Issue 184 theorize和 data的先后 欢迎拍哈~

nieyongUID: 2742661

Issue 184. It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data.
time consumed: 65 mins
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The development of human society is largely based on theories put forward continuously. The speaker asserts that before one has data, it's a serious error to theorize. I agree insofar as insufficient data may sometimes contribute to flaws that cannot be ignored. However, in some situations, certain experiments which are supposed to get the data are impossible to conduct; putting off the theory is not provident.


In an essential aspect I agree with the contention of the speaker. Before gaining the data, we are unable to get a thorough analysis of the phenomena we come across, thus unexpected fallacies hide behind. To run a company successfully, one should every now and then make sure that statement of accounts are in good condition, keeping track of the company's all kinds of statistics is also of great significance. Based on the data researched, one could finally establish sophisticated strategies to the development of the company without potential false judgment. It also applies to the policies made by the government. Usually, Questionnaires and hearings are held to obtain data to make it more suitable for the majority.Insufficient data may lead to the policy lack of equality and representativeness. Without data, one's theory could be a total failure.


Furthermore, early theorization may ossify people's way of thought and therefore block the development of it afterwards. The majority will easily take theories for granted once it established. Early ego-driven philosophers, Aristotle for example, put forward their theories in ancient times and deeply influenced people's point of view. When Copernicus established his heliocentrism, numerous abuse even vilification was thrown on his theory. What's more, one of his supporters, Bruno, was burned at the stake by extreme authorities. Former theory, which was put forward by insufficient data, was the huge obstacle to the right and scientific new theory. Not to exaggerate, theories before one has data can be a great challenge to the evolving of the human society.


However, in the realm of natural science, it is acceptable for one to make educated guesses before one has data due to difficulties in obtaining it. One apt illustration involves Stephen Hawking, whose theoretical prediction that black holes should emit radiation, which is today known as Hawking radiation. According to the scientific limit, we are unable to get accurate statistics about the black hole, let alone make experiments on it. The approach to theorize is called thought experiment which is never carried out, but led to a successful theory that was proven by other empirical means. Under such circumstances, data is not a must; theories which can explain what we have come across are correct ones.


In conclusion, I agree insofar with the speaker because theories based on data are usually not theories but somewhat “miracles”. More importantly, they may have the potential to counteract the development afterwards. Nevertheless, when it comes to particular experiments which are impossible to be carried out, we should reconsider the issue. After all, any theory that can apply to our society is right.



欢迎猛拍~！！

water5045UID: 2688074

恩

nieyongUID: 2742661

自己顶一下~~

nieyongUID: 2742661

自己再顶一下~~

rachelwang712UID: 2757860

第一发帖：
1有几个小的grammar mistake。
2第二段有些跳跃了，我觉得你直接从没有data跳到无法做decision.当中data的作用可以更加地递进地写一下
3.其实我觉得你的第三段有些小偏题，不能theorize before data主要是data的作用，那两个例子里只是因循守旧的问题，不是data的问题
4让步段很好啊。
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以上
那个，我想求，组一个作文互改小组吧。

nieyongUID: 2742661

5# rachelwang712

好啊~~你还加了哪些人啊？？你准备得怎么样了啊？？什么时候考啊？？

rachelwang712UID: 2757860

6# nieyong 我要四月份呢，但是三月有一些事情，所以现在就开始准备起来了。