Argument6 第一次作业

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6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

逻辑：
1不一定占有市场2不一定流行3收听的人多正代表俱乐部不能盈利->俱乐部不一定盈利
2参加音乐节的人多，音乐家在住不代表流行
In the article, the author makes the statement that C note can make money, for these 3 reasons below: a, C note can have the local market all; b, Jazz music can be popular; c, jazz fan can spend money on Jazz entertainment. We must say that details are unclear, reasoning is illogical, conclusion is not alright.
In the first place, processing of the market cannot be so ideally and completely. Nearest club is 65 miles away? This must be wrong because 100,000 people’s festival (according to the article, 100,000 people attend the Monroe’s jazz festival)must be held in the stadium, and the city has stadium has not jazz club is unthinkable. Even if the nearest jazz club is far away enough(such like 65miles which is illustrated in the article), will C note control the market? If we can found a club, some body else can also found a club, then the nearest club is not far enough. In another word, author did not think about market is changeable, and other factors can make it change.(for example, new style music such as punk, metal, funk, grunge may take the market away from the hands of jazz ) And other factors can make it useless, in another word, even if Jazz handle the market, club is not definitely profitable.
In the second place, let us take the popularity based on the arguer’s statement into the consideration. Can these statement (a, numbers of people attending the jazz festival; b, several jazz grandmasters live in the city )be the reasoning of the consideration that Jazz is popular? Firstly, 100,000 people who attend the music festival may mostly come from other places, this condition can tell us the phenomenon that local people who like jazz music may be not so close to 100,000. What’s more, people who attend jazz music festival may not come for the jazz, they may mainly love rock, and come here just for the music, not for the jazz music, when back to the life, they will mainly listen to the rock music, and put the jazz aside. Secondly, grand masters can not make the jazz popular. Kant lived in his hometown, in his time, did philosophy popular? Masters just live there, this has nothing about jazz’s popularity. So, in conclusion, the popularity of the jazz music is questionable, this will leads the profitability of the jazz club questionable indirectly.(popularity infects the number of the consumer)
Besides, most-rated radio program is about jazz illustrate the phenomenon that a lot of people listen to the jazz music on the radio. This phenomenon leads to the conclusion that the club will not make money because people will not go to, though they love jazz. What they usually do is listening the jazz music on the radio.
In sum, auger naively considered the factors of making money such as cursorily estimated the market, half hearted thought about the popularity, did not know the fact about radio completely, all of these lead to the wrong decision.