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本帖最后由 aliciawj 于 2010-1-31 18:00 编辑
【ECO】
America's economy
Ticking up
America's economy grew by 5.7% at the end of 2009. Yet it remainsvulnerable
Jan 29th 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC| From The Economist online
AFTER a tough start to 2010, Barack Obama could nothave asked for better news on the economy to distract attention from hispolitical difficulties. In the fourth quarter of last year American GDP grew byan impressive 5.7%, at an annual rate, the best quarterly performance since2003. Expansion was driven by growth in private inventories and an increase inexports. For all of 2009 output declined by 2.4%, but for Americans weary fromtwo years of declining employment, the fourth-quarter figure offers a clearsignal that the worst is over.
Yet only cautious celebration is in order(1). There arereasons to doubt that the impressive performance in a single quarter will berepeated in the coming months. Weak fundamentals will prevent the Americaneconomy from sustaining that fast pace of growth. Of the 5.7% increase in realoutput, 3.4 percentage points came from inventory changes, as firms which hadoperated on a shoestring(1) in the recession built inventories back to normallevels. That brief buying spree(2) brought some workers back to assembly lines,but unless a new source of demand arises the boost from restocking will fadeand growth will slow.
There are already signs of a loss of momentum(3).According to Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, most of the inventory boostcame in October, when growth roared ahead at a 16.4% annual rate. By November,growth had already quietened substantially. And throughout the fourth quarterthe economy has continued to shed jobs. It is difficult to sustain growth whenemployment is not rising.
Nor is it clear where new demand might arise(2). As theGDP report makes plain, personal consumption remains extremely weak;consumption rose by just 2.0% for the quarter, below the 2.8% increase of theprevious three months. Spending will probably remain subdued throughout 2010.According to a recent IMF research note, the crisis and recession significantlydamaged household wealth, suggesting that savings rates will rise in arecovery. The effect on consumption may be to trim 3% off(4) GDP relative topre-crisis levels. Indeed, the fourth-quarter savings rate ticked up to 4.6%,from 4.5% during the previous period. New demand growth will have to comeelsewhere.
Investment may also disappoint in 2010, because ofovercapacity. Oversupply in both residential and commercial property hasdiscouraged investment in the sectors and meant that construction employment isnot rising. Housing starts continue to languish(5) at around a third of normallevels. Industrial-capacity use is similarly well below pre-recession levels.Until most existing capacity is put to productive use, there is little reasonfor businesses to make new investments.
Nor does it help that government economic support willfade during 2010(3). Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com, estimatesthat the federal stimulus contributed about two percentage points of growth inthe fourth quarter. That will drop below one percentage point by mid-year andfall to nothing thereafter. State budget cuts will also be a drain on output,as they have been for most of the recession. Drops in state-government spendingsubtracted 0.1% from output for all of 2009.
And even the fourth quarter's spirited performance maybe overstated. Third-quarter growth was originally reported at 3.5%, only to berevised down later to 2.2%.
Nonetheless, the performance of the American economyin the fourth quarter is encouraging, suggesting firmly that America haspulled free of recession. Yet caution is in order. If the response is to cutback quickly on fiscal and monetary support for the economy, this flash ofgrowth could disappear as quickly as it emerged.
(1)shoestring: adj./n. idiom that uses very little money
(2)spree: a period of activity,especially criminal activity
(3)momentum: n. theability to keep increasing or developing
(4)表示减去N% 还可以这样说: trim N% off
(5)languish: v.
Languish in sth.: to beforced to stay somewhere or suffer sth. Unpleasant for a long time
To become weaker orfail to make progress
Yet only cautious celebration is in order(1)
Nor is it clear where new demand might arise(2)
Nor does it help that government economic support willfade during 2010(3)
倒装句(总结关于倒装句的两种情况)
一、完全倒装:全部谓语置于主语之前
1、there be 句型
2、here ( there, now, then ) + 不及物动词 + 主语
3、out, in, up, down, away等副词开头的句子
4、句首状语为表示地点的介词词组
5、表语 + 连系动词 + 主语
(1)adj. + 连系动词 + 主语
(2)过去分词 + 连系动词 + 主语
(3)介词短语 + be + 主语
6、so, nor, neither开头的句子
二、部分倒装:只把助动词、情态动词放在主语之前
1、疑问句
2、省略if的虚拟条件状语句
Had youreviewed your lessons, you might have passed the examination.
3、形容词(或名词、动词) + as ( through ) 引导的让步状语从句
4、no sooner … than …, hardly … when …, 和 not until句子
5、never, hardly, seldom, scarcely, barely, little, often, at no time, notonly, not once, many a time等词开头的句子
6、only开头的句子(only放在句首,修饰副词、介词短语或状语从句)
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