高频No.1 A51的思考

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Argu51确实是一篇有趣的文章，主要反映在它的主要问题是study, hypothesis, recommendation三者之间的逻辑推理问题，而我们经常攻击的study错误倒成了细枝末节（事实上看过很多前辈的精华帖后，我也非常赞同最主要的逻辑线才是攻击的要害），因此XDF的传统让步式就显得主次颠倒了。

这样来看的话，A51有3个问题，按重要性排序分别是：hypothesis->recommendation; study->hypothesis; study本身错误。文章攻击顺序也依据重要性顺序安排为宜。
贴上自己的鄙陋之作，请拍：

ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."

The author makes recommendation that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be advised to take antibiotics in the process of their treatment. To support it, the author provides an hypothesis that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. In addition, the author cites a study which shows that the recuperation of patients who take antibiotics regularly is obviously quicker than typically expected, which the author provides to support that antibiotics could really help the healing of patients. However, careful and detailed examination reveals that this argument is well-presented, however, not so well-reasoned for several fallacies.

First of all, even if granting the hypothesis that secondary infections may prevent some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain, which has been long suspected, the author cannot reach the conclusion that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain should take antibiotics. The above hypothesis, even true, could only demonstrate that some patients who suffer from the secondary infection after severe muscle strain are well advised to take antibiotics. No evidences provided by the author to support that antibiotics could help all patients with muscle strain even there is no secondary infections. Moreover, as we all know, antibiotics should be regarded and applied with enough caution for it might have great side effect or even be dangerous for certain patients with allergy.

Secondly, the hypothesis is not well-supported by the cited study, even assuming that the result of the cited study is objective and reliable. There is no more information about whether the patients suffer from severe muscle injuries and secondary infections. In this case, no convincing conclusion could be drawn from the study to prove the hypothesis. Therefore, the hypothesis is unwarranted.

Last, the study itself has a significant flaw which makes the result of the study meaningless. The study contains two groups of patients with muscle strain. However, we should notice that the doctors of two groups are obviously different in skill - the first is a sport medicine specialist while the second is a general one. The author could not rule out the high possibility that it is due to the different skills and experience of two doctors that determine the different consequence. What's more, it is also possible that the sugar pills could affect the healing process.

To sum up, the recommendation that all patients with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics is not enough convincing. To make the conclusion more cogent, the author should pay attention on differences of the two groups in the study and provide more detailed fact that antibiotics could really help reduce the recuperation time.

(2011-2-7 下午 09:57:06)


另外在此提一问，secondary infection到底是受伤后的细菌感染，还是因为使用antibiotics导致的感染？（https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1132111&highlight=）困惑中。
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