issue184 欢迎拍文互改小组

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TOPIC: ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
WORDS: 495
TIME: 00:45:00
DATE: 2010-7-12 17:09:55

Should theory be based on sufficiently reliable proof and statistics? It’s not an either-or question. The more evidences collected to support a hypothesis, the more likely it be confirmed. But in some particular cases, we cannot wait for enough data to formulate our theory, which may guide experiment to verify itself.


As more and further accurate data is handled, we overthrow the previous theory and establish our new one, getting closer to reality, which may also be overthrown some day with more evidence on hand. Consider, for example, the evolution of the model of cosmos. In ancient times, confined to certain place, and seeing everything through naked eyes, our ancestors asserted our divine earth to be the center of the universe, with sun, moon, and all stars around it. During the Renaissance, Copernicus and his following scientists used accumulated astronomical data picturing the universe as everything revolving around the sun. Later, rapid social and technological development leading to more substantial and precise statistics, all those help us reestablished a model of our universe in which galaxy and extragalactic system are in motion without mutual influence. In this process, more and more available reliable data collected help reformulated the model of the cosmos. In any given time, consider the limited technology resources, the presently validated theory may turn into partial fallacy. But that doesn’t mean we should wait for all evidences turning up, and then set out. Without the temporarily theory, what is the base for us to progress? Now, there may be some flaws in the latest model, hence propelling us to collected more and precise data to further improve our theory.

In some cases, data is hard, if not impossible, to gain. To promote our technology and society to move on, the creative scientists and masters of other fields presume some propositions, even without any data, waiting for confirming or confuting. An apt illustration is the prophecy of electric-magnetic wave, which was first proposed by Maxwell in 1865. He established a theory of electric-magnetic system, interpreting many phenomenon. Equally important achievement is his prophecy of the existence of electric-magnetic wave, and its equal speed with light. All those were confirmed by Hertz in laboratory, in 1888. Even without accurate proof, this boldly creative prophecy and simultaneous properties propel our technology. In those cases, creative theorizing serves to boost the technological development.

Even have been confirmed presently, theory have to stand the test of time and further data. Such as the classical mechanical theory formulated by Newton. Once a time, it seems to be so perfect that the main structure of physics is established, all the successors need to do is decorating it. While the relative theory proposed by Einstein cause a tremendous upheaval in science. The former structure is nothing but blocks of the skyscrapers. The valid theory is only valid in given time. We should be positive to obtain new data in any field to improve our present theory. After all, the only thing keeping unchanging is change itself.

Evidences do play a crucial role in the establishing and validating of theory. Any proposition, if to be confirmed, must seek support from data. Yet, sometimes data may be guarded by theory to gain. Based on new data, we keep on improving our theory.

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