argument45 欢迎拍文互改小组

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

The argument contains several logical flaws rendering its conclusion unpersuasive. First the reliability of the hunters’ reports is susceptible to question. Second, unfairly amounts a coincident correlation to causal-and-effect relationship. Moreover, the editor overlooks some alternative explanations. Each of them will be analyzed in detail in the following.

Turning first to the reports indicating the deer population is on decline, we are informed that they are from the local hunters. Yet, the editor fails to consider the reliability of their reports. Is deer population really declining? Perhaps not. It’s only because the deer hunters come across decline. Maybe deer transfer their habitat from the original one and are thriving in somewhere else hunters are unfamiliar with. Or the hunters they survey are some freshmen who are not expert at tracing deer. For that matter, it's hard to judge whether the deer population declines or otherwise.

Even accepts that deer populations do decline, the author further assume that the decline is attributable to global warming. Admittedly, global warming trends may cause a myriad of glaciers melting in many places. While it does unnecessarily mean that the global climate gets warmer equally. At Arctic, maybe the increase in the temperature, if any, is not enough to cause ice melting. If so, the decline of deer cannot derive form climate change. Additionally, there is no evidence showing the arctic deer are unable to follow their age-old migration patterns or the patterns play a crucial role in the deer’s survival and reproduction. It’s just possible they can adapt to changing environment, one instinct of organism.

Finally, the editor fails to consider alternative explanations for the decline. Perhaps owing to years of slaughter, the deer population is on decrease. Or the deer’s favorite food, some plants, withered due some factors and lead the deer feed on them decreasing. Or the predator preying them is on increase. Absent evidence to rule out all those possibilities, it is unsafe to conclude deer decrease attribute to global warming.



As long as there is some reasoning ability, one can hardly be convinced by the argument. It can be improved by providing further evidence that the deer population do decline and some information about the its living environment of the deer and the impact of the global warming on the see ice.