Argument 38 热烈欢迎大家给我点指导啊！THX!!

麦琪的礼物kkUID: 2898054

这是我的第4篇A 写的有点迷茫了 所以希望大家可以相互交流 帮我来指导一下！万分感激！

The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Mere, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent cold, since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work; we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

10:55-11:38 2010/1/28

563words

The memo concluded that eating Ichthaid can prevent colds and decrease absenteeism, ground on the following assumptions by making a comparison of West and East Meria: colds are used as the most frequently reason for absence; people in the West visit doctor less frequently than East due to the high amount of fish consumption; Ichthaid, a kind of nutritional medicine which derived from fish oil, can substitute fish in order to prevent colds. At a first glance it seems very reasonable, but there are some logical fallacies with a close scrutiny.
First, decreasing the numbers of getting cold is not the same thing as decreasing numbers of absences. The author provided no evidence to support his assumption that colds are the most frequently used reason for absences. Even if it is the No.1 excuse for absences, it does not mean that people really get colds. Perhaps they are confronted with some emergencies which cannot tell anybody, or they possibly just have no mood for work or school. Just because cold is much more easily to get and make other people believe it, therefore, people always use it as their excuses. Without a further and clear evidence to support the author`s assumption, he or she cannot hastily draw any conclusion.
Secondly, the author relies on what might be a false analogy between West and East Meria. It is mentioned in the memo that in East Meria (EM), people only visit the doctor once or twice per year due to the high consumption of fish. Apparently, the author did not establish a sound cause-and-fact relationship between them and therefore, there are some other alternatives contribute for "less colds". It is entirely possible that the weather condition in EA is more comfortable than WA for people to live, with less harsh weather, the modest average temperature. Even though high fish consumption is the reason why people visit doctor rarely, it does not illustrate that the residents do have less colds. As a common sense, sometimes we do not need to go to hospital and only stay at home in order to get some rest, we can recover by ourselves. So less frequency of visiting doctor is not a real reflection of the resident’s health condition. Lacking such information about the residents in EA, I can hardly be persuaded by the author`s assumption based on the unwarranted analogy.
Thirdly, even though the example which EA`s high assumption led to less absences is the one that we can follow, the author`s recommendation of Ichthaid is unreliable. Ichthaid is only a supplement derived from fish oil. Can this fish oil conduct the same functions compared with real fish? Let alone the supplement of fish oil. The author offered no scientific information about how the fish can develop our immunity and the Ichithaid has the same action.
To sum up, this memo fails to authenticate his conclusion that eating fish can decrease cold in order to decline absences, for the evidence cited in the analysis dose not lead strong support to what the surveyor maintains. To make the claim more persuasive, the author needs to supply more proofs concerning how fish have an influence of people`s health. A closer investigation is necessary that the reason why people have to ask for a leave. Furthermore, I need to know whether Ichthain can be used a substitute of fish or not.

GWKUID: 2569308

我也写了一篇，和楼主互相学习。
In order to lower the occurrence ofabsenteeism in schools and workplaces, the West Meria Public Health Councilproposed a solution. The reasoning is like the following: most people didn’t goto school or work give the reason of catching cold, and a study reported thatin nearby East Mere people consumed a large amount of fish and visited doctors for cold far less frequently. So the council recommended the daily use of a nutritionalsupplement derived from fish oil to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. Thereasoning is not convincing since there are several critical flaws.

The first and most important flaw is thatcatching cold is most probably just an excuse to evade from school or work. Thecouncil didn’t present any statistic or investigation result to confirm thosewho didn’t attend school or work were really sick. If so, the whole point ofconsuming fish or nutritional supplements to prevent cold is meaningless.

Second, the study the council referred tobear question. The study said people in the nearby East Mere consumed asubstantial amount of fish and they just visited doctors once or twice a year.But merely based on these facts, we can’t come to the conclusions that peoplein East Mere is not as easily to catch cold as those in West Meria andconsuming large amount of fish is relevant to the drop of the occurrence ofcatching cold, which are obviously the conclusions the council had come to.There’s the possibility that people in East Mere don’t like to visit doctors whenthey catch cold since they think it’s just an ailment, not worth spending timeand money on it. Even if they really don’t catch cold as frequently as peoplein West Meria, the reason is perhaps that they do exercise frequently and eathealthily, not consuming fish.

Even if consuming a substantial amount offish makes people in East Mere more healthy, not easy to catch cold, whetherconsuming the nutritional supplement Ichthaid will have the same effect is notclear. Oil is just a component of whole fish, there’s the possibility that protein,Vitamin or other nutritional components other than oil renders fish thiscold-preventing property. If this is the case, consuming Ichthaid as a means toprevent cold is doomed to be ineffective.

In conclusion, the critical flaws makes thememo unconvincing to lower the occurrence of absence in schools and workplaces.In order to come to a more valid solution, we need to know whether cold isreally the reason of absence, or just an excuse. If just an excuse, finding outthe real reason is of most importance. If cold is the reason, we need toconfirm the relevance of cold and consuming fish, or find out other method toprevent cold.