不知Argument 45 （北极驯鹿迁移的那个）的思路这样写如何？

GabrielGaoUID：2800551

A""Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. Theysearch for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of ayear. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants onwhich they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice tocover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populationsare declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trendsthat have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline inarctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow theirage-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."






  1. The theory of melting ice seems logical and coincides with thecurrent trend of global warming, but maybe global warming makes more soil exposed,so as to facilitate the growth of grass and finally even increase the deerpopulation.


2.    2. No evidence shows that the ice is really melted. The hunter didnot report the condition of ice at all. Even it is melted in some level, it canalso possible sustain the migration of deer.


3.    3. Local information provided by hunters is not convincing, firstthey judge not in a scientific way but by a casual one. Secondly, local fluctuationof population cannot prove the entire trend of population.


Solution: ascientific way to study the ice, the food supply and also the deer’s migration thisyear is required. Maybe we need satellite to know where exactly these deer are.Are they somewhere else? Are they trapped in an isolated land? Are they deadalready?

jannethUID：2769502

1.如果LZ的写作顺序也是上面的提纲顺序，个人感觉有点乱，一般写作顺序要么是原文中错误出现的顺序，要么是错误的严重性的顺序，一般前者比较好，个人感觉哈～
2.这里作者引用了一个report,我觉得是重点质疑，然后统一放到一段，像LZ在2，3中都有，好乱啊，
report的真实性，可能仅仅是鹿的作息时间，活动范围改变了。
3.气候的变暖文中只说是全球性的，但不一定全球性的能影响到当地啊，即使影响到了，也不一定能使冰完全融化从而是deer不能过去，可能只是部分，影响不了整个行动。
4.还有其他的可能啊，过度猎杀，天敌出现，食物短缺啥的。
呃...我是菜鸟，水平有限，只能看出这么多了，呵呵，加油:)

GabrielGaoUID：2800551

前提： arctic deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

证据（只有一个）：local hunters found that  the deer populations are declining.

结论：the decline in arctic deer populations.

前两点攻击前提和结论的矛盾，最后一点攻击证据和结论的矛盾。

1．        The decline of arctic deer populations might be caused by other reasons, not simply melting ice and global warming. There might be manmade overhunting, pollution to the food source, etc.

2．        Even if it is largely because of melting ice, no evidence shows that the ice is really melted in the argument. No information provided regarding to ice at all. Even it is melted in some level, it can also possible sustain the migration of deer.

3．        Local information provided by hunters is not convincing, first they judge not in a scientific way but by a casual one. Secondly, local fluctuation of population cannot prove the entire trend of population.

Solution: Must preclude other reasons influencing the deer’s population. After these premises ruled out, a scientific way to confirm the proof. We need satellite to know where exactly these deer are. Are they somewhere else? Are they trapped in an isolated land? Are they dead already?

GabrielGaoUID：2800551

我又重新思考了一下并且修改了。这次呢？

DonDonDonUID：2779126

。。为什么 我感觉新的提纲还没有第一个清楚呢，沙发的那位同学思路比较反映lz的问题，我也列一下我的思路，希望对楼主有帮助：
1。猎人的report——deer少了，此为A1
2。global warming——ice melted，此为A2；
3。the habitat of deer do not change，此为A3；（这个很犹豫）
A1+A2+A3——global warming 导致了deer少

另外，conclusion是the decline in population of the deer？？应该是最后一句吧。。

bestrose7UID：2783413

结论是鹿不能过海是数量减少的原因，思路是不是应该
1.证明数量减少还有其他原因；
2.证明它们还是能过海？
还有结论是不是imply了过不了海所以没有食物？没有食物才是数量减少的根本原因？
这个题我也没明白……求达人~~10号就考了，从未完整写过，555……:mad:

DonDonDonUID：2779126

恩 ls的我同意~~我没有仔细分析conclusion
deer can't migrate cross the metled ice——the declined of population of deer。
hunters report——deer 少了；
global warming——local warming——ice metled——deer can't migrate cross the melted ice——they can't search food——deer少了

anniehalUID：2716032

7# DonDonDon

我早上写这篇写道一般实在写不下去了。。好乱阿。

我没看懂你那个呀。。

我后来想的，大家讨论下哦。
1）report 不可靠，deer没少；
2）即时deer少了，不是global warming导致的不能migrate：1）冰够厚，可以migrate 2）找到其他路migrate了。
3）即时因为global warming 导致不能migrate, deer也不一定会少。1）天气热了食物可以自己长了，没必要migrate。

总归觉得不大对。。。。。

DonDonDonUID：2779126

8# anniehal

1）report 不可靠，deer没少；
2）即时deer少了，不是global warming导致的不能migrate：1）冰够厚，可以migrate 2）找到其他路migrate了。
3）即时因为global warming 导致不能migrate, deer也不一定会少。1）天气热了食物可以自己长了，没必要migrate。

你的第三点deer不一定少和第二段即使deer少了矛盾~~
关于第二个，我的思路是：deer少了不一定是global warming引起的，因为：local warming？即使本地也是，ice melted能到使deer can't migrate的程度？或许正如lz所说，陆地露出来呢。
第三，deer can't migrate is the reason why the population of deer declined？或许deer的habits改变了呢。作者也没有考虑其他的原因啊  例如捕杀，天敌出现等

anniehalUID：2716032

8# anniehal  

1）report 不可靠，deer没少；
2）即时deer少了，不是global warming导致的不能migrate：1）冰够厚，可以migrate 2）找到其他路migrate了。
3）即时因为global warming 导致不能migrate, deer也 ...
DonDonDon 发表于 2010-7-30 13:39

总算通了~
谢谢阿~！！

figuechenUID：2850619

8# anniehal  

1）report 不可靠，deer没少；
2）即时deer少了，不是global warming导致的不能migrate：1）冰够厚，可以migrate 2）找到其他路migrate了。
3）即时因为global warming 导致不能migrate, deer也 ...
DonDonDon 发表于 2010-7-30 13:39

第二点还可以更详细一点：
Global Warming不代表当地气温上升
当地气温上升不代表冰会化
冰会化不代表很多很多冰都化了
就算很多很多冰都化了，鹿也未必不能迁徙，比如会游泳，找到其它路了