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lillian468UID: 2560397

OPIC: ARGUMENT223 - The following appeared as an editorial in one of Coleville's city newspapers.

"Even though a high percentage of Coleville City's businesses failed last year, we who live in Coleville City should keep in mind the fact that the Coleville region has attracted a great many new businesses over the last three years. It is well known that new businesses are, on average, much more likely to fail than are long-established ones, so the business failures should not be considered a sign of poor economic health. Indeed, many analysts regard the presence of a significant number of new companies among a region's businesses as a sign of economic health. Thus Coleville City appears to be in good, not poor, economic shape."
WORDS: 490          TIME: 00:45:00          DATE: 2010-01-19 10:02:11

From my point of view, this argument is wellexpressed but unfortunately, neither extensive nor profound. Simply by offering some ungrounded assumptions and unclear evidence, the author of this argument attempt to convince me that the Coleville City appears to be in good, not poor, economic shape even though a high percentage of businesses failed last year. To support his or her statement, the author cites much analysis. However, several logical fallacies found in this argument seriously weaken the cogency of the reasoning. I will specify and analyse these flaws in turn.

One of the major problems with this argument is that the author disregard to provide reasonable evidence that those new business failures should not be considered a sign of poor economic health.
For one thing, maybe the fact is that newestablished companies  is incurring  huge losses while old ones are all able to survive. For another, those failures may be due to overall economic depression , so this region cannot escape from bad influence. Only informed that this statement is will known,  I have no idea whether this is trustworthy. Therefore, the author must provide sufficient evidence to demonstrate that Coleville City is really enjoying a prosperity of economic growth.

Even assuming that new corporation’s failure does nothing to do with the sign of business lost of this region, the relevance between new companies being attracted to there and new business established here cannot manifest that the former is attributable to latter . Although common sense and some experience informed me that such relationship might be reasonable, the author eliminates other alternative explanations before I can accept the author's final conclusion. As matter of fact, however, the author fails to do so, and this seriously cast doubts on the argument. For example, those being attracted companies are lack of economic support or have anther better location options
Lastly , but most importantly, the argument commit a incautious conclusion that people live in Coleville City should believe that their region's economic turn out to be great by virtue of the presence of a significant number of new companies among a region's businesses . Obviously, the argument overlooks some alternative explications. It is entirely possible that those old-established companies are suffering a huge lost even some of them have already closed up. Or maybe the consumer's demand has been decreasing dramatically for the past few years and there has been a serious unemployment problems existed. Without accounting for those possibilities I mentioned above, the author cannot convincingly conclude that Coleville City has not struggling a significant economic fall.
In sum, this argument, while at first glance it seems rational, has diverse flaws as discussed above. The arguer must proffer evidence to exclude all the above mentioned likelihood that can undermine the argument.  Additionally, providing various highly authoritative researches or survey will be more believable. In order to improve this argument, the author must detail the information he or she used to persuade me.