argument117 Smile-A组第六次作业

EmmanuelleUID: 2231740

TOPIC: ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

提纲：
1 引用得调查可信性值得怀疑。
2 办公用品销售没有显著上升是过去得趋势，将来不一定还是这样。
3 作者得假设即销售没有上升是由于人们更多地在家工作导致没有得到证实。其他原因没有排除。
4 没有比较，不能得出结论办公用品盈利最多。

In this memo the manager of Valu-mart stores asserts that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of out stores after taking changes like increasing the stock of home office machines and supplies at all stores basing on a survey which reports that people take more work at home. The speaker also cites the sales of office-supply to justify the view. Though the evidence seems reasonable, careful scrutiny has reveals that it lends little credible supporting to the conclusion.

Firstly, the cited survey as evidence has not been substantiated reliable. As a survey it should has a sample sufficient in size and can represent overall people. But the manager fails to provide detailed information of the survey so it opens to possibilities that maybe the number of informant is small and they are from the same company. Even if the sample is proper, the respondents can not represent all participator. Perhaps most people who take more work home respond to the survey while the majority of informant object working at home. Without accounting these circumstances the conclusion is dubious.

Second, the manager cites a fact that Valu-mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-apply departments in the past which has several flaws that can not support the conclusion. The survey and the sales reflect the circumstance in the past. However we are not sure that the market need will keep the same in the future. Maybe in the next few years, people prefer office work and the sales of office-supply will be better.

Furthermore the manager bases on an assumption that no impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past is because people work at home longer however there is no evidence supporting the assumption. The reasons for the selling result may be various, for instance, the economy deteriorated or some other companies' products are better in quality and lower in price which attract most customs and so forth. And the speaker only points out no impressive sales in Valu-Mart but not mention the sales in other shops which leaves the possibility that Valu-Mart’s supply does not satisfy customs so their sales have not increased. Lacking of ruling out other reasons the manager can not draw any reliable conclusion.

Finally, the manager unfairly asserts that if they increase the stock of home office-supply the profit will increase too however the memo has not give any evidence that the former can cause the latter. Profit of products is decided by several facts including the quality, the price and other companies’ products. In addition, the manager has not compare Valu-mart’s other departments with office-supply department. Even if the profit of office-supply department increases largely, maybe some other department’s increases much more or it has kept highest in the past and hard to exceed.

In sum, the argument is specious lacking of evidence to prove the survey result and ruling out other reasons. To bolster it, we need more information about the survey. We also need to predict the correct trend in the future and find out the complete reason of unimpressive sales of office-supply. To better assess it, it is necessary to compare this department with others in Valu-mart.

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xinxinwUID: 2144273

In this memo the manager of Valu-mart stores asserts that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of out stores after taking changes like increasing the stock of home office machines and supplies at all stores basing on a survey which reports that people take more work at home. The speaker also cites the sales of office-supply to justify the view. Though the evidence seems reasonable, careful scrutiny has reveals that it lends little credible supporting to the conclusion.

Firstly, the cited survey as evidence has not been substantiated reliable为什么要用完成时呢？. As a survey it should has a sample sufficient in size and can represent overall people. But the manager fails to provide detailed information of the survey so it opens to possibilities that maybe the number of informant is small and they are from the same company. Even if the sample is proper, the respondents can not represent all participator. Perhaps most people who take more work home respond to the survey while the majority of informant object working at home. 这不也是采样问题么，怎么能先让步说采样没问题呢？Without accounting these circumstances the conclusion is dubious.

Second, the manager cites a fact that Valu-mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-apply departments in the past which has several flaws that can not support the conclusion. The survey and the sales reflect the circumstance in the past. However we are not sure that the market need will keep the same in the future. Maybe in the next few years, people prefer office work and the sales of office-supply will be better.勉强

Furthermore the manager bases on an assumption that no impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past is because people work at home longer however there is no evidence supporting the assumption. The reasons for the selling result may be various, for instance, the economy deteriorated or some other companies' products are better in quality and lower in price which attract most customs and so forth. And the speaker only points out no impressive sales in Valu-Mart but not mention the sales in other shops which leaves the possibility that Valu-Mart’s supply does not satisfy customs so their sales have not increased. Lacking of ruling out other reasons the manager can not draw any reliable conclusion.

Finally, the manager unfairly asserts that if they increase the stock of home office-supply the profit will increase too however the memo has not give any evidence that the former can cause the latter. Profit of products is decided by several facts including the quality, the price and other companies’ products. In addition, the manager has not compare Valu-mart’s other departments with office-supply department. Even if the profit of office-supply department increases largely, maybe some other department’s increases much more or it has kept highest in the past and hard to exceed.

In sum, the argument is specious lacking of evidence to prove the survey result and ruling out other reasons. To bolster it, we need more information about the survey. We also need to predict the correct trend in the future and find out the complete reason of unimpressive sales of office-supply. To better assess it, it is necessary to compare this department with others in Valu-mart.