2008/10/21 In this argument, the author claims that Old Dairy company is not worthy for investors, because many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, which make people regard them as unhealthy foods这个问题题目中好像没有说. Yet, just based on the cursory survey and unsubstantiated assumptions, the argument is far away to be convincing. First of all, the reliability and generalizability of the survey is open to question. In this survey, 80 percent of the respondents want to reduce the intake of fats and cholesterol. However, the 80 percentage could be significant if the overall number of respondents is 10 million, while it could be meaningless if there are only 10 respondents in the survey. What is more, the backgrounds and health conditions of these respondents are also important. If the 80 percent respondents all suffer from obesity, heart diseases or diabetes, the result of the survey cannot represent the attitude of most healthy people. In addition, the location of the survey is kept unknown as well. Common sense informs us that in developed regions where overweight lists as one of the top health problems, people may highly concern about low-fat diets. While in some poverty region, the high-fat product might be more popular. If Old Dairy's markets mainly locate in the poverty regions other than developed regions, the influence of high-fat foods might be little. In a word, without detailed information of the respondents in the survey, the author can hardly draw to the conclusion that most people would refuse to choose Old Dairy's high-fat foods.论述得很充分 Secondly, the fact that low-fact foods abound in many stores lends little support to the conclusion. For one thing, there are many low-fact foods does not mean that high-fat foods are losing their customers. It is entirely possible that the overall sale of low-fat foods is lower than high-fat foods. Some high-fat foods, such as butter, are dispensible to many families. Also, the higher cost for producing low-fat foods may prevent them gaining high profits.  For another, the author does not cite whether the low-fat foods are competitors toward Old Dairy's products. If most of the low-fat foods are bread and soft-drink, while Old Dairy focus on ice-cream, the low-fat products can hardly threaten Old Dairy's sales. Finally, granted the high-fat foods would influence Old Dairy's profit, it is still presumptuous to judge that Old Dairy's stock are not worthy for investing. On the one hand, according to the reputation of Old Dairy, it might still occupy a large market. After all, the price and taste of food are also play vital roles during the selling. Even though many of Old Dairy's products are not healthy, people may still love them. Furthermore, although many products of Old Dairy are high in fat and cholesterol, it does not preclude that Old Dairy also produce many healthy foods which are low in the two ingredients. Perhaps the healthy foods could guarantee Old Dairy’s high profit.  On the other hand, even if the price of Old Dairy's stock is declining题目里面好像没有说到这个公司的股票下降了, it may not the best chance to sell the stocks. If Old Dairy has already realized the problem and has made efforts to develop new healthy foods, Old Dairy's stock would have a high potential to increase. Considering the possible rise of price, it might be a wise investment to buy Old Dairy’s stocks, let alone keep them. To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. It can be improved by considering the recent sales of Old Dairy’s products and the price movements of its stock. After all, the evaluation of the profitability of an investment needs comprehensive market surveys and long-term perspectives. 一共写了三个点，每一个点都分析得很好

emteddybearUID: 2699606

19.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=885971&highlight
Argument1,球拍(限时没有完成，拖延五分钟)

TOPIC: ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products. "Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age." 经验：这个店在注重健康的居民区效益最好——>结论：在Plainsville建一个新店 原因：1.P的商人说跑鞋和运动服一直销量很好 2.当地健康俱乐部5年前由于没有生意而关门，现在都已经有更多的顾客了，减肥训练和有氧运动课经常是满的 3.学生要求参加健身训练 推理过程：原因3——>推论1.可以发展潜在客户 原因1，2——>推论2.P处的人很注重健康的生活方式 推论1+推论2——>结论 提纲：1.跑鞋和运动服卖得好不一定说明他们注重健康的生活方式啊，有可能这只是当时的一种时尚而已 2，对于原因2，那个此时的客户最多，到底多多少，在人口数量的多少不知道；还有那两个班人员满了，也许只是小班，本来收的学员就比较少嘛 3.原因1+原因2就算成立也不能说明他们的注重健康的生活方式，最多只能说明他们爱运动，注重健康不光是运动，还有很多方面，如饮食等，而这个店主要卖健康食品等，似乎和运动可能没有多大关系 4原因3也不能说明他们是潜在客户，也许他们只是被强迫做这些运动的，和这个店一点关系都没有 While it is true that the facts presents above contribute to the idea that the residents in Plainsville concern about leading a healthy life, it can hardly be concluded from the facts that Nature's way company should build its new store in Plainsville.这句话的意思没对呢 In the first place, people in Plainsville may in the favor of wearing comfortable clothes during their leisure time since the suits and leather shoes are much too formal in their spare times. Therefore, it will not be surprising that the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are all-time highs. Moreover, perhaps Plainsville is a location which contains kinds of stadiums, in which various of sports are made everyday. So surely the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing will be high due to the enormous population taking exercise there. Thus, the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all time highs can not provide enough evidence that the residents in Plainsville are in favor of leading healthy lives as well as health food. Second, there are many possible alternatives ignored ,which can also greatly influence the health pub’s business. Perhaps the former management faculty of that club failed in increasing the pub’s attractiveness, which includes the quality of service, the infrastructure of the pub and etc, therefore, even people who like exercise would not like to attend the pub. So when the problems mensioned are solved properly, it is quite possible that the pub has more members than ever. Thus, there is no clear causal relationship between the increase of pub members and the increase of people who are interested in leading healthy lives.我觉得这一点还应该在深入一些，他只说到为什么俱乐部的人数会增加，但是和本题相关的只有一句，没有直接关系的具体体现还是没有说 Finally, not all the next generations are participating the “fitness for future” program willingly. Given that people always reject compulsory things, the products of Nature’s way may be rejected subconsciously by the ones who attend the program nilly-willy. Even if all of the future generations participate the program actively, there are obviously differences between regular exercise and health food. It is highly possible that a man who is interested in basketball likes Coca-cola and hamburgers desperately. Thus, it is unwarranted that the next generation who participate the “fitness for life” program is surely the potential customers of the company. To sum up, the argument is not sound as it stands. To make it logically acceptable, the author has to provide more clear evidence that there are causal relationships between the high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing and the concern of leading healthy lives. To make it more convincing, the author also has to prove that people who participate in 'fitness for life' program would also be interested in health food.

emteddybearUID: 2699606

20.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=883504&highlight
TOPIC: ARGUMENT137 - The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.
"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."
WORDS: 554          TIME: 0:30:00          DATE: 2008/10/9
现象：虽然研究表明居民们把水上运动归类为最喜欢的运动，但是从来不用在M河边进行娱乐活动
原因1.有关于河水质量的抱怨——>推论1.居民远离河流是因为他们觉得河水不够干净
假设：原因2.政府决定清理河流——>推论2.河里的娱乐活动会增加
因为假设——>结论：需要增加预算去改善M河边的公共陆地
In this argument, the author claims that the Mason City need to improve the publicly owned lands along the Mason River, because after the river is cleaned up, more and more people will use the river for recreational activities. Close scrutiny shows that the evidences lend little support to the conclusion.

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the residents of Mason City need to use Mason River for recreation.（这一点我没有想到，其实他是隐含了说居民需要这个河流进行娱乐活动的） In this argument, the author cites that residents of Mason City are fond of water sports. If it is true, there must be many good places in Mason City for swimming, fishing, and boating. The gyms in this city must all have swimming pools because swimming is popular. There maybe several parks in the city where people can go for fishing or boating. If not, how can the residents consistently rank water sports as their favorite? For that matter, people will not eager to use Mason River as another place for water sports. Therefore, it is not necessary to improve the public lands along the river.

What is more, the author fails to consider other possible reasons for the seldom using of Mason River. No evidence shows that the quality of the water is the most important reason which prevent people to use Mason River for recreation. It is entirely possible that Mason River is too terrantial to be used for swimming or boating regardless how clean the water it is. Or perhaps there is a chemical factory nearby the river so that eating fish in the river is not healthy. The location of Mason River is also important, is it near the residential area? Without ruling out other possible reasons, the author can not convince me that residents will go to Mason River for recreation after the water is cleaned up.
我觉得这两段可能要说的意思是一样的，就是说居民没有不用河流作为活动场地与他干净不干净无关

The author also unfairly assumes that the Mason River will be definitely cleaned up. Although the agency has announced plans to clean up Mason River, it can not guarantee that the plans will be effective. Announcement is one thing, operation the cleaning plan is anoher thing. No evidence shows that the agency is responsible enough. If the agency is responsible and efficient, why there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river? If they keep the quality of the water well, there would be no need to clean up it. It would be better to disscuss the budget after the river is truely cleaned up.

Even if we accept all the assumptions, it does not necessarily means the Mason City council need to add budget for improvements to the public lands along the river. Nothing is mentioned the condition of the public lands, and we can not conclude that the lands can not meet residents needs. Does people need to use the public lands when they do water sports? In addtion, increasing budget will add the tax of residents, does that worth the cost? 上次看到说文中采用提问的方式，好像还是要回答的吧，这里差一点点

To sum up, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To substantiate it, the author need to do some detailed suverys about why people seldom use Mason River for water sports, and cite more evidence show that the agency will clean up the river. Furthermore, more datas are needed in order to bolster the plan for improving the public lands along the river.

emteddybearUID: 2699606

21.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=878125&highlight
TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
引言：一个新型的方法能够显著减少学校和工作地点的出勤率
study：鱼消费量大的地方,每年只需要一次或者两次感冒治疗
study——>吃客观数量的鱼能够减少感冒
感冒是最常出现缺席的原因——>结论：建议每天使用Ichthaid（鱼油提炼而成）
其中还有隐含推论：Ichthaid鱼油提炼而成——>具有和鱼一样的功能（治感冒）

提纲：1.批判这个study：鱼的消费和感冒的关系
2.没有足够证据说感冒就是缺席的主要原因
3.即使承认了鱼能治感冒，也不能说明鱼油提取物具有这样的功能，同时也没有说一定要天天吃啊

WORDS: 506          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-9-15 20:52:58

The author suggests that in order to prevent colds and reduce the rate of absenteeism we should recommend the daily use of lchthaid, which is derived from fish oil. It may seems reasonable on the surface, however, with further scrutiny, I find several faults in this argument.
First of all, the author unfairly associates the high consumption of fish to the low rate of visit to the doctor as result of colds. It is entirely possible that the people in EM are all in good health； accordingly, they seldom catch colds. Or perhaps the doctors' fees are so high in EM that few people can afford to visit doctors when they catch colds. 我觉得这里应该加一句只有在感冒非常非常严重才能去看病Even assuming the people in EM seldom catch colds, the author also fails to indicate if there are other healthy foods or life-styles of residents in EM accounting for their good health. Without providing sufficient information of the health conditions of residents in EM, the author cannot make me believe high fish consumption contributes to the reducing of colds.
Secondly, the author assumes that those who are absent from school and work are really because of colds. As we know, some of the absenteeism are is just the result of laziness instead of catching colds, which is just an excuse for their absenteeism. Or perhaps workers and students have some personal reasons which they don't like to make them public. Unless the author could ensure actual cold rates in the whole absenteeism, it is unwarranted for him to reach this conclusion. Additionally, the author doesn't indicate that it is sufficient to reduce absenteeism through the declination of colds.
Thirdly, even assuming that high consumption of fish could reducing colds and the colds are the main factor contributing to the absenteeism, the author also fails to indicate that lchthaid is the useful ingredient of the fish which contributing to the declination of the rate of colds. Without the results of some scientific experiment, the author cannot make it clear that it is lchthaid or other ingredients in fish that play an important role in reducing colds. The less important the lchthaid is , the less convincableconvincible of the author's claim about the function of lchthaid.还可以在深入一点
Finally, the author also overlooks other solutions to reduce the rate of absenteeism. For the purpose of decreasing absenteeism, the factories could make the job more profitable and schools could make the study more attractive to students. To build up the body of workers and students, it is also alternative for the government to subsidize some public exercise facilities and promote citizens to exercise frequently. 这段话提出了一些建议，我觉得好像有点画蛇添足，很明显题目是一篇广告性质的文章，作者的目的是希望我们能去买那个营养品。而且他也说了as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism，又没有说只有这一种办法，所以这段话不能要吧
All in all, this argument does have some merits but is not flawless. For the purpose of better supporting his suggestion, the author needs to provide sufficient information to indicate the it is the high fish consumption contributing to the low rates of colds and in-depth investigation about why workers and students are absent. To better convine me, the author also needs to conduct some experiments to illustrate that lchthaid is the useful ingredients of fish.

emteddybearUID: 2699606

22.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=863955&highlight
argument17，第一次限时写，球拍,谢谢！（已修正简单语法错误）TOPIC: ARGUMENT17 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."
结论：采用ABC，不用EZ（用了10年）
arguer认为council的理由：EZ涨价，从$2K-2.5K/月 ABC$2K/月
arguer理由：1.ez一周两次，abc一周一次
                  2.abc现在只有20trucks，但是ez在这基础上准备增加
                  3.80%调查显示他们满意EZ的服务
提纲：1.arguer认为的理由不一定是council真正的理由，也许council他们认为钱不是问题，或者认为abc采用了先进技术更加环保，等等
         2.换公司是因为受理费的问题，对于理由1，也许本来就只需要一周一次就够了，垃圾一周收几次对于社区来说都不是问题，只要可以保证干净就对了
         3.有多少辆卡车应该和社区无关，只要你把垃圾收干净了，管你们有多少辆卡车，再说我怎么知道你的卡车和我的垃圾有关系啊，再说万一ABC的卡车更先进，更环保之类的呢
         4.80%的调查，又是一个调查问题，80%的调查时关于什么的，你是在哪里调查的，另外20%不满意是因为什么，万一ABC更科学的调查的满意度是100%呢

By citing that EZ ,which will have more trucks than ABC, collects trash twice per week more than ABC' once and 80 percent of the respondents claimed they were satisfied with EZ, the author wants to convince us that Walnut Grove(WG) town should continue using EZ as their trash disposer. However, after taking a thoroughly examination, the argument is weakened in several points.     On the whole, the author implies us that EZ's performance merits the 500 dollar's surcharge. This is what the entire argument is based on. Yet ,being lacking in more detailed information, the assumption or implication is soundless.The author implies us that if ABC is to collect twice per week,ABC will charge $4000 while EZ 'only' charges $2500.So ,EZ is obviously deserved to choose.However,the arguer fails to provide the details about the 2 company's service. It’s quite possible that ABC uses a more advanced and environmentally harmless technique to deal with the trash while EZ just burn or bury it. Thus considering the saved expenditure in environmental protection, ABC may be a much smarter choice.So, without supplying more details about the 2 company's services, the assumption is groundless.      Secondly, ignoring other possible alternatives, the author simply equates more trucks with better performance. Yet no evidence has shown that EZ will use these additionally ordered trucks to improve its performance in WG.Further more, it’s equally possible that these trucks will be used to expand EZ's service to other towns or cities. If that's the case, these trucks are meaningless to WG.Also, if 20 trucks are enough for the collection in WG, there’s no reason to claim more trucks will have better performance than ABC. Without ruling out these possibilitis, the claim is weakened.      Finally, the survey results actually contribute little in proving EZ is a better choice even when EZ charges 500 dollars more这里又说到了钱的问题，我觉得把一个问题在一个地方说清楚就行了，不要相互交叉，这样会减弱说服力. Even though 80% respondents feel satisfied with EZ, we still can't say EZ will do better than ABC .For 10 years, people in WG have already been used to EZ being their trash disposer.To take a step further, they actually have no idea about whether other company's performance will be better or not. Maybe when WG choose ABC, more respondents will admit they are satisfied. Even if ABC has fewer supporters, is EZ’s performance worthy of the extra $500 ? It still needs to be evaluated statistically. So, the mere fact that the survey provides does nothing in bolstering the argument. For the reasons above,the argument is not strongly surpported.In order to convince us WG town should continue using EZ, the author should provide more details and statistics for us to evaluate the claim all-sidedly.

emteddybearUID: 2699606

23.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=818370&highlight

TOPIC: ARGUMENT101 - The following appearedin a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals.

"In a recent study, subjects who ate soy beans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers."
WORDS: 409          TIME: 00:29:13          DATE: 2008-3-27 22:05:21
近期研究：一周至少吃5次大豆的人明显比不吃大豆的人胆固醇更低
近期研究——>在产品中增加大豆蛋白质可以吸引更多关心自己健康的客户——>我们的销量会增加——>增加收益+使客户更健康
提纲：
1.这个研究是否可信
2.近期研究也不一定能够吸引客户，万一这个研究没有被人们所接受呢，或者人们不知道这个结果呢
3.即使开始吸引到了客户，但是这个产品本身问题也不一定会增加销量，万一是味道不好或者其他原因呢
4.没有证据证明说这个产品会增加收益，万一成本很高，但是由于市场问题，同类产品的价格问题也有可能其实收益并不是很高，同样万一这个产品虽然添加了大豆蛋白质，但是由于加工问题，改变了本身的营养结构，也不能使客户更健康啊
In this memo, the president suggests that in order to increase the profits of company and improve the health of customers, it is necessary to fortify WO cereal with soy protein. At first glance, president's suggestion seems appealing; however close scrutiny reveals that there are some logical fallacies in the memo that undermines its credibility.

The threshold problem with this memo liesin that author fails to provide detailed information  about the study such as the total number of subjects in the study. Lacking this information makes his conclusion becomeless statistical reliable. 太空了嘛，基本没有展开

Even if the study is statistical reliable,the president's suggestion still seems unsound for the simple reason he fails to offer direct evidence that the soy beas is low in cholesterol. Thus, it is entirely other issues such as less eating eggs and red meat that contribute the low in cholesterol. Without ruling out this possibility, author cannot convince me that eating soy beans would lower cholesterol.其实还是说的是那个study，但是只有一句话是实质的东西，其他都是空话

Even if the soy beans do have the function of reducing cholesterol level, it has no indication that consumers would prefer company's product that mixes it with WO cereal. Perhaps such mixing would result the taste of the product become so bad consumers even those who are most concerned about health are not able to accept its taste. If this is the case,such product will become complete failure in the market. Therefore, failing to accounting this possibility, author cannot make his claim that the product will be appealing to consumers who are concerned their health persuasive.

Finally, even if such product can be accepted by consumers, author's conclusion that it is capable of increasing company's profits is still logical unsound. A common sense informs that the profit of certain product is dependent on its cost and sales. Although this product could gain a good sale in market, its cost is also rising since some soy protein is added to the product.And the president fails to exclude the possibility that the increase in cost reaches such a high level that undermines its profits. It this is the truth,president's suggestion become completely unwarranted.

In sum, this argument is not well-supportedas it stands. To bolster it , president should offer concrete evidence that theproduct that mixes cereal and soy protein will be good for consumers' health,and this product will be accepted by consumers. Moreover, company should carryout a survey among potential consumers before they make such a decision.
我觉得和我列的提纲大概意思有点像，但是还是基本都没有怎么展开证明，说大话空话比较多

emteddybearUID: 2699606

25.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=809159&highlight
ARGUMENT46 - Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears-often similar in color, but much larger-were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.
引言：在加拿大东部黑熊很普遍，但是灰熊一直认为只存在过西部，一个探险家的记录
研究：INNU有两种关于不同种类的熊的语言，祖先传说有两种不同种类的熊
研究——>灰熊在L存在过+探险家的记录是准确的描述了这种熊
提纲：1。有两种不同的语言又不能说明他说的就是黑熊和灰熊
2.祖先描述有两种不同的熊的特征也不能说就是黑熊和灰熊（1.2可以合并）
3.就算研究是对的也不能说明灰熊就在L生存过，万一是别的地方跑去的呢，或者环游世界的人在其他地方看到之后，回国把这个信息带到本土来，因为产生了关于灰熊的信息
4.研究似乎和探险家的信息没有直接的关系，更不能说明他准确的描述了灰熊
The arguer drew two conclusions above. First, there may be grizzly bears in Labrador. Second, the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear. The reason he provided is that there are two different kinds of bears in the Innu language and the Innu ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. There are logical errors in the arguer's deducing, which makes his assertions are unreliable.还是描述题目性的开头

For one thing, the main reason the arguer brought forward are the language and legends. The problem is that whether the research of language is useful, or can there be any misunderstanding to the language. Because we don't know whether or not the language research was made by authorities or some one not so professional这句话对不对哦, we can not firm rely on this search result. Maybe there are some words’ meaning just like grizzly bear, or the description of some other kinds of bears which is similar to grizzly lead the arguer mistaken it as grizzly bears题目没有说研究出来的就是灰熊，只是说了有两种熊. The legends are neither can be used as evidence. That is only something without evidences support. The arguer seemed to deduce a conclusion with things need warranted, made a serious logical mistake.

Even though there may be grizzly lived in Labrador, no evidence show that the explorer's account is true, let alone to accurately identify the bear. For one thing need to be investigated is whether he really startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear? We must make sure that there were not other reasons that may him to tell a lie. For another, is the report reliable? For it was happened in nineteenth-century我觉得这个时间可能不是问题的关键, there may be some mistakes in the report which is not so accurate as our contemporary. Another case may be that the explorer had mistaken a bear just be like to the grizzly bear as the grizzly bear.

From analyzed above, we can see that the arguer’s assertions are not persuasive. He should offer more statistic evidence or study reports to give sufficient support to his conclusion, such as studies of the number of grizzly bears or researches did by authorities.
这篇论述可能不是太好

emteddybearUID: 2699606

26.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=806595&highlight
TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
WORDS: 448          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-2-28 16:08:20

In this argument , the author advises that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. To substantiate his point, he cites a study consists of two group of people, the people who are given antibiotics recover more quick than other group. At first glance ,this argument seems reasonable, but further inspection shows it suffers from many logical flaws.模板化
   
First and foremost, the study cited in the argument is lack of credibility. Firstly,
the study provides insufficient information about two group people's age , sex and physical condition. Without these information, we may think that the first group is consist of people who are young and more healthier than the those in second group. On the contrary, the people in second group may be some old people who have a poor health condition and recovery speed. In this case, the study is invalid to make a comparison. Secondly, the doctor in the two groups are different. Common sense tells us  that the doctor specialized in sports medicine will do better in curing the muscle strain compared with a general physician. Therefore, there is a high possibility that the first group's shorter recuperation time is result form the doctor's better treatment in first group not the function of antibiotics.  

Second, the arguer provides no information of the function of sugar pills in the treatment of second group. It's entirely possible that the sugar pill will do some harm in people's recovery. Maybe it is the sugar pill that causes the second group people recuperating slower than group one.这个好像不太可能吧 Without ruling out this possibility, the arguer can not convince me that the antibiotics will reduce people's recuperation time.  

Even if antibiotics could reduce patients' recuperation time, the arguer unfairly assume that all patients must take antibiotics as part of their treatment. Firstly, the arguer provide no evidence that patients who suffered from muscle strain is likely to get secondary infections. There is a good chance that这个是有一个很好的机会的意思吗？most of patients suffered from muscle strain don't get secondary infections, therefore using antibiotics will have little effects. Secondly, the side-effect of antibiotics should also be take into patients' consideration. If the antibiotics have many side effects such as damaging one's immune system, nausea, vomiting, choosing use antibiotics only to reduce recuperation time is not a wise decision.  

To sum up, this argument relies on an doubtful study, which renders it unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it , the arguer should provide more details of the function of sugar pill and consider the doctor's effect in the comparison. To better improve it, the arguer should also investigate whether the antibiotics have some side effects.
第一段写得还可以，第二段我觉得好像不太可能，第三段说得有点别扭，但意思还是有的

emteddybearUID: 2699606

27.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=806542&highlight
题目：ARGUMENT150 - The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."
开篇结论：全球两栖动物的数量减少说明地球的水和空气的污染
公园的两个研究证明开篇结论
理由：1.1915，公园里，7种，每一种数量很多；1992，只有四种存货，每一种都严重减少
他因：1920年引进鳄鱼（要吃两栖动物的蛋）
字数：390          用时：0:30:00          日期：2008-2-28
In this argument, the author claims that the global pollution of water and air is the reason for the decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide. The author cites the results of two studies, and exclude another possible reason to ensure us of its rationality. However, a close scrutiny of the supporting evidences reveals that this argument suffers from several flaws, which render it unpersuasive.

In the first place, the argument is based on the assumption that the numbers of amphibians are declining In the park. However, the author fails to provide any persuasive evidence.人家提供了的吧 Though the author cites the results of two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California, the data of the two studies cannot serve to substantiate his/her assumption到底是什么假设嘛. The author does not provide us with any information about the process of the survey. So we cannot make it sure that whether the situation observed by the survey conductor can reflect the true situation of the park. It is quite possible that some of the amphibians in the park has changed their habitats, so the observers have not find them in 1922明显没有读清楚题目. Or perhaps the two study had used different method, so it is meaningless to compare the result of them. Any of these scenarios, if true, may serves to undermine the assumption.

In the second place, the argument is based on the assumption that the numbers of amphibians are declining world widely. However, the author fails to provide us with any information to prove it, such as statistic results of worldwide surveys or worldwide phenomenon which can reflect the trend. Even assuming that amphibians are declining in the park, the situation in a park cannot represent the situation worldwide. It is quite possible that the decline only happens in Yosemite National Park, and the numbers of amphibians in other places have note declined or even increased. If the author cannot exclude this possibility, he/she cannot make us to believe that the numbers of amphibians is declining world widely.

In the third place, by exclude the possibility that the decline of the amphibians is caused by the introduction of trout, the author implies that there is no other possibilities. However, there is no evidence to support this assertion. It is quite possible that though the introduction of amphibians is not the reason, the declining of the numbers of amphibians is caused by other reasons, rather than pollution of water and air. For example, perhaps it is the excessive hunting that has caused the decline. Or perhaps the rising global temperature should be blame. If the author cannot exclude these and other possibilities, he/she cannot persuasive us that the pollution is the reason.

In sum, the argument suffers from several flaws which render it logically unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, further investigation and analysis should are needed. If so, it will be more thorough and adequate.
看不下去了，看看别人改的吧
感觉自己还是有点没有吃透这个题目
看看官方范文再说

emteddybearUID: 2699606

38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
================================================

偶的Argument处女作：
The newsletter recommends that a nutritional supplement calling Ichthaid derived from fish oil is a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. As discussed below, however, the argument suffers from several critical flaws and is therefore mot well reasoned.简单的开头

First of all, the arguert fails to convince me that colds could be prevented by eating a substantial number of fish, for the reason that there are some other alternative explanations. Perhaps people in East Meria are all fond of sports and do exercise regularly. Or perhaps they seldom go to see the doctor just because of the nice climate, the well-rounded medical treatment system as well as the light pressure from work. Moreover, perhaps another substance is also in high consumption in their daily life and does work. Owing to the various possibilities mentioned above, the conclusion is far from being guaranteed.

In addtion, the author assumes that Ichthaid which is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil can help prevent colds and lower absenteeism. However, this is not necessarily the case. Even if eating fish can prevent colds, it has not been provided that Ichthaid is the workable element. In other words这个不是换句话说的意思么，应该就是对前面一句话的解释啊？！, maybe another subject can still do the same thing. In addition, even though it is Ichthaid that can prevent colds, it cannot be warranted that it is useful to everybody我觉得这点说得不是很好. Therefore, there is not enough evidence to demonstrate that Ichthaid can help people keep away from colds.

Further more, it cannot be simply assumed that colds are the reason most frequently for absences from school and work. Given that cold is one reason, it is obviously that the argument neglects the other factors which can also result in the absence, such as the bad weather and the disorderly traffic. Besides, they may mainly account for the absence from school and work. Accordingly, the conclusion remains to be dubious.

Last but not least, the arguer does not take into account the inherent differences between the two places. Admitting that colds could be prevented by eating a substantial number of fish, we cannot assume that this same scenario will work in West Meria. There are a couple of variables that can contribute to the case in East Meria, such as the climate, the lifestyle and some other aspects. Therefore, it is unfair to make this conclusion.虽然说的是两个地方的不同，但是我还是觉得和body1有点意思重复，特别是他的实例

In sum, this argument has been weakened by the flaws mentioned above. More evidence should be provided to warrant that Ichthaid can be a way to prevent colds and lower adsenteeism. In order to strengthen the argument, more detailed and scientific studies should be implemented to show that Ichthaid really has a causal link to colds prevention and the reducing of absence from school and work..
由于前面都有几篇同主题了，很多就不写了，但是感觉这篇分析得也很好

emteddybearUID: 2699606

30.
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=498294&highlight
TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
看不懂题目，把翻译搬出来：13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能是在早秋怀孕的，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑功能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段。
原因1日照减少增加——>推论1.早秋母亲分泌melatonin（影响大脑功能）
推论1+原因2.25名儿童从婴儿到青年的表现——>推论2.婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段——>这些儿童在早秋被怀上

WORDS: 512          TIME: 上午 12:28:23          DATE: 2006-7-20

In this argument, the author asserts that the so-called shyness during infancy is due to levels of melatonin before birth, and the shyness would continue to exist in a child's later life. To support his assertion, a study covers a span of thirteen years is mentioned in the argument, through which the arguer intends to establish some interrelationship between the melatonin and the expression of shyness. Unfortunately, the conclusion drawn from the evidence mentioned above is not convincing enough for us to accept.

To begin with, the study conducted thirteen years ago is statistically unreliable as it stands. Firstly, no evidence is provided that the chosen group of 25 infants is basically the same in some other important characters, such as the gender, the age, etc. Also, whether the subject is representative enough is dubious, since 25 constitutes such a little portion that it could lend little credence to the subsequent deduction. In view of these statistical unreliability, it is unreasonable to draw any conclusion based on statistics of only 25 infants.攻击材料

Even assuming that the study is substantiated enough, the causality established between the shyness and the chemical secretion of melatonin is unverified. On the one hand, no evidence indicates that the mild distress is the symptom of the shyness. Perhaps this distress is due to the physical discomfort rather than shyness. On the other hand, the arguer fails to provide scientific evidence demonstrating the cause-and –effect relationship between the shyness of infants and the melatonin. Perhaps the melatonin could work only to the mother, rather than the infant, since it is the mother who creates the melatonin. Besides, as for infants, other possibilities could be responsible for the shyness as well, such as the family environment, the inherent characteristic, etc. Thus, without precluding all the alternatives, the facts in the argument alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and-effect relationship.

Given that the shyness during infancy is related the melatonin, whether the correlation would continue into their later life is open to doubt. The teenagers’ subjective feelings cannot serve as the sound evidence indicating the existence of shyness. Perhaps the children make up the fact which misleads the judge of the researchers. Or perhaps the children say so in order to be accord with others. If so, maybe our researchers should resort to some scientific equipment to measure the existence of the so-called shyness accurately and effectively. Also, there is no evidence that the melatonin continues to be responsible for the shyness. As infants grow up, other external factors would work. For example, the growth environment, includes the family relationship, friends they make, the interests they gravitate to, etc. It seems that many external factors could better explain the shyness. Again, without ruling out these above-mentioned possibilities, the causality is open to doubt.

In conclusion, the suggestion in the argument is unsound as it stands, for several logical fallacies. To strengthen the arguer’s assertion, more detailed information concerning the sample characters, the efficacy of measurement of the shyness should be provided. Also, other potential reasons should be further investigated.
这篇确实还有点晕，再看看同主题

emteddybearUID: 2699606

终于看完了，最大的感觉就是大家的开头结尾好像都差不多，但是由于我对官方范文和北美范文都没有仔细研究过，不知道自己的判断对不对，看完这么多篇习作之后，有种强烈的愿望想要知道权威的东西是什么。怎么样写才最好的，还有就是自己的语言还得再加强，加油！！！