ARGUE73
The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.
"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."
The manager of a car dealership proposed a change in the focus of their business from selling cars to leasing them based on the prediction that a prospective a greater demand in car leasing industry would bring a larger profit margin than selling cars. This prediction, however, is not substantiated with sufficient evidence and could not stand to close examination. To begin with, the manager attempted to justify his prediction that new car leases will outnumber purchases this year by citing the steadily risen in popularity of leasing and its larger number of people than buying new cars in the last five years. Admittedly, this advantage in number of people did gain some ground for his prediction. Nevertheless, it does not automatically translate to new leases this year would also outnumber purchases. We are well informed that customer preference in a market economy is in a constant flux. A popular trend of leasing a car this year could suddenly be replaced by a new-released high-tech vehicle or great bargain offered by car manufacturers. Without further information about a market analysis specifically designed to investigate the customers' changing demands in car industry, we cannot decide whether new car leases again would outnumber purchases this year, thus renders the claim that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars unwarranted. Even if we assume that the steadily risen in popularity of leasing cars continues this year, it is still open to doubt that whether the majority of drivers will have leased instead of individually owned cars. The manager precluded alternative choices like second-hand car, which is another form of individually owned car that belongs to the selling cars industry. Given the increasing trend of car leasing provided in this argument, we might infer that more and more people are using cars more frequently than before. In this way, they are considered as potential buyers of a second-hand or even a new car. It is entirely possible that these people would find that a second-hand car is more convenient and costs less money than long-term car leasing. Ignored information about second-hand car market begs the question that whether majority o drivers will be driving leased instead of individually owned cars. Moreover, The proposed redirection in the company's business unfarily assumed that more people leasing cars than buying cars would increase their revenue. A greater demand in the leasing car industry alone, if turned out to be true, cannot guarantee a larger profit margin when compared to selling cars. On the one hand, we are provided no evidence to believe that this increasing demand would sustain and be stabilized for the next decades, or even longer times given the fact that the relatively short history of long-term car leasing in our country. Whether it could continue to thrive or flourish subject to the test of time. On the other hand, the profit gap between selling and leasing cars is unknown. Whether the outnumbered quantities could make up for the less profit margin is indefensible. Common sense is that a single sold new car would generate a revenue that even ten leased car barely bring about. In summary, this recommendation of the manager is seriously flawed by a unwarranted prediction and unfairly presumption. Before rush to change the focus of their business from selling cars to leasing them, he and his crew might as well conduct a specific market analysis based on customers preferences and cost-revenue comparison.
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发表于 2009-12-15 14:59:37
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