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A 57 高频 7
25 分钟完成
The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and of health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well.
Convincing as the ratiocination it is at the first glance, further contemplation reveals that the conclusion is predicated on some dubious assumptions and biased evidences. First, the author does not provide us with concrete information involving the study. Plus, the author mistakenly enlarges the function of Zorba. Finally, the author presumptuously equals the treatment medicine with the vaccine medicine.
The first issue to be addressed is that whether the study is valid enough to be the guide. First of all, the author fails to mention the sample size which may be too small to be representative. The sample size is 50 and as a medicine study, this sample size is definitely inadequate. Moreover, the credibility and reliability of the survey is indeterminate, because the ulcers patients are directed under a doctor who may have a decisive influence on the survey. Probably, the patients take doctor's advice that they should less eat piquant food and drink more water every time and the like.
Even if the above possibilities are excluded, it is not convincing that Zorba can serve as an effective pill to treat ulcer patients. Clearly, the first-time ulcer patients are usually sensitive to the medicines that exclusively sure ulcers. However, to patients who have suffered ulcers more twice, their physical bodies may form antibodies to the medicines against ulcers. Consequently, Zobra is not so effective as it is thought to be.
Last, the author commits a fallacy what we call red herring. All the above evidences mentioned by the author are focused on the treatment to ulcers, while the conclusion turns to the prevention of ulcers. The latter term is apparently distinctive from the former. Furthermore, if a patient who never suffer ulcer regularly eat Zobra, perhaps he or she will form an antibody to the similar pills. Probably when he or she really suffer ulcers, unfortunately no medicine can cure his / or her the developed ulcer. That situation would be terrible.
To reiterate, the argument of the author is not cogent as it stands, and it is imprudent and incautious for the author to claim that Zobra can even prevent the first-time ulcers. To make this argument more acceptable, the author would have to offer us the specific number of the sample size and eliminate other factors which may impact on the impartiality and equality of the survey and prove that Zobra is effective not only to the first-time ulcer patients but also the general ulcer patients and can efficiently immune this disease. After all, this result of the survey may have direct influence on people's health. |
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