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本帖最后由 couson 于 2011-2-4 19:25 编辑
ARGU提纲2.4 9,202,167,179,200,158,38,211,160,218,
9.学生成绩和教师评估的问题
The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
15年前,Omega大学实施了一项新措施,鼓励学生对所有教授的教学效果进行评价。从那以后,Omega的教授开始给予学生更高的分数,Omega的学生成绩总平均上升了30%。未来的雇主显然认为Omega的分数贬值了;这可以解释为什么Omega的毕业生找工作时没有邻近的Alpha大学毕业生成功。为使Omega毕业生找到好工作,我们应立即停止学生对教授的评价。
--------逻辑链--------
Evaluate-> pro higher grade +30%
O < A (get job) -> grade inflated
Stop evaluate 为了 secure jobs
--------提纲--------
1.Avg分数+30%不一定是贬值了
a)Evaluate不一定很多学生参加, 它没有起作用
b)新的grade scale system, 以前的不合理,
2.O大学就业不一定差
a)两个学校生源情况没有给,可能生源O比A差很多,但是就业情况差不多
b)具体就业率, 就业质量等信息没有给
c)O和A类型不同, A是理工技术型,好就业,O是文科理论型
3.作者的建议不合理
a)停止evaluate和提高学生get job能力没有必然联系
b)其他方法secure jobs方法, 优化课程联系实际,调整专业迎合市场,
c)忽视了evaluate的好处, pro提供更好的教学
202.Kaliko岛动物灭绝的原因
Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions.
大约7000年前人类到达了Kaliko岛,在3000年内曾经生活在Kaliko岛的树林中的大型哺乳动物绝大多数已经灭绝了。然而人类并不是导致这些物种灭绝的因素,因为没有证据表明人类与这些哺乳动物有很多接触。而且,考古学家发现一些有大量鱼骨被抛弃的场所,而他们并没有发现存在大型哺乳动物骨头的类似场所,因而人类并没有猎杀这些哺乳动物。因此,一定是一些气候上的变化或其他环境因素导致了这些物种的灭绝。
--------逻辑线--------
7000YA, 人到K岛; 7000YA到4000YA, K岛的LM都死了
人不是cause, 因为no evidence, 气候,环境才是
Arch发现鱼骨, 没有发现LM骨,
--------提纲--------
1.人与LM可能有接触
a)没有证据不能代表没有, 尚未发现
b)LM的骨头被做成了工具, 或其他抛弃方式(海里)
2.没有直接接触也有可能因为间接影响
a)人类抢了LM的食物, 破坏了生物链,
3.即使不是人的关系,也不一定是气候环境, 环境的关系
a)忽略了其他原因, 疾病, 瘟疫,
167.薰衣草花香治疗失眠
A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
一种治疗失眠的偏方--薰衣草花香,现在被证明是有效的。在一次最近的调查中,30名患有慢性失眠的志愿者在三周之内每晚都在一个受监视的控制室内睡在带薰衣草花香的枕头上。在第一周,志愿者继续服用他们常用的安眠药。他们睡得很沉但醒来时很累。在第二周,他们不服用药物。结果与前一周相比他们睡得不那么沉并且感觉更累。在第三周,他们睡得比前两周时间长而且更深。这表明薰衣草在短时间内治愈了失眠。
*偏方通常是一种在传统医药中常见的植物治疗形式,这些传统医药是在现代医药服务和科技出现之前发展起来的。
--------逻辑链--------
Recent study: 30vols(有ci, 睡 ls-pillows),
1week med, sound but tired;
2week no-med, less-sound, more-tired;
3week more sound and longer than 1,2week
Ls cure ci in short time
--------提纲--------
1.实验样本有问题
a)样本太小, ci程度,身体情况没有说
2.实验标准有问题
a)Ci症状的标准是什么? Sound, tired和时间长短可以代表ci的程度吗?怎么样才能算治好
b)缺少了实验对照组, ci患者不睡ls-pillows的情况
3.其他因素,
a)其他方面改善vol的睡眠, 饮食, 日常作息, 运动
179.餐饮服务商的选择问题
The following is a memorandum written by the director of personnel to the president of the Cedar Corporation.
"It would be a mistake to rehire the Good-Taste Company to supply the food in our employee cafeteria next year. It is the second most expensive caterer in the city. In addition, its prices have risen in each of the last three years, and it refuses to provide meals for people on special diets. Just last month three employees complained to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience 'unbearable.' Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Discount is a family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry. I recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and it was delicious — an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee satisfaction."
继续雇佣Good-Taste公司在明年为我们员工餐厅提供饮食将是一个错误。它是本市价格第二贵的餐饮服务商。而且,其价格在过去三年中持续上涨,并且它拒绝为那些有特殊饮食要求的人提供服务。上个月有三名员工向我投诉说他们再也不会在员工餐厅用餐了,因为他们发现那种经历"无法忍受"。我们公司应该雇佣Discount Foods。Discount是一个本地的家族企业,它提供鱼类和禽类的多种菜单。我最近在由Discount提供服务的公司之一品尝了一份样品,味道很好,这说明雇佣Discount将会带来更高的员工满意度。
--------逻辑链--------
GT是本市第二贵, L3Y持续涨价
LM, 3员工投诉GT, no special diet
DF local, 鱼和禽manu, 作者试吃一份sample不错
--------提纲--------
1.GT不见的差
a)价格第二高, no special diet不能说明他不好
b)L3Y持续涨价, 别的餐厅涨的更厉害, 人们消费能力也在涨
c)3员工投诉, 要看整体投诉率
2.DF也不见得好
a)价格没有说, 说不定也很高
b)他们manu也不能说明他们能够满足special diet
c)试吃样品不能说明DF菜好, 作者口味不能代表全体员工
3.公司可能因为一些更加重要的原因选择GT,
a)例如餐饮卫生方面,当面临公共的饮食,卫生变很重要,GT从没有发生食物中毒事件,而DF则发生了好几次,而且的这也是GT贵的原因
200.看牙医时的男女昏厥问题
Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.
从牙医那里获得的统计数据表明在看牙医时男性昏厥的次数是女性的三倍。这一证据说明男性在接受牙科治疗时比女性更容易感到痛楚。因此,那些做广告来吸引患者的牙医应该定位于男性顾客,并同时强调他们的麻醉技术和他们的职员对于紧张和痛苦患者的敏感度。
--------逻辑线--------
Vd时, 男 = 3*女(faint), 因为男more distress
应advertise: anes-tech和sens男病人的痛
--------提纲--------
男女的数量
具体faint的情况,因素
Faint和distress没有关系是有牙齿病痛情况决定
广告的负面情况
1.Statistics不可信, 男的不一定比女的distress
a)男女数量没有说, dental问题情况也没有
2.Faint和distress没有直接联系
a)和dental问题情况有关, 疼痛太厉害了, 疼痛不会因为distress而增加
3.Adv会有副作用
a)让病人感到distress即使他们的dental问题不严重
b)绝大部分病人会首要考虑dentist的医术
158.垃圾场的规模限制
The Trash-Site Safety Council has recently conducted a statewide study of possible harmful effects of garbage sites on the health of people living near the sites. A total of five sites and 300 people were examined. The study revealed, on average, only a small statistical correlation between the proximity of homes to garbage sites and the incidence of unexplained rashes among people living in these homes. Furthermore, although it is true that people living near the largest trash sites had a slightly higher incidence of the rashes, there was otherwise no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people's health. Therefore, the council is pleased to announce that the current system of garbage sites does not pose a significant health hazard. We see no need to restrict the size of such sites in our state or to place any restrictions on the number of homes built near the sites.
垃圾场安全委员会最近对于垃圾场对住在附近的居民健康的可能危害进行了一次调查。调查一共检测了5个垃圾场和300位居民。研究发现平均而言,在垃圾场附近居住和这些居民中一种未查明原因的皮炎之间只有很小的相关性。而且,尽管住在最大的垃圾场附近的居民患皮炎的比例确实要高一些,但是垃圾场的规模和人们的健康之间是没有关联的。因此,委员会很高兴宣布现有的垃圾场系统不会对健康产生严重的健康危害。我们认为没有必要限制本州这类垃圾场的规模,或对于在垃圾场周围建造的住宅的数量加以任何限制。
--------逻辑线--------
Study: 300人, 5垃圾场
Small correlation ( UR 和 GS )
Biggest GS 有 higher UR, no other correlation -> GS大小和人们健康没有关联
不需要限制 GS大小 和 周围住宅数量
--------提纲--------
1.调查样本问题
a)5个垃圾, 300人太小了, 不具代表性, 300是不是都住在GS附近
2.调查结论有问题
a)大垃圾场的证据与作者的观点有冲突
b)作者没法证明住在垃圾周围不会有其他的健康问题
3.作者的建议不妥
a)可以对上让步
b)周内别的地区GS管理没有当地好,严重影响了周围居民的健康
c)GS大小继续增大终究会出问题
38.吃鱼可以预防感冒
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
我们注意到一种保证可以显著减少学校和工作岗位的缺席的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East Meria,鱼的消费量很高,那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然,吃较大量的鱼可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因,我们建议每天服用Ichthaid,一种从鱼油中提炼的营养物质,作为预防感冒和减少缺席率的有效措施。
--------逻辑链--------
EM鱼消费高->看医生1or2(鱼预防cold)
Cold是最常见absence原因,
所以推荐服用I(from fish oil), 减少cold减少absence
--------提纲--------
1.缺席的原因可能不准确
a)没有具体的数据
b)(让步)实际上很多人利用感冒作为借口
2.吃鱼预防预防感冒没有根据
a)EM很多感冒了但是没有去看医生
b)(让步)两个地方不能仅在一方面做类比, 很多别的因素帮助EM减少感冒
3.建议可能引起的后果
a)吃I是不是和吃鱼油相同的功能?
b)吃I的cost, side-effect是什么? |
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