[风雨与共] 12.19 提纲作业 by 【7】

shawn_pysUID: 2770388

Argument

12. The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job
accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accident is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."

1. 不同的工厂之间的数据没有可比性，可能是由于作业的危险性差距很大，还有可能公司规模也不同
2. 30%的数据没有提供基数，可能30%的差幅并不大
3. 虽然工作时间长，跟高事故数之间有联系，但并不一定是因果关系

13. The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book 'Squirrel Power', by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constrains on our company in the shot-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in 'Squirrel Power' will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."

1. Wood 之前的三本书畅销不代表这一本同样畅销
2. 其第一本书改编成的电影能够盈利，不表示改编成游戏会同样盈利，属于错误类比
3. 使用原作的角色及故事情节并不一定会节省开发成本，因为在开发游戏时可能无法使用原情节

15. The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores . Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

1. 调查数据不可靠
2. 人们在购买的时候不会只考虑食品含有的脂肪和热量
3. 该公司同样可以开发生产低脂、低热量的商品来增加销售额

shawn_pysUID: 2770388

Issue

16"Although many people think that the luxuries and conveniences of contemporary life are entirely harmless, in fact, they actually prevent people from developing into truly strong and independent individuals."

有保留的赞成：
1. 现代生活的便捷舒适使人类越来越多的依靠机器，而自己动手的能力越来越弱，身体越来越瘦弱。
2. 但是现代的生活方式使人类可以将更多的精力投入到思想层面去，需要的体力劳动越来越少。
3. 想要得到锻炼，工作、步行外出并不是唯一的方式。

25"Anyone can make things bigger and more complex. What requires real effort and courage is to move in the opposite direction—in other words, to make things as simple as possible."

平衡观点：
1. （简化问题是需要努力跟勇气的，当你排除掉一个大家都认为影响结果的因素的时候，难道是一件轻而易举的事情吗？）
2.  但是把问题扩大化、复杂化虽然看似简单，但是，有意义的扩大跟复杂却不是这么容易的事情
3. 简化问题和扩大问题、复杂问题是同样重要，同样需要个人的勇气跟努力的

13. "Many of the world's lesser-known languages are being lost as fewer and fewer people speak them. The governments of countries in which these languages are spoken should act to prevent such languages from becoming extinct."

有保留的反对：
1. 必须承认的是，一个语种的消失是一件遗憾的事情，因为语言是一个文化的根本，语种的消失就意味着一种文化的没落。
2. 但是单单为了保护一个已经渐渐没有人使用的语言，而投入大量的人力物力去防止其消失并没有多大意义。

3. 并且如果某种语言的消失是因为使用某种更为通用的语言所造成的，那我们可能更应该鼓励其发展，因为这样有利于更广范围的交流。