Argument59 飞越dreams小组第2次作业

syjsss213UID: 2415289

TOPIC: ARGUMENT59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS: 324          TIME: 70min+

In this argument, the author concludes that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. To support his argument, the arguer provides statistical evidence that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics took place in the years when there was heavy sunspot activity. However, the statement alone does not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion.

To begin with, the author commits a fallacy of concurrence. The six worst worldwide flu epidemics occurring at years with sunspot heavy activity does not lend strong support to the assertion. It is entirely possible that in those years with heavy sunspot activity but except the six mentioned above people remain robust and healthy and even effortlessly restrain flu in certain districts. In short, this is merely historic coincidence. Moreover, as the author confesses, based upon evidence cited from available medical records, the preciseness about sunspot activity is open to doubt and requires further astrological reassurance.

Secondly, the author fails to establish the casual relationship between the prolonged exposure to sun and the high risk of getting flu. It is entirely possible that the sunlight's influence on people's health functions in an indirect way. For instance, overexposed to ultraviolet rays, the genes of the flu virus undergo significant transform and contribute to profound convert of infectivity. And in such a case, the prolonged exposure to the sun account for little about transmission of virus.

Finally, the author neglects other relevant factors concerning the transmission of flu. The population transport which results in overcrowd, the long-term insufficiency in medical treatment which may lead to weak immunity system, the emergency measure took by government when facing the danger of nationwide epidemic should be all included when reasoning about the flu.

In conclusion, the author fails to consider the whole situation comprehensively and provide adequate convincing evidence. To strengthen his argument, the author should make inclusive evaluation involving astrology as well as physiology.


[ 本帖最后由 syjsss213 于 2008-1-31 10:20 编辑 ]

gre_killer_wuUID: 2451830

In this argument, the author concludes that people at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. To support his argument, the arguer provides statistical evidence that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics took place in the years when there was heavy sunspot activity. However, the statement alone does not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion.

To begin with, the author commits a fallacy of concurrence. The six worst worldwide flu epidemics occurring at years with sunspot heavy activity does not lend strong support to the assertion. It is entirely possible that in those years with heavy sunspot activity but except the six mentioned above people remain robust and healthy and even effortlessly restrain flu in certain districts. In short, this is merely historic coincidence. Moreover, as the author confesses, based upon evidence cited from available medical records, the preciseness about sunspot activity is open to doubt and requires further astrological reassurance.
作者并不是从医疗记录中得知太阳黑子活动的，他只提到严重的流感是发生在哪6年，然后才提到这6年的太阳黑子活动情况。红色部分是没准确把握题意的结果。另外，astrology是占星学，astronomy才是天文学。

Secondly, the author fails to establish the casual relationship between the prolonged exposure to sun and the high risk of getting flu. It is entirely possible that the sunlight's influence on people's health functions in an indirect way. For instance, overexposed to ultraviolet rays, the genes of the flu virus undergo significant transform and contribute to profound convert of infectivity. (very good)And in such a case, the prolonged exposure to the sun account for little about transmission of virus.

Finally, the author neglects other relevant factors concerning the transmission of flu. The population transport which results in overcrowd, the long-term insufficiency in medical treatment which may lead to weak immunity system, the emergency measure took by government when facing the danger of nationwide epidemic should be all included when reasoning about the flu.
这一段的他因列举得比较充分

In conclusion, the author fails to consider the whole situation comprehensively and provide adequate convincing evidence. To strengthen his argument, the author should make inclusive evaluation involving astrology as well as physiology.

以后要注意准确地把握题意

PS：我也是华工的，数学系，你呢？