5th argument 45 现在自己模板背不下来。。咋办啊 求指点

raisebenUID: 2867978

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 473
TIME: 01:12:41
DATE: 2011/2/9 15:30:37

The argument appears to be convincing at the first glance. The author hastily asserts that the decline in arctic deer populations is owing to deer being unable to follow their aged-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. The conclusion result from the correlation between reports--the deer populations are decreasing, said the local hunters---and recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt. To strengthen his point, some information about arctic deer is given. Several logical flaws, however, make it unstable as it stands.
To begin with, the argument does not give an explanation for the possibility that the samples themselves in local hunter survey are flawed. There is no information given about how many arctic deer were surveyed, or the specific locations involved. Perhaps there exist several places--habitats of the arctic deer--where it might be a large amount of arctic deer there and the populations is constant, or even increasing probably owing to more food for deer. Without ruling out all the possibilities, it is not possible to come to a proper conclusion about the accuracy of the statement.
In addition, even if I grant that the statement, said the local hunters, is believable, the argument, based on worldwide global warming trends, cannot conduct a theory for the specific location. Indeed, the global warming trends has resulted in the sea ice to melt, while it is extremely likely that the trends do not have no effect on these islands in Canada's arctic region, or just several small effects not due to the rapidly massive ice's melting. The writer does not present any detailed data to correlate these islands with any purported effects anywhere else in the global environment. Unless the author can show that the evidence that the ice there is disappearing quickly, the sweeping generalization cannot be reached.
Last but not least, even assuming that global warming trends has cause the sea ice to melt in these islands where the arctic deer live there, the author directly blames the decrease in deer populations for the act of deer being unable to move over ice from island to island when they search for food. It is entirely possible that much killing and hunting by local residents and the entering of
other kinds of species, which might eat the same food as arctic deer or need the same condition of habitats, but stronger than arctic deer, might be the real reason why the deer populations is declining. As a result, simply the phenomenon does not cause damage to the reduction of deer populations.
In short, the evidence provided by the author is too vague to be either well-argued or revealing. The author fails to build any casual relationship between global warming trends and the decrease in deer populations. To well support his assumption, there must be more comprehensive research to do.

may2UID: 2874558

本人表示只看了标题，然后表示：你想背下来的话可以参考17天的方法反复背，背书这种事儿要么是反复要么就是理解,good luck