Argument65 【Persistence 小组】第20次作业

iamstoicUID: 2294314

65The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

In this memo, the arguer attempts to convince us that the best way to increase profits in all of the cheese stores is to discontinue stocking many of the imported cheese and focus mainly on domestic cheeses. To bolster this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin ranked among the five best-selling chesses at the newest store last year. Additionally, he/she cites a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine which suggests an rising preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

First and foremost, the first evidence the author presented to support the argument is questionable. First, the author assumes that the domestic cheeses which ranked among the five best-selling last year will also be the most popular cheeses in the future. Yet this might not be the case in that it is entirely possible that consumers will no longer purchase the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin probably because they will try other sorts of cheese, maybe imported from foreign countries, and find some of these superior to the domestic ones. Second, another problem with it is that it assumes that the newest store’s condition could apply to all the stores in the company. However, it might be the case that the best-selling cheeses at other stores were all imported cheeses rather than domestic cheeses. Third, the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin were the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store, but it does not indicate that the other domestic cheeses would be as popular as these cheeses. Perhaps only this cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin excel the imported ones which surpass all other domestic cheeses. In short, since the memo has not ruled out all other possibilities, the author cannot persuade me that the company should stop stocking many of the imported cheeses and concentrate on domestic cheeses.

Furthermore, the author provides no evidence that the result of the survey is statistically reliable. He/she must show that the subscribers surveyed constitute a large sample of all the potential consumers, and that these subscribers are representative of the potential consumers in general. Without evidence of the survey’s reliability, it is unfair to say that people will prefer the domestic cheeses to the imported ones.

Additionally, even if one accepts that domestic cheeses are more popular than the imported cheeses and therefore more domestic ones are sold, it is entirely possible that the expenses of the domestic cheeses will offset the revenue, whereas the expenses of the imported ones are lower than the revenues of the them due to the higher price. Hence, without taking into account these possibilities, the author cannot recommend what the best way to improve profits is, since the profit is a factor not only of sales but also of its costs as well as its revenue.  

In the final analysis, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidences cited in the memo cannot lend strong support to what the author asserts. To better evaluate the argument I would need to know (1) whether the domestic cheeses such as cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin are the best-selling cheeses in the future; (2) what are the five best-selling cheeses among the overall inventory and at all the stores except the newest one; (3) what are more profitable, domestic cheeses or imported ones.



[ 本帖最后由 iamstoic 于 2007-2-20 00:41 编辑 ]