【1010G精英组】Argument14 F组回收站

lynnuanaUID: 2772328

限时写作第六篇：Argument14
一天一篇，作文直接跟帖，修改直接跟帖
5月19日上交+批改

14The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

发帖参考：总贴地址    F组素材积累库地址

makeithappenUID: 2585223

The author intends to give a suggestion to increase the profit of Green Thumb Gardening Center; however, the evidence used in the argument does not sufficient to guarantee the profitability of expanding the variety of vegetable seeds.  Without deeply understanding the cost and benefit of expanding seeds, the consequence of the new strategy that greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds which were stock for gardeners this coming spring becomes fuzzy. Adopting the new strategy when lacks sufficient evidence maybe more dangerous than doing nothing.

First of all, the argument above is weakening by the fact that it does not take the cost of new strategy into account. As we all know that we can increase the profits only by decrease the cost or increase the benefit. If the cost of expanding the variety of vegetable seeds is huge, since the Green Thumb Gardening already has most of the vegetable seeds. Or if the space of Green Thumb Gardening Center is rare, the price of the space is relatively high, which means that stock those vegetable seeds expensively. Under the situation mentioned above, GTGC is likely lose money when execute the new strategy. So lacking discussion about of cost makes the argument lame.

The argument also fails to give enough evidence to illustrate that the new strategy will surely increase the benefit. There is no accurate number or increasing trend about the demand of vegetable seeds. All the argument presented are just some inutile or questionable information. since the survey conducted only at one month, the conclusion might be no helpful to predict the long-turn trend of the demand of the seeds. For example, if there are some specific bad news about supermarkets spreading in the month, the dissatisfaction about supermarket will surely rise. The survey conducted in national arranges which might also not suitable for the case of suburban town. What's more, although the conclusions about the dissatisfaction and magazine are definitely accurate, there is no any direct evidence to illustrate that the demand of the vegetable seeds increasing. The dissatisfaction about the supermarket's vegetables and the hot-sell of Garden magazine might just occur incidentally. If the GTGC fallacious regard the irrelative information as an evidence of rocketing demand of seeds, it will make huge mistakes.

The argument goes not differentiate between demands of seeds. The conclusion that greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring will increase the profits suggests that it is presumed that people prefer to garden different seeds. This is not certainly the case. Some people prefer the garden a specific vegetables. Just expanding the number of vegetable seeds may be more beneficial than expanding the variety of vegetable seeds. Before GTGC are encouraged to expand the variety of vegetable seeds, a more complete understanding of demand of various seeds in this suburban town would be necessary.

Executing the new strategy, that greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring, without a comprehend survey about its cost and benefit, would lead to increditable loss.

lynnuanaUID: 2772328

1 National survey last month—>many 顾客不满意超市fresh vegetables的质量
2 杂志Great Gardens在Village News报亭连续3months 卖光  
-->消费者越来越喜欢自己种菜
--> Green Thumb Gardening Center来年春天可以大量储备the variety of vegetable seeds 来increase our profits
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In this memo, the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center (GTGC) concludes that GTGC need to expand the stock of the various vegetable seeds for gardeners this coming spring，for the growing interests in growing their own vegetables from the consumers. To support, he cites a national survey last month showing many clients were discontented with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarket and that the magazine Great Gardens has sold out three months in a row at one local newsstand. From my perspective, the argument suffers several logical fallacies and therefore is untenable as it stands.

The first flaw is the citation--the national survey and sales of the local newsstand--which is insufficient to supprt the author's conclusion. Primarily, no evidence is provided to support the assumption that the national level of consumers’ dissatisfaction with the quality of goods could reflect the local level. It is highly possible that the clients in the suburban town feel quite content with the local supply of the fresh vegetables, contrary to the national dissatisfaction. Moreover, the result of the survey “last month” could not forecast the sales of the whole year. Maybe last month, the vegetable plants suffered from severe blights, which has greatly reduced the quality of the fresh vegetables; however, there is no sign to indicate this pest damage would last to this year and thus lead to a continuing dissatisfaction. Further, the reason of the sold-out of the magazine Great Gardens is varied: perhaps the seller changed the way of selling like “buy one get one free”; or they sold the magazine in an extremely low price. Without eliminating these possibilities, it seems the owner hastily make the conclusion that the consumers are dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables and become more and more interested in planting their own vegetables, merely relying on the two suspected cited evidence.

Second, even if the local clients are truly discontent with the quality of fresh vegetables supplied in the supermarket, they would not be likely to grow vegetables by themselves instead. For one thing, many of the consumers may have no time to do this job and also they entirely have no interest in gardening; as a result, they may still buy the vegetables in the supermarket, regardless of the dissatisfaction. For another, the consumers could also buy the vegetables from other stores such as the special food market, the individual vegetable stand and so forth, rather than the supermarket. From this point, the owner fails to rule out these probabilities; his assertion that the consumers would more likely to grow their own vegetables is still open to doubt.

Thirdly, assuming the local costumers indeed prefer growing their own plants, yet there is no evidence to indicate that they would be likely to buy the seeds from GTGC; consequently, whether GTGC need to expand their stock of various vegetable seeds in the following spring would need to be seriously considered. Do the consumers actually need to buy the seeds? Or do they want to buy seeds from GTGC? Moreover, do GTGC have adequate money to expand the sort and the quantity of seeds? Or would the seeds they will introduce fit the local plant growth conditions? With these suspicions, I could not agree with the owner to expand the stock of variety of vegetable seeds for gardeners the coming spring so as to increase the profits.

To sum up, the assertion of the owner is unconvincing. To strengthen it, the owner must provide more persuasive information and evidence that consumers in suburban town truly are dissatisfied with the supermarket vegetables and therefore they would prefer to grow their own vegetables. To better evaluate the argument, more information about alternative sources of vegetables for local consumers and the comprehensive sales status of the local newsstands need to be provided.

lxin333UID: 2650844

国家调查不能反映地区问题
即使对超市蔬菜不满意的消费者不一定对自己种植就有兴趣
杂志售空 不能说明在居民中很受欢迎 不代表消费者就对自己种植有兴趣
对其他改善方式欠缺考虑

In this argument, the author unfairly assumes that the consumers will be interested in growing their own vegetables for reason that they were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarket. And illogically combine the growing interests with the mere fact that the gardening magazine has sold out at a logical stand three month. Thus, the author advises to expand the variety of vegetable seeds to increase profit by a series of unsubstantiated evidence, which render it unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, the author cites the national survey to support his conclusion depends on the false assumption that the national level of satisfaction reflects the local level. Yet it is possible that the national level is due to the dissatisfaction with the vegetables in groceries or other places except or just a little portion of the supermarket, and the residents of this town are quite satisfied with the vegetable supplied by the supermarket. Without ruling out these possibility, the author cannot rely on the survey to conclude that the residents of this town will be interested in buying the seeds from Green Thumb Gardening Center.(GTGC)

Secondly, another untenable assumption is that the consumers who are dissatisfied with the vegetable are likely to grow their own vegetable instead. No evidence is provided to support this assumption. Perhaps consumers still continue to buy vegetables in the supermarket for the reason that to grow on their own will consume a lot of time and energy. Also, they may go to other markets, grocery to buy vegetables. Since the author has not taken these possibilities, the conclusion that the dissatisfaction consumers would be interested in buying seeds from GTGC to grow vegetables cannot be taken seriously.

Thirdly, the mere fact that the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out in the Village News stand three month in a row cannot be a might evidence to show the consumers’ eagerness to buy seeds from GTGC. It is entirely possible that three month ago the sales of the magazine in the village is decreasing all the time and maybe all of the stands except the Village News stand stopped to sell the Great Gardens; or perhaps the Great Gardens reader actually have no interest in growing vegetables but interested in growing plants. Ground on these scenarios, the increasing sales during the past three month of the magazine proves nothing about the trend of local residents to buy seeds and grow vegetable in their gardens.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive for its series of illogical assumption and defective considerations. To strengthen it the author must provide more convincing evidence that the consumers are really dissatisfied with the vegetables in the supermarket and eager to buy seeds from GTGC to grow by themselves. To better access the argument, we also need to know the alternative sources of vegetables for local residents. Finally, the reason why the magazine has sold out should be clearly known.

xmaszztUID: 2796708

In this argument, the author conclude that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables so they at Green Thumb Gardening Center (GTGC) could increase their profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds they stock for gardeners this coming spring. To strengthen this conclusion, the author provide a national survey last month showing many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarkets and that the magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. At first glance, the argument might be somehow reasonable, but close scrutiny reveals that it contains several unconvincing assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.

First, the national survey conducted last month can not forecast the idea of people this coming spring. Maybe last month the drought decreased the quality of vegetables, and I think it is reasonable that quality of vegetables is hard to stabilize in winter—without the suitable temperature and environment; so it is highly possible that people will satisfy with all vegetables in supermarkets in the future. Moreover, the scope of the survey is obviously too broad to this area. Since we do not know the quality of vegetable in this town, we can not calculate the idea of consumers. Perhaps the consumers in this suburban town are pleased with the quality of vegetables served by supermarkets. And even assuming this people in this town also dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetable in supermarkets, no evidence indicate they will grow their own vegetable. They might buy vegetable from other cities or altogether do not eat vegetables, so it is unreasonable they will become interested in growing their own vegetables. I can not accept author’s conclusion by this erroneous evidence.

Second, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row can not illuminate the interest of consumers. It is too simple of the statistic that magazine has sold out only in one stand. Perhaps there is only one magazine of this kind in this stand, so it is normal that it has sold out. And even assuming that the magazine has sold out at all stands in this town is still can not indicate that people will be interested in growing there own vegetable. Perhaps people in this suburban town become more concerned about the natural, or perhaps people buy this magazine because it is sold in a very low price. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author can not reasonable conclude that people prefer growing their own vegetables.

Even assuming consumers really becoming more and more interested in growing vegetables, the author unfairly indicates a causal relation between the GTGC will increase profit and the interest of growing vegetables of consumers. There is no evidence the consumers would buy seeds from GTGC; they would probably buy the seeds in other ways, such as through the internet or from other companies. With these suspicious, I can accept the author’s point that they will increase profit by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds they stock.

In sum, the author’s conclusion is not supported as it stands. To bolster it, the author must provide persuasive information and more evidence that consumers in this town are really interested in growing vegetables. To better assess the problem, the author also need propose a appropriate way to increase their profit.

makeithappenUID: 2585223

In this memo, the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center (GTGC) concludes that GTGC need to expand the stock of the various vegetable seeds for gardeners this coming spring，for the growing interests in growing their own vegetables from the consumers. To support, he cites a national survey last month showing many clients were discontented with the quality of fresh vegetables in supermarket and that the magazine Great Gardens has sold out three months in a row at one local newsstand. From my perspective, the argument suffers several logical fallacies and therefore is untenable as it stands.开头对argument把握好，赞
The first flaw is the citation--the national survey and sales of the local newsstand--which is insufficient to supprtsupport the author's conclusion. Primarily, no evidence is provided to support the assumption that the national level of consumers’ dissatisfaction with the quality of goods could reflect the local level. It is highly possible that the clients in the suburban town feel quite content with the local supply of the fresh vegetables, contrary to the national dissatisfaction. Moreover, the result of the survey “last month” could not forecast the sales of the whole year. Maybe last month, the vegetable plants suffered from severe blights, which has greatly reduced the quality of the fresh vegetables; however, there is no sign to indicate this pest damage would last to this year and thus lead to a continuing dissatisfaction. Further, the reason of the sold-out of the magazine Great Gardens is varied: perhaps the seller changed the way of selling like “buy one get one free”; or they sold the magazine in an extremely low price. Without eliminating these possibilities, it seems the owner hastily make the conclusion that the consumers are dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables and become more and more interested in planting their own vegetables, merely relying on the two suspected cited evidence. 杂志的原因很具体啊。我都没想到
Second, even if the local clients are truly discontent with the quality of fresh vegetables supplied in the supermarket, they would not be likely to grow vegetables by themselves instead. For one thing, many of the consumers may have no time to do this job and also they entirely have no interest in gardening; as a result, they may still buy the vegetables in the supermarket, regardless of the dissatisfaction. For another, the consumers could also buy the vegetables from other stores such as the special food market, the individual vegetable stand and so forth, rather than the supermarket. From this point, the owner fails to rule out these probabilities; his assertion that the consumers would more likely to grow their own vegetables is still open to doubt.
Thirdly, assuming the local costumers indeed prefer growing their own plants, yet there is no evidence to indicate that they would be likely to buy the seeds from GTGC; consequently, whether GTGC need to expand their stock of various vegetable seeds in the following spring would need to be seriously considered. Do the consumers actually need to buy the seeds? Or do they want to buy seeds from GTGC? Moreover, do GTGC have adequate money to expand the sort and the quantity of seeds? Or would the seeds they will introduce fit the local plant growth conditions? With these suspicions, I could not agree with the owner to expand the stock of variety of vegetable seeds for gardeners the coming spring so as to increase the profits.
To sum up, the assertion of the owner is unconvincing. To strengthen it, the owner must provide more persuasive information and evidence that consumers in suburban town truly are dissatisfied with the supermarket vegetables and therefore they would prefer to grow their own vegetables. To better evaluate the argument, more information about alternative sources of vegetables for local consumers and the comprehensive sales status of the local newsstands need to be provided.
整个文章的结构很好。。句子我感觉也很好了
不过我最近一直在考虑Agrument的顺序问题。。我觉得这篇argue的顺序是按照一步步让步的逻辑进行的。。但是我觉得如果首先抓住最主要的问题是不是好一些呢？这个是我的一点思考。。等我再看看范文研究下。。再想想到底这个argue的顺序怎么样更好

lynnuanaUID: 2772328

6# makeithappen

这点我也处理的不好~~
如果没有多少时间的话，我基本是按照题目一步一步分析~~
如果有时间，我就按666的方法先写个逻辑链，从逻辑链箭头左端开始分析~~

我们组以前有讨论过~~http://qun.qq.com/air/108381230#108381230/bbs/view/cd/1/td/7
你可以继续跟帖，我们继续探讨~~