本人第四篇argu 209~ 只有一个多星期了,特别慌神啊

raisebenUID: 2867978

TOPIC: ARGUMENT209 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
WORDS: 540
TIME: 01:57:49
DATE: 2011/2/9 13:03:40

The argument appears to be convincing at the first glance. The arguer asserts that the Fancy Toy Company should appoint Rosa Winnings instead of the current president, Pat Salvo, to expect an in increase in profits. The conclusion merely results from the facts that the profits of the toy company has fallen considerably in the last three quarters of this year, while under the leadership of the president, Rosa Winnings, the company, the net gain of Starlight Jewelry has increased dramatically. According to the statement, these situations are merely caused by the leadership of their presidents. Additionally, the author comes to this conclusion ignoring an important detail that the company has to pay Rosa twice the salary than Pat. Several logical flaws, however, make it unstable as it stands.



To begin with, even assuming the dramatically declining change in profits of the toy company, the author directly blames the decrease for the simple act of the president, Pat. There is no evidence presented that merely the leadership of Pat has anything whatsoever to do with the reduction of profits. Clearly, it is entirely possible that the inflation of the whole market has the toy company reduce the price of their things for sale, and perhaps the foreign leading company for toy making enters the local market to compete with the Fancy Company. These factors cannot be controlled just by leader of a company. The same reasoning can also apply to the Starlight Jewelry. Without ruling out these possibilities, we cannot reach the decision hiring Rosa in the place with Pat.


In addition, even if I grant that Rosa is proven effective in Starlight Jewelry, there exists no assurance that she/he will just work perfect in the Fancy Toy Company as well. Obviously, the argument, based on a false analogy, fails
to take into consideration other possible reasons for the disparity in the two companies. Common sense tells us that the industries have different attributes and characteristics, whether the mode of the production and operation in toy industries would rationally apply to jewelry industries is an unknown issue without any guarantee. So we cannot safely assume that Rosa will lead the company to reach an increase in profits, because the author gives no basis for a direct comparison between the two industries but his/her personal idea.


Last but not least, to add to lack of credibility, the arguer does not discuss the other measures to be taken can be beneficial to the profits except for resignation of the current president. There is really no data present to allow a reasonable decision to be made whether to resign the current president. To illustrate, advertising on diverse media, the improvement of product and sale service and encouraging innovation might be the solution to the problem which the toy company faced.


To sum up, the evidence provided by the author is too vague to be well-argued and revealing. The writer fails to build any casual relationship between the changing profits and a leader of a company. Only through resign the resident cannot the company find a solution to the problem, declining profits, the author needs to make a more comprehensive survey of the deep-seated reasons why the toy company happens to a profit decrease.