emulate 小组 第6次作业贴 andrew_zwi

Andrew_zwiUID: 2670942

【题目】Argument 53

Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn,a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑功能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段。

提纲：
1．
调查类错误： 数据不一定可靠
2．
影响因素非一


字数： 424

正文：

In this argument, a conclusion is drawn by the arguer that shyness during infancy results from increased levels of melatonin before birth and this shyness continue into later life. To substantiate this conclusion, the arguer points out the evidences that 25 infants in group showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli; and they were more possible than other infants to have been conceived in the early autumn when melatonin would naturally increase. Furthermore, more than 50 percents of these children, in a follow-up study, identified themselves as shy.

The threshold problem of this argument is that the arguer provides no evidence that the study’s results are statistically reliable. For instance, the study involved only 25 infants. And thus, it is impossible to confidently draw any conclusions about the general population from it. Besides, the argument provides no information about what percentage of these infants responded to the follow-up study; the lower the percentages, the less reliable the results of the study.

Even assuming the results of study are reliable, the arguer relies on the additional presupposition that all other factors affecting shyness during infancy have remained unchanged and similar. Yet the arguer fails to substantiate this presupposition and provide evidence to support that shyness of infants was caused by melatonin—rather than some other factors, such as the character of infants' mothers,
the food eaten by mothers , or even their life styles. Without considering and ruling out these and other factors that might have led to shyness during infancy, the author cannot justifiably conclude that increased levels of melatonin are responsible for the shyness.

Even if the arguer can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, he could not safely assume the conclusion to be true that this shyness would continue into later life Common sense and experience tell us this is not the case and a variety of other factors, such as family-life and friends they make with, also play major roles in cultivating children characters. For that matter, the melatonin might very well turn out to be largely ineffective.

In conclusion, the argument is unpersuasive and unreceptive as it stands. In order to establish a strong correlation melatonin between shyness ，the study’s samples must be sufficient in size and representative of the overall population of infants. Additionally, to better evaluate the argument, the arguer must account for all other factors that might influence characters of children and shyness during infancy. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.

AK_小儿UID: 2784558

In this argument, a conclusion is drawn by the arguer that shyness during infancy results from increased levels of melatonin before birth and this shyness continue into later life. To substantiate this conclusion, the arguer points out the evidences that 25 infants in group showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli; and they were more possible than other infants to have been conceived in the early autumn when melatonin would naturally increase. Furthermore, more than 50 percents of these children, in a follow-up study, identified themselves as shy.（稍微有些冗长，而且没有点出谬误，建议压缩一下题目不要照搬原文）

The threshold(阈值？) problem of this argument is that the arguer provides no evidence that the study’s results are statistically reliable. For instance, the study involved only 25 infants. And thus, it is impossible to confidently draw any conclusions about the general population from it. Besides, the argument provides no information about what percentage of these infants responded to the follow-up study; the lower the percentages, the less reliable the results of the study.（最后这句话没看太明白，lz是在攻击什么？）

Even assuming the results of study are reliable, the arguer relies on the additional presupposition that all other factors affecting shyness during infancy have remained unchanged and similar. Yet the arguer fails to
substantiate this presupposition and provide evidence to support that shyness of infants was caused by melatonin—rather than some other factors, such as
the character of infants' mothers,
the food eaten by mothers , or even their life styles. Without considering and ruling out these and other factors that might have led to shyness during infancy, the author cannot justifiably conclude that increased levels of melatonin are responsible for the shyness. （这一段反驳相当给力，语言句式也很好，有一点母亲产生很多melatonin不一定会传输给孩子，不提应该问题也不大）

Even if the arguer can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, he could not safely assume the conclusion to be true that this shyness would continue into later life Common sense and experience tell us this is not the case and a variety of other factors, such as family-life and friends they make with, also play major roles in cultivating children characters. For that matter, the melatonin might very well turn out to be largely ineffective.（这一段也很好，也有一点，他们认为自己害羞，是他们自己的主观看法，不具备权威性）

In conclusion, the argument is unpersuasive and unreceptive as it stands. In order to establish a strong correlation melatonin between shyness ，the study’s samples must be sufficient in size and representative of the overall population of infants. Additionally, to better evaluate the argument, the arguer must account for all other factors that might influence characters of children and shyness during infancy. Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.
这篇argument感觉很到位，有些细节没提，不过问题不大，开头稍微注意浓缩一下并点出谬误，别的什么的都很好，语言流畅，谬误反驳阐述都很给力。我写argument那几个连接词句式什么的都用到吐了，把lz的句子借走了.. 嘿嘿