小弟拙作argue 53高频 求打分 求拍~

octttyUID: 2954920

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 508
TIME: 00:56:12
DATE: 2011/2/16 9:34:20


In the argument, the author recommends that shyness of a baby can be caused by increased levels of melatonin before birth and this shyness continues into later life. To support this recommendation, the arguer cites the fact that 25 infants with mild distress are more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn. On the basis of this evidence the author infers that because these faints' mothers' production of melatonin naturally increase in early autumn, increased levels of melatonin will cause the infants' shyness. At first glance, these facts seem to be logical, however, careful examination of them, reveals that either of them can not lend credible support to the conclusion.

First of all, conmen sense tells us that the reliability of the study rests on its statistical integrity. However, the argument fails to indicate that a group of 25 infants can represent the various kinds of infants. Perhaps, the 25 babies are somehow born unhealthy and as they grow older, they will be shy for the weakness of their bodies; the smaller the sample, the less reliable the results Moreover, different people define shy in different ways, the argument also fails to indicate that the shyness definitions of those infants are similar. In short, the arguer's study results may be inaccurate, let alone that the conclusion that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy is convincing.

Secondly, the author unfairly assumes that the melatonin will directly gives rise to the infant. He provides no evidence to substantiate these assumptions. Lacking such evidence it is entirely possible that some other factors will cause the infants to be shy . In this way, the argument's recommendation seems to be unconvincing.

Thirdly, the fact that infants' mothers' production of melatonin- a hormone will naturally increase in response to decreased daylight has nothing to do with early autumn. As is known to all, in some area especially nearby the equator, the daylight in early autumn would not observably decline. In a word, without ruling out other factors, the arguer con not hazily concludes that in early autumn, the production of melatonin will indeed increase.

Finally, even if the author can justify the foregoing assumptions, he omits that
during this 13 years, there may be other elements that may cause the infants to be shy. Perhaps, most of them are lower-birthed one so that they may be received more critics from their parents, teachers and others people than the ordinary teenagers. Without considering this factor, the author can not verify that the shyness exists before birth, but after their born.

In sum the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation the author must provide clear evidence that the group of 25 infants can represents the general babies and in early autumn the production of melatonin is indeed increase. To better assess the conclusion, the author should substantiate that after their birth, the 25 infants live in ordinary environment, and no other facts will cause their shyness.