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TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
WORDS: 447 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-2-17 下午 03:37:07
The author concluded that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. To support his conclusion, the author cited the fact of controls and a hypothesis which seemed proved by the controls. However, after close scrutiny of the argument, I find some logic flaws which might have lead to an opposite conclusion of the author's.
An threshold problem is the hypothesis--that the antibiotic plays a vital role in the faster healing of secondary infections--which seemed proved by the groups cited by the author. This is certainly not the case in three respects.
Firstly, the results of the controls could not prove that it is the antibiotics that accelerate the healing speed. As mentioned above, the group of people who are given sugar pills still recuperated. Although they are told that the medicine are antibiotics, it is actually not. THus, we may assume that other factors--such like their psychological influence--that determine the healing. And the faster speed of recuperation are due to other reasons, as discussed below.
Secondly, we are not told the backgrounds of the two groups. If we assume that the first group are all younger and stronger man, who exercise more and have more powerful health system; on the contrary, the other group are constituted of the elderly or the ones who are easy to be ill, then the faster speed of recuperation may be attribute to the their health base differences.
Thirdly, the author fails to take into account the doctors. The doctor of the first group is the one specializing in sports medicine. Thus, he might take some other measures to help healing, like suggesting the patients to take proper amount of sports and the forbidden notices on diets. While the doctor of the second group is just a general physician, who might lack such experiences or even make wrong-headed advices to the patients which might boggle down their treatment.
Thus, without other facts to rule out the influence from the differences in doctors and the patients, the author could not convince me that it is the antibiotic that makes the faster speed of recuperation.
Even it is the antibiotics that makes the faster speed of recuperation. The author assumes that all patients diagnosed with muscle strain were sure to get the secondary infections. However, the author cited no evidence or fact to support the assumption. Moreover, while considering that the hypothesis are just concerning the patients with severe strain, and all patients include the case about light muscle strain and the mis-diagnosed (misdiagnosis), plus the untold side-affect from antibiotics which may do harm to human, the author's conclusion is sill unconvincing. |
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