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本帖最后由 yuanlinqinggre 于 2010-4-17 23:03 编辑
【1010G精英组】ISSUE&ARGU 习作 by yuanlinqinggre
TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 673
TIME: 00:60:00
DATE: 2010-4-17 10:59:25
The author concludes in the article that increase level of melatonin before birth serve to shyness during infancy and this shyness is likely to continue into later life. In order to corroborate his conclusion, the author cites both study concerning 25 infants and a follow up study. Yet, further speculation on the ratiocination of the argument will reveal that the conclusion is based on several unjustified assumptions, in which case the argument is lucid but unpersuasive.
Firstly, the study conducted thirteen years ago accomplishes nothing towards validating the conclusion that increases in the level of melatonin is relevant to those sighs of mild distress. Since the author fails to provide compelling evidence that infants who participated in the study are representative of all the infants, it is entirely possible that the sample of the study is not sufficient enough to reach any conclusion. Perhaps, these infants happen to get a same kind of disease whose symptom is mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. Thus, lacking evidence that the sample of the study is sufficient, I remain doubtful about the basis of the conclusion that those signs shown on these infants are resulted from the change in the level of melatonin, let alone about his conclusion.
Moreover, even assuming that infants who have participated in the study are well representative of all the infants, the conclusion still relies on the assumption that no other factors are able to affect brain functions. However, the author offers no validate evidence to justify this pivot assumption. For that matter, it is not presumptuous to say that some other factors, such as humility, may also affect some brain functions as well. Perhaps, humility in autumn is too low, which may also cast affection of infants brain functions. Or increase in level of melatonin even results in opposite signs on infants, in which case some other factors may be responsible for the symptom. These two scenarios, if true, would be reasonable enough to weaken the deduction of the argument considerably. Thus, without ruling out possible reason for those signs, the author cannot easily reach the conclusion that rise in the levels of melatonin will lead to infants' distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli.
Even assuming that augmentation in levels of melatonin will certainly result in mild distress, the author unfairly equates the actual characteristic of a person with personal opinion of his characteristic. In order words, it is just as likely that an extravert may regarded him as an introvert when compared with other extraverts. Thus, lacking evidence that these kids are actually shy, the author cannot convince me that this is the case. Even assuming those teenagers are shy, the conclusion still rests on the assumption that only growth in levels of melatonin attribute to shyness shown on those kids. Nonetheless, the author refers no prominent evidence to substantiate the assumption, in which case it is just as likely that some other factors contribute to the shyness. Perhaps, because of effect of adolescence children are likely to become shy when they are teenagers. Moreover, even assuming that shyness shown on those kids is attributable to increase in levels of melatonin, the author unfairly assumes that no other factors may affect ones' characteristic in rest of their life. Yet, this assumption is unpersuasive as stands. For that matter, it is entirely possible that factors, such as friends, may change a person's characteristic greatly. Therefore, without justifying all the assumptions above, the author cannot confidently reach his conclusion.
In sum, the ratiocination of the argument is unconvincing as it stands. In order to strengthen the argument, the author must cite evidence that the sample of the study is both sufficient and representative. Moreover, a study has to be conducted, in order to manifest the casual relationship between increase in levels of melatonin and signs of mild distress. A study concerning whether those kids are shy has to be conducted. At last, to better assess the argument, the author has to conduct a continuous study concerning the characteristic of participants.
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