GRE 作文 ARGUMENT 第38题，求拍砖

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38.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

Basd on distorted logic and subjective conjecture, the new vice president of Sartorian reckons their company will possess a promissing prospect. It overlooks the effect of time as a shaping factor in the operation of free market, firstly, with an abscence(换个高级词汇) of a thoughful view of the present situation. Secondly, thongh attention of the convertion(不确定这么用对不对) of their major competitor is mentioned, the motivation is still neglected, that why they made a such dicission. Above all, as ultermiative decission of a company, it ironically, without mastering the invariant influencing profit a lot, simplely conveys the strong belief of being tenable and the implusion of making profit blindly.

It is so irresponsible that deducing what prospered before still valid at present. Taking the alternation of consumer out of consideration, especially in a free market which all elements change constantly, shows the president's naivety and unqualification. In the duration of ceasing to produce alpaca overcoats, it might vary from wearing habits, garment style, even to the material used to making cloth. Since the alpaca cloth is outdate and stocky, having a steady and superb supplier is futile, let alone makes numerous fortune for Sartorian.

Secondly, only concerning the superfical phenomenon in stead of the intrinsic essence detriment the dicission a lot. The abandon of the competitor bring in the cheerful impulsion merely which shoud inspire them to a considerable conceit about the motivition of it——alternation of domestic perferrence, eruption of homogenerous competitors, hard to maintain the dominant positon, sustainable increasing in labor, material or other expense like tax etc. of which each squeezes profit to exiguity amount.

Ultermatly, the profit factor is concerned roughly in the narration. Profit is revenue minus the material cost and wages, in addition to tax and energy expense etc. Thus, to ensure promising profit, it is necessary that guarantying high salling price and appropriate cost of the overcoat. In the memo, the lifting of price level noticed above probably implused by final cost is applied in evaluating selling price merely, without estimating the cost selectively.(cost和expense好单一，记得支付有个DISTRI...的，记不清了) Besides, unwise is it to assume  alpaca overcoat would have a satisfied price(这个词也很单调) just based on other garment(也是记得有好几个单词，AT...MENT  T....想不起) whether they are analogue or not.

To sum up, itis suspect and arduous to believe the conclusion(好单调) that producing alpaca overcoat is lucrative and some of them are too naive to convince the quality and ability of the president of Sartorian. Nevertheless, to make the argument more convincing(好单调), carrying a precise survey about the alternatives(替代品,有个SUB...的词忘了) and a comprehensive gamut involving consumer intention is necessary.(多个动作做主语应该是单数还是复数) Therfor.if the memo had included factors mentioned above, it would have ben more  thorough and logically acceptable.