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本帖最后由 中原527 于 2009-12-12 11:42 编辑
17 TOPIC: ARGUMENT80 - The following appeared as an editorial in a health magazine.
"Clormium 5 is an odorless, tasteless, and generally harmless industrial by-product that can enter the water supply. A preliminary study has linked cooking with water containing clormium 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin rashes. Tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of clormium 5.(可能还有其他成分的影响) Although it is possible to remove clormium 5 from water, the costs of routine testing and purification are higher than many communities can afford. Therefore, in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers."(前面已说过linked cooking with water containing clormium 5一般来说是家庭用水来做饭,有谁会跑到公共场合去接水做饭?)
WORDS: 397 TIME: 00:28:25 DATE: 2008-11-6 19:56:41
Before the implementation the recommendation in the argument above, there are several evidence which need to be reexamined in some other aspects, as discussed below.
To begin with, the result of study is open to doubt. Firstly, the argument above provide no detail or information concerning how many people participate the study and how they are selected. (样本容量问题)Common sense tells us that the smaller the sample size is, the less reliable and credible the result of study will be. Perhaps, only 100 people participate the study, if this is the case, this small sample size is insufficient and imprecise to draw any conclusion. Also due to lacking of information concerning how people are selected to participate the study, we cannot conclude whether the result of study is representative enough. Secondly, the study overlooks other factors which can lead to allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, due to eating some unclean food, some of the participants get allergies and skin rashes. If this is the case, the conclusion renders its incredibility due to ignore other factors which can lead the same symptoms, such as skin rashes.
样本容量小;可能有其他的原因导致allergies and skin rashes
In addition, even if the result of the study is substantiated, it does not follow that presence of clormium 5 will definitely cause allergies and skin rashes. Perhaps, the amount of clormium 5 in the drinking water is little so that it is insufficient to cause people sick. Perhaps, some other materials exist in the drinking water too, which prohibit the effect of clormium 5 to cause people sick. Without ruling out all these possibilities above, the conclusion of argument is groundless to me.
水里面有其他成分导致sick(其实上一段中也有类似的意思,可以挪下来和这段合并一起谈,即可能有其他的原因)
Last not the least, even if the foregoing assumptions are all substantiated, it does not follow that replacing drinking fountains in public buildings with bottled-water coolers will be the best solution. The argument overlooks other methods to deal with drinking water containing clormium 5, which maybe more economical and effective. Perhaps, adding some medicines into the water can offset the effects of clormium 5. Further, the argument does not provide any information concerning bottled-water. Perhaps, these bottled-water still contains clormium 5. In this sense, the recommendation amounts to nothing.
感觉这段像诡辩:瓶装水比处理C5要省钱(题目已经明确指出处理C5可能要花费很多钱所以要用bottled-water coolers,也就是说暗示B可能省钱也可能没有C5)
In conclusion, the argument above fails to convince me. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide more detail about the preliminary study above and other methods which can be used for dealing with the drink water containing clormium 5.
看了后面有人的批改,觉得此人逻辑好严密啊,我没注意到的问题他注意到了,看下别人的评语也可以扩展一下自己的思维辨析能力
我还没有参加AW考试,提一点点拙见
文章的结论:Therefore, in order to prevent allergies and skin rashes, communities that cannot afford to rid their drinking water of clormium 5 should replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries, with bottled-water coolers."
如果想让这个结论成立,需要做几个假设:
1.allergies and skin rashes是clormium 5引起的(第一个假设)。A preliminary study has linked cooking with water containing clormium 5 to an increased incidence of allergies and skin rashes. 这里的红色字体有些问题,preliminary study 得出的结论是否科学?这里提到的是cooking和allergies and skin rashes有关,是什么样的关系?如果含有clormium 5的水不去cooking,那么会不会就没有allergies and skin rashes?如果是这样,那public buildings就没必要装bottled-water coolers,因为这里的用水不是用来cooking的。
2.那些负担不起除去clormium 5花费的社区的饮用水里含有clormium 5(第二个假设)。这一点是值得怀疑的,文章只是说Tests of the drinking water in several areas have revealed the presence of clormium 5.那有可能付不起除clormium 5费用的社区的饮用水不含有clormium 5
3.replace drinking fountains with bottled-water coolers是有效果的(第三个假设)。文章没有提供相关的证据,即使是有效果的,那检测和净化的费用是最便宜的吗?
4.replace drinking fountains in public buildings, such as schools and libraries能够有效的防止 allergies and skin rashes(第四个假设)。仅仅通过在公共场合安装这个 bottled-water coolers就可以了吗?在家庭,工作....的地方一样会感染啊!
而你在这里所攻击的对象:1. 调查样品、方法
2. clormium 5 和allergies and skin rashes的因果关系
3. bottled-water coolers不一定是最好的办法 |
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