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题目原文 Issue 61
People should undertake risky action only after they have carefully considered its consequences.
框架
论点:人们做决定的时候应该更果断,而不是一定要考虑很多后果之后再做。
原因一:考虑风险是因为看重利益,大多数情况风险和收益不能量化评估,与其花费时间在考虑太多风险上,不如尽全力追逐利益。
原因二:世界变化太快,今天的风险可能时候明天的机会,就更没有必要考虑太多。
不适用:可以精确量化风险和收益的还是需要好好量化。
总结略
全文:
eople who are responsible for themselves should undertake risky actions decisively rather than make decisions only after carefully evaluating its consequences.I will illustrate my position with the following points.
First,the reason that people are even considering taking risky actions is mostly for the benefit out of it, and in most cases the benefit can not be assessed in quantity, if people want to gain something from the risk, it would be a waste of time to even consider the risk. For example , me, someone who has graduated from graduate school for 4 years, is now preparing for GRE in the hope of a PHD degree in the future, which is at least another 4 years.I have to admit that it is a risky action, since I have already got a fine career and a great soulmate, of course there is a lot to lose in the process, It can be risky in certain level ,but it is the benefit I value more, which is fulfilling my dream:having a PHD degree . Of course it is risking my current life, but I do not want to give the risk too much consideration, what is important now is to work hard to gain the benefit.
Second, the whole word is changing so fast ,and some times our judgement can be wrong, then why not follow your heart instead of wasting time on carefully considering the so called consequences. There was a time in China, that it was the whole point to get a job in the government’s factory, those kinds of job were called a iron bowel,which mean having a job like that was the guarantee for a forever support of life. My grandmother told my father to give up an offer to university for a job like that, since the point of everything was to make a good living,which was already guaranteed by the iron bowel. Several years later the factory can not support its employee any more, some of them had to be fired,and the rest of them had to suffer a low payment. Everything is changing even faster nowadays, it is really hard to see today’s loss in the future , then why not just follow your heart instead of wasting time doing thorough consideration ? At least you won’t regret not to do so .
Of course,this recommendation can not be used everywhere. If you are dealing some risk that can be evaluated in quantity ,please do consider the consequences thoroughly.These considerations are exactly what most financial engineers do in their work,and these thorough considerations are also reasons of their high salary.
As illustrated up there, in most cases we can not estimate the benefit and risk precisely, and the fact that we are even thinking about evaluation is a strong evidence ,which shows how much we care the benefit,and also suggest that we should spend our time trying our best to win instead of calculating how much we might lose, not to say that in this rapidly changing world ,what we lose today might also be another opportunity. For these cases when you can estimate the benefit and risk precisely in quantity,please do so thoroughly.
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