argument45

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【题目】
45.The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

【翻译】
北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果

提纲：
1 没有证据显示苦的数量却是减少了， 猎人的报告不具代表性
2 没有证据表明全球气候变暖会导致冰融化1）冰岛地区可能气温降低2）不一定全年气温都低，只要有几个月达到低温即可
3 忽略了其他因素


18:15
While it is true that the fact mentioned in the above passage contributes to the idea that the decline of the arctic deer populations is the result of the global warming trends, it can hardly conclude that the two trends, though happen at the same time, do have some relations.

In the first place, the arguer fails to prove that the number of the arctic deer has been declined. It is alleged that the trend is discovered only by the report from local hunters, however, we can hardly make sure that the statistic must be true just by their assertion. It is possible that it is time when the arctic deer stay in the caves, or maybe the areas where the deer emerge is no longer the same as the hunter’s scope. All the conditions mentioned above may all lead the hunters to engender an illusion that the population of the deer is declining, however, the fact is counterproductive.

In the second place, even if the quantities of the deer are indeed declining, we can hardly contribute the result to the factor of the global warming. The arguer asserts that it is the trend of global warming that leads to the rise of local temperature, thus makes the ice melt. However, there seems not to be straight relations between local temperature and the global one. It is very likely that, due to some particular conditions in arctic areas, the temperature may even decline instead of rising; and the passage tells us that the survival condition for the arctic deer is the temperature, cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea. That is to say, if there are some few months in a year, cold enough to make the ice freeze, the deer can live as well as before. However, the arguer makes a false generalization that the temperature must keep low enough all the year.

Last but not least, the arguer fails to rule out other possibilities for the decline of the number of the deer. For example: the excessive hunting for some commercial purposes, which leads to not only the extinction of the species, but also the disaster of the local people; or the natural selection of the species, which is the rule and principle of the environment to promote the evolution of the animals. Only through a more careful investigation can we finally draw a decisive conclusion.

All in all, the arguer alleged that the decline of the number of the deer seems to be resulted from the effect of global warming, however, after deliberation, there seems to be more details to be clarified. More details and information should be taken into consideration to strengthen the assertion.

18:39