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发表于 2010-1-23 18:09:49 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由丢手绢于 2010-1-23 18:15 编辑

Aregument167
A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now
been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic
insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a
controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week,
volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept
soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers
discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than
the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the
volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks.
This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to
traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of
modern medical services and technology.

1．调查条件没有说清，不能推出调查结果。
2．样本取量过少、不随机，不能代表普遍现象，结果不可信。
3．在三周之内使睡眠时间长、睡得沉不代表短期内治疗了失眠。
Merely based on the unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the author draws the conclusion that lavender is effective in curing the insomnia within a short period of time. To substantiate the conclusion, the argument presents a recent study, in which 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept on lavender-scented pillows for three weeks. At first glance the argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that it suffers from three logic flaws.
To begin with, with the unclear survey condition, people cannot presumptuously make the study result. In this study, author doesn’t mention if these volunteers took sleeping medication or not in the third week, which makes us can’t tell the real reason causes the survey result. If they took the medication, it is highly possible that it is the sleeping medical responsible for the result. Additionally, the study did not give a detailed data about volunteers’ sleeping environment, which we know is vital to sleeping condition. As volunteers slept in a controlled room when they took the survey, which means they had changed their usual sleeping environment, we can not exclude the possibility that the changed sleeping environment may have some impact on survey result. In general, with out a detailed study data we can not arbitrarily make the survey result.
Second, even assuming the study data is detailed enough, the survey is till not unreliable because of the survey range. In this study, only thirty people took the test. The result might be attributable only to those particular individuals and particular chronic insomnia. Hence the effect of lavender might not apply to generalization insomnia. In addition, even if the survey was broader, one must consider whether it was limited in certain ways, such as the survey only responds old people or people in a certain place. Factors such as these could explain the survey result and could undermine the generalizability of the survey result.
Even if one accepts the survey results, the conclusion is also questionable. The author falsely assumes that volunteers sleep deeper and longer means they get rid of insomnia. But common sense tells us insomnia means people have trouble to fall in sleep and the study does not give us any information about the condition of the volunteers’ fall-in-sleep process. So we can not draw the conclusion that lavender can cure insomnia due to lavender keeps people sleep longer and deeper.
To sum up, neither the survey range nor the survey condition is dependable. Furthermore, there is no clear connection between the survey result and the author’ conclusion. To make the argument more logical, I recommend the author provide more details about the survey and make a reasonable conclusion based on the survey result. Included the given factors, the argument can be more through and logically acceptable.

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