argument15【snickers小组】提纲作业帖

zhangwanyingUID: 2775533

*******************argument提纲作业*******************
第2周； 周4； 11月13日；
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argument 15

Title：ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their
intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in
many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy
Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish
greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders
to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

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请每位组员于11月13日 23:30之前，将各自的提纲贴在楼下。

zcsdtcUID: 2875047

文章观点是，作者希望 old dairy stockholders sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.
理由是：old dairy industries  product food with high fat and cholesterol , and  a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their ntake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores

反驳：首先这个调查的人数是多少，选取的顾客是否有代表性，80%的人 想买低脂和低胆固醇的食品，但现在低脂和低胆固醇的食品究竟在市场中占了多少的份额没有明确的数据，如果很低，说明人们还是没有去购买，只是有这个意愿。
其次，old dairy 产品的销售情况如何，如果销售情况不错，说明还是值得支持的。也说明现在低脂和低胆固醇的食品只是有流行的趋势而未真正开始流行。所以，old dairy 可以逐渐的对自己的产品进行过渡，这样会收到很好的效果。

daniexiaUID: 2403405

By relying on the survey that most respondents want to reduce their intake of high fat foods and the fact that ODI's products are high in fat and cho, the author tries to dissuade the investors from purchasing stock in ODI.
(1) The respondents being interviewed in the survey may contain only a very small number of the population of the whole area.
(2) Even the respondents have a desire to reduce the intake of fat food, they may still consume lots of them. Perhaps, they live in a district which has not many kinds of food but fat food and cholesterol food, so they have no choice to buy other food but only these food. The desire of reducing fat food is scant evidence that they will actually carry out their words. Maybe, they still consume a lot of these food.
(3) It may be true that ODI has a great amount of food products that are high in fat and chol, but ODI can still have a lot of low-fat food that is more healthy for people to take in. Thus, the conclusion that the company's sales are likely to decline lacks evidence and is wrongly assumed. Moreover, ODI can increase their profits in other ways, such as licensing their patents.
(4) The instigation of abandoning the shares of ODI may be wrong, because it is possible that ODI doesn't lose money as the above refutation presents. The evidence for deciding whether to buy or sell the stock of this company may be too trivial, and need a more comprehensive study of the company's financial situation.

zhangwanyingUID: 2775533

(1)There is no necessary diescription about the amount and structure of the respondents, the indication of their desire to reduce the intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol cannot be equivalent to their exclusion on buying thse food.
(2)There is no evidence provided to indicate that the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. Perhaps this company also produce many other kinds of healthy and delicious food which may greatly aroused the interest of the consumers.
(3) The author's instigation is irrational and rude because of the absence of a comprehensive and scientific analysis on the financial position and the prospect of the company.

彼年豆蔻UID: 2791778

Argument15： 1arguer认为O的许多产品是高热量的，在现在的市场将不受消费者青睐，因此利润会下降。论断的前提就是片面且错误的，虽然又许多高热量的产品，但并没有信息说明O不生产低热量的产品。即使现在真的没有，也没有证据证明它以后不会做。
2arguer用一份显示消费者想要减少高热量食品的摄取的调查来说明O的高热量产品销量会下降。然而并没有证据表明消费者在购买食品时，热量是唯一选择标准。也许O的产品口味或质量特别好，会让消费者忽视它们的脂肪含量。
3作者表示现在市面上有很多低热量食品，但并没有证据表示这些食品会对O的产品造成冲击。也没有证据显示这些产品是否和O的产品种类相同。也没有信息表明消费者更加喜欢这些低热量的产品。
4就算因为现在O的低热量产品太少导致利润真的下降，让人抛售股票及劝人不要购进也是一个非常草率的决定。因为没有证据证明O再也不会调整市场策略，加大低热量产品的生产量了。如果O从现在开始进行调整，以它现在的市场占有率，也许扭转劣势。
5 结论草率，如果想要证明O确实不值得投资，就要提供更多信息：O不会有新低热量产品了，O的现有市场已受到冲击。